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The report "A Crisis in Civic Education" (American Council of Trustees and Alumni, January 2016, www.goacta.org /images/download/A_Crisis_in_Civic_Education.pdf, retrieved November 30,2016 ) summarizes data from a survey of a representative sample of 1000 adult Americans regarding their understanding of U.S. government. Only 459 of the adults in the sample were able to give a correct response to a question asking them to choose a correct definition of the Bill of Rights from a list of five possible answers. Using a significance level of \(0.01,\) determine if there is convincing evidence that less than half of adult Americans could identify the correct definition of the Bill of Rights.

Short Answer

Expert verified
Based on a hypothesis test with a significance level of 0.01, we reject the null hypothesis and conclude that there is convincing evidence that less than half of adult Americans can identify the correct definition of the Bill of Rights. The z-test statistic is -2.72, which falls into the rejection region, and the sample proportion is 0.459.

Step by step solution

01

State the hypotheses

We need to set up our null and alternative hypotheses. The null hypothesis (H0) states that there is no difference, while the alternative hypothesis (H1) states that there is a difference. H0: p = 0.5 (Half of adult Americans can identify the correct definition of the Bill of Rights) H1: p < 0.5 (Less than half of adult Americans can identify the correct definition of the Bill of Rights)
02

Identify the test statistic

Since we are dealing with proportions, we will use the z-test statistic. The formula for the z-test statistic is: \(z = \frac{\hat{p} - p_0}{\sqrt{\frac{p_0(1 - p_0)}{n}}}\) where: - \(\hat{p}\) = sample proportion - \(p_0\) = hypothesized population proportion (in this case, 0.5) - n = sample size
03

Calculate the sample proportion and test statistic

From the given information, we have: - number of correct responses = 459 - sample size n = 1000 Now, we can calculate the sample proportion: \(\hat{p} = \frac{459}{1000} = 0.459\) Next, we can calculate the z-test statistic using the formula mentioned above: \(z = \frac{0.459 - 0.5}{\sqrt{\frac{0.5(1 - 0.5)}{1000}}} = -2.72\)
04

Determine the critical value and the rejection region

Since the significance level is 0.01, we find the critical value by looking at the z-table for a one-tailed test. The critical value for a significance level of 0.01 is -2.33. The rejection region is any z-value less than -2.33.
05

Make the decision

We now compare our z-test statistic (-2.72) with the critical value (-2.33). Since -2.72 is less than -2.33, we are in the rejection region. Therefore, we reject the null hypothesis (H0).
06

Conclusion

Since we reject the null hypothesis, there is convincing evidence at a 0.01 significance level that less than half of adult Americans can identify the correct definition of the Bill of Rights.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Null and Alternative Hypotheses
Understanding the null and alternative hypotheses is crucial to hypothesis testing in statistics. These hypotheses represent competing claims about a population parameter, such as a mean or proportion, that we aim to investigate through the analysis of sample data.

The null hypothesis, symbolized as \(H_0\), is a statement of no effