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The National Center for Health Statistics (www.cdc .gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr64/nvsr64_12.pdf, retrieved April 25,2017 ) gave the following information on births in the United States in 2014 : $$ \begin{array}{|lr|} \hline \text { Type of Birth } & \text { Number of Births } \\ \hline \text { Single birth } & 3,848,214 \\ \text { Twins } & 135,336 \\ \text { Triplets } & 4,233 \\ \text { Quadruplets } & 246 \\ \text { Quintuplets or higher } & 47 \\ \hline \end{array} $$ Use this information to estimate the probability that a randomly selected pregnant woman who gave birth in 2014 a. delivered twins b. delivered quadruplets c. gave birth to more than a single child

Short Answer

Expert verified
The estimated probabilities for a randomly selected pregnant woman who gave birth in 2014 are as follows: a. Probability of delivering twins: \(\approx 0.0339\), b. Probability of delivering quadruplets: \(\approx 0.0000616\), and c. Probability of giving birth to more than a single child: \(\approx 0.0351\).

Step by step solution

01

Add up the total number of births in 2014

To find the total number of births in 2014, we need to add up the number of each type of birth: Total births = Single births + Twins + Triplets + Quadruplets + Quintuplets or higher Total births = 3,848,214 + 135,336 + 4,233 + 246 + 47 = 3,988,076 births
02

Estimate the probability of delivering twins

We will now calculate the probability of a woman giving birth to twins by dividing the number of twins by the total number of births: Probability(Twins) = \(\frac{\text{Number of Twins births}}{\text{Total number of births}}\) = \(\frac{135,336}{3,988,076} \approx 0.0339\)
03

Estimate the probability of delivering quadruplets

Similarly, we can calculate the probability of a woman giving birth to quadruplets by dividing the number of quadruplets by the total number of births: Probability(Quadruplets) = \(\frac{\text{Number of Quadruplets births}}{\text{Total number of births}}\) = \(\frac{246}{3,988,076} \approx 0.0000616\)
04

Estimate the probability of giving birth to more than a single child

To calculate the probability of giving birth to more than a single child, we need to add up the number of all births that are not single births and then divide the sum by the total number of births: Number of multiple births (Twins + Triplets + Quadruplets + Quintuplets or higher) = 135,336 + 4,233 + 246 + 47 = 139,862 Probability(More than one child) = \(\frac{\text{Number of multiple births}}{\text{Total number of births}}\) = \(\frac{139,862}{3,988,076} \approx 0.0351\) To summarize, the estimated probabilities are: a. Probability of delivering twins: \(\approx 0.0339\) b. Probability of delivering quadruplets: \(\approx 0.0000616\) c. Probability of giving birth to more than a single child: \(\approx 0.0351\)

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Birth Statistics
Understanding birth statistics is crucial for grasping broader patterns in health, society, and even policy-making. In our context, birth statistics refer to the numerical data related to the occurrence of births, categorized by types, such as single births, twins, triplets, and so on. This data can reveal trends such as the average family size, the rate of multiple births, and possible factors influencing these trends such as genetics, maternal age, and fertility treatments.

Interpreting this data requires a clear understanding of the categories reported and the context in which the data was collected. For instance, the statistics indicating the number of twins or triplets in a specific year can help us identify the probability of such occurrences in the population, as seen in the exercise.
Probability Calculation
Probability calculation is a fundamental concept in statistics that aids in determining how likely it is that an event will occur. It's expressed as a number between 0 and 1, where 0 indicates impossibility and 1 indicates certainty. To calculate the probability of an event, one can use the formula:
\[ P(E) = \frac{\text{Number of favorable outcomes}}{\text{Total number of possible outcomes}} \]
For instance, based on birth statistics, if you want to find out the likelihood of a woman delivering twins, you'd divide the number of twin births by the total number of births recorded.

Applying this formula to complex scenarios requires a meticulous approach to ensure each step, from data collection to calculation, is accurately handled. Such mathematical rigor ensures that the probabilities derived offer a reliable picture of the event occurring.
Data Interpretation
Data interpretation refers to the process of making sense of numerical data to discern patterns, make predictions, and inform decisions. It is the practice of critically analyzing data to deduce information that isn't immediately obvious. Interpreting data correctly is essential because it influences conclusions and can have significant implications in various fields such as medicine, economics, and public health.

In statistics, representation of data in tables or charts helps to organize information effectively, enabling easier interpretation and comparison of different data points. For instance, in our exercise, the data is neatly tabulated, making it easier to see the number of multiple birth types and to perform probability calculations. This clarity aids in understanding the likelihood of different types of births and supports conclusions drawn from the observed phenomena. Moreover, careful data interpretation allows for more informed predictions about future trends and potential anomalies.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Suppose that an individual is randomly selected from the population of all adult males living in the United States. Let \(A\) be the event that the selected individual is over 6 feet in height, and let \(B\) be the event that the selected individual is a professional basketball player. Which do you think is greater, \(P(A \mid B)\) or \(P(B \mid A) ?\) Why?

A small college has 2700 students enrolled. Consider the chance experiment of selecting a student at random. For each of the following pairs of events, indicate whether or not you think they are mutually exclusive and explain your reasoning. a. the event that the selected student is a senior and the event that the selected student is majoring in computer science. b. the event that the selected student is female and the event that the selected student is majoring in computer science. c. the event that the selected student's college residence is more than 10 miles from campus and the event that the selected student lives in a college dormitory. d. the event that the selected student is female and the event that the selected student is on the college football team.

Suppose you want to estimate the probability that a randomly selected customer at a particular grocery store will pay by credit card. Over the past 3 months, 80,500 purchases were made, and 37,100 of them were paid for by credit card. What is the estimated probability that a randomly selected customer will pay by credit card?

5.57 There are two traffic lights on Shelly's route from home to work. Let \(E\) denote the event that Shelly must stop at the first light, and define the event \(F\) in a similar manner for the second light. Suppose that \(P(E)=0.4, P(F)=0.3\) and \(P(E \cap F)=0.15 .\) In Exercise \(5.25,\) you constructed a hypothetical 1000 table to calculate the following probabilities. Now use the probability formulas of this section to find these probabilities. a. The probability that Shelly must stop for at least one light (the probability of the event \(E \cup F\) ). b. The probability that Shelly does not have to stop at either light. c. The probability that Shelly must stop at exactly one of the two lights. d. The probability that Shelly must stop only at the first light.

a. Suppose events \(E\) and \(F\) are mutually exclusive with \(P(E)=0.14\) and \(P(F)=0.76\) i. \(\quad\) What is the value of \(P(E \cap F) ?\) ii. What is the value of \(P(E \cup F)\) ? b. Suppose that for events \(A\) and \(B, P(A)=0.24, P(B)=0.24\) and \(P(A \cup B)=0.48\). Are \(A\) and \(B\) mutually exclusive? How can you tell?

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