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The report "Audience Insights: Communicating to Teens (Aged 12-17)" (2009, www.cdc.gov) described teens' attitudes about traditional media, such as TV, movies, and newspapers. In a representative sample of American teenage girls, \(41 \%\) said newspapers were boring. In a representative sample of American teenage boys, \(44 \%\) said newspapers were boring. Sample sizes were not given in the report. a. Suppose that the percentages reported were based on samples of 58 girls and 41 boys. Is there convincing evidence that the proportion of those who think that newspapers are boring is different for teenage girls and boys? Carry out a hypothesis test using \(\alpha=.05\). b. Suppose that the percentages reported were based on samples of 2000 girls and 2500 boys. Is there convincing evidence that the proportion of those who think that newspapers are boring is different for teenage girls and boys? Carry out a hypothesis test using \(\alpha=0.05\). c. Explain why the hypothesis tests in Parts (a) and (b) resulted in different conclusions.

Short Answer

Expert verified
In summary, both parts (a) and (b) carried out two-proportion z-tests to assess if there is a difference in the proportion of teenage girls and boys who think newspapers are boring. When given smaller sample sizes of 58 girls and 41 boys, there was no convincing evidence (p-value = 0.426) to support a difference in proportions. However, when the sample sizes increased to 2000 girls and 2500 boys, the results provided convincing evidence (p-value < 0.0001) to conclude that there is a difference between the proportions. The difference in conclusions can be attributed to the effect of larger sample sizes, which typically leads to more precise estimates and increased power to detect smaller differences.

Step by step solution

01

a. Hypothesis test with sample sizes of 58 girls and 41 boys

Step 1: State the hypotheses Null hypothesis (H0): There is no difference in the proportion of those who think newspapers are boring between girls and boys. (\(p_g = p_b\)) Alternative hypothesis (Ha): There is a difference in the proportion of those who think newspapers are boring between girls and boys. (\(p_g \neq p_b\)) Step 2: Calculate the test statistic We will use a two-proportion z-test to find the test statistic. \(z = \frac{(p_g - p_b) - 0}{\sqrt{\frac{p(1-p)}{n_g} + \frac{p(1-p)}{n_b}}}\) where \(p\) is the overall proportion of teens who think newspapers are boring. \(p = \frac{x_g + x_b}{n_g + n_b} = \frac{0.41(58) + 0.44(41)}{58 + 41} = \frac{23.8 + 18.04}{99} = 0.421\) Now, we'll find the z-score. \(z = \frac{(0.41-0.44)- 0}{\sqrt{\frac{0.421(1-0.421)}{58} + \frac{0.421(1-0.421)}{41}}} = -0.796\) Step 3: Determine the p-value and test the hypothesis Using a standard normal distribution table, we find that the p-value associated with a z-score of -0.796 is approximately 0.426 (two-tailed test). Since the p-value is greater than the set significance level \(\alpha = 0.05\), we fail to reject the null hypothesis. There is no convincing evidence that there is a difference in the proportion of those who think newspapers are boring between teenage girls and boys, given the sample sizes of 58 girls and 41 boys.
02

b. Hypothesis test with sample sizes of 2000 girls and 2500 boys

We will follow the same steps as before but for the larger sample sizes. Step 1: State the hypotheses No change from Part a. Step 2: Calculate the test statistic Find the overall proportion for the larger sample sizes: \(p = \frac{x_g + x_b}{n_g + n_b} = \frac{0.41(2000) + 0.44(2500)}{2000 + 2500} = \frac{820 + 1100}{4500} = 0.428\) Now, we will find the z-score for the larger sample sizes: \(z = \frac{(0.41-0.44)- 0}{\sqrt{\frac{0.428(1-0.428)}{2000} + \frac{0.428(1-0.428)}{2500}}} = -4.933\) Step 3: Determine the p-value and test the hypothesis Using a standard normal distribution table, we find that the p-value associated with a z-score of -4.933 is less than 0.0001 (two-tailed test). Since the p-value is less than the set significance level of \(\alpha = 0.05\), we reject the null hypothesis. There is convincing evidence that there is a difference in the proportion of those who think newspapers are boring between teenage girls and boys, given the larger sample sizes of 2000 girls and 2500 boys.
03

c. Explanation for different conclusions in Parts (a) and (b)

The reason Parts (a) and (b) resulted in different conclusions is the difference in sample sizes. In Part (a), we had smaller sample sizes of 58 girls and 41 boys, and the hypothesis test did not provide convincing evidence to conclude a difference between the proportions. However, in Part (b), when the sample sizes were increased to 2000 girls and 2500 boys, the hypothesis test provided convincing evidence of a difference in proportions. Larger sample sizes generally lead to a more precise estimate of the true population proportions and allow us to detect smaller differences that might be statistically significant. Thus, the increased sample size in Part (b) gave us enough power to reject the null hypothesis, whereas the smaller sample sizes in Part (a) were unable to do so.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Understanding Hypothesis Testing
Hypothesis testing is a powerful statistical method used to make decisions based on data. It's about determining if there's enough evidence to support a specific claim about a population. Here's how it works:

When conducting a hypothesis test, you start with two contradictory statements:
  • Null Hypothesis ( H_0 gt;): Assumes no effect or difference exists. It's the position of no change.
  • Alternative Hypothesis ( H_a gt;): Suggests that there is a meaningful difference or effect.
You then use sample data to gather evidence to support or reject the null hypothesis. A Two-Proportion Z-Test, for example, compares the proportions from two independent groups. In this exercise, boys and girls are the groups, and their responses to newspapers are compared to see if a differing perception exists.
Ultimately, the goal is to determine whether the evidence from the sample is strong enough to make generalizations about the population.
The Impact of Sample Size
Sample size plays a crucial role in the reliability of hypothesis testing. It affects the margin of error, the precision of your estimates, and the overall strength of the conclusions you can draw. Here’s why it matters:

1. Accuracy: Larger samples provide a more accurate reflection of the population. They decrease the margin of error.
2. Detection Power: You gain increased power to detect significant differences. This is especially important for small effect sizes.
In the given exercise, two different tests were conducted with varying sample sizes:
  • Small Samples: 58 girls and 41 boys resulted in inconclusive evidence. The small sample size may not capture the true population variation, leading to a failure in rejecting the null.
  • Large Samples: 2000 girls and 2500 boys provided strong evidence to reject the null, showing a clear difference in perception between boys and girls.
Therefore, considering an adequate sample size is key to obtaining reliable results in hypothesis testing.
Decoding the P-Value
The p-value is a crucial component in hypothesis testing. It indicates the probability of obtaining results as extreme as the ones observed, assuming the null hypothesis is true. Here's how to interpret it:

1. Small p-value (typically < 0.05 gt;): Strong evidence against the null hypothesis. Consider rejecting it.
2. Large p-value: Weak evidence against the null. You may not reject the null hypothesis.
In this exercise:
  • With small samples, the p-value was 0.426, larger than the significance level ( ext{α} = 0.05 gt;), not lending enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis.
  • With large samples, the p-value dropped to < 0.0001, significantly lower than 0.05, indicating a strong case for rejecting the null.
Thus, the p-value helps gauge the strength of your results and decide how convincing the test is. It evaluates the likelihood that the observed differences are due to random chance.
Grasping Statistical Significance
Statistical significance determines if the results of your study are likely due to something other than random chance. It's a confirmation that the results observed in your sample reflect the true situation in the population.

It's usually determined by a pre-set threshold known as the significance level ( ext{α} gt;), common value being 0.05. If the p-value is less than this level, results are considered statistically significant.
This means there's a low likelihood the results happened by mere chance, thus providing stronger evidence to support the alternative hypothesis.
In this exercise:
  • The smaller sample's result was not statistically significant; it did not provide enough evidence to claim a difference in perception between boys and girls.
  • The larger sample's result was statistically significant, allowing us to confidently claim a difference in perception.
Statistical significance is a key goal in hypothesis testing, guiding whether to believe the results and apply the findings to the broader population.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

The report titled "Digital Democracy Survey" (2016, www .deloitte.com/us/tmttrends, retrieved December 16,2016 ) stated that \(31 \%\) of the people in a representative sample of adult Americans age 33 to 49 rated a landline telephone among the three most important services that they purchase for their home. In a representative sample of adult Americans age 50 to \(68,48 \%\) rated a landline telephone as one of the top three services they purchase for their home. Suppose that the samples were independently selected and that the sample size was 600 for the 33 to 49 age group sample and 650 for the 50 to 68 age group sample. Does this data provide convincing evidence that the proportion of adult Americans age 33 to 49 who rate a landline phone in the top three is less than this proportion for adult Americans age 50 to 68 ? Test the relevant hypotheses using \(\alpha=0.05\)

The article "Most Women Oppose Having to Register for the Draft" (February \(10,2016,\) www.rasmussenreports. com, retrieved December 15,2016 ) describes a survey of likely voters in the United States. The article states that \(36 \%\) of those in a representative sample of male likely voters and \(21 \%\) of those in a representative sample of female likely voters said that they thought the United States should have a military draft. Suppose that these percentages were based on independent random samples of 500 men and 500 women. Use a significance level of 0.01 to determine if there is convincing evidence that the proportion of male likely voters who think the United States should have a military draft is different from this proportion for female likely voters.

Many fundraisers ask for donations using e-mail and text messages. The paper "Now or Never! The Effect of Deadlines on Charitable Giving: Evidence from Two Natural Field Experiments" (Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics [2016]: 1-10) describes an experiment to investigate whether the proportion of people who make a donation when asked for a donation by e-mail is different from the proportion of people who make a donation when asked for a donation in a text message. In this experiment, \(1.32 \%\) of those who received and opened an e-mail request for a donation and \(7.77 \%\) of those who received a text message asking for a donation actually made a donation. Assume that the people who received these requests were randomly assigned to one of the two groups (e-mail or text message) and suppose that the given percentages are based on sample sizes of 2000 (the actual sample sizes in the experiment were much larger). a. The study described is an experiment with two treatments. What are the two treatments? b. Is there convincing evidence that the proportion who make a donation is not the same for the two different methods? Carry out a hypothesis test using a significance level of 0.05 . c. Use a \(90 \%\) confidence interval to estimate the difference in the proportions who donate for the two different treatments.

The paper "Passenger and Cell Phone Conversations in Simulated Driving" (Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied [2008]: 392-400) describes an experiment that investigated if talking on a cell phone while driving is more distracting than talking with a passenger. Drivers were randomly assigned to one of two groups. The 40 drivers in the cell phone group talked on a cell phone while driving in a simulator. The 40 drivers in the passenger group talked with a passenger in the car while driving in the simulator. The drivers were instructed to exit the highway when they came to a rest stop. Of the drivers talking to a passenger, 21 noticed the rest stop and exited. For the drivers talking on a cell phone, 11 noticed the rest stop and exited. a. Use the given information to construct and interpret a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the difference in the proportions of drivers who would exit at the rest stop. b. Does the interval from Part (a) support the conclusion that drivers using a cell phone are more likely to miss the exit than drivers talking with a passenger? Explain how you used the confidence interval to answer this question.

In a test of hypotheses about a difference in treatment proportions, what does it mean when the null hypothesis is not rejected?

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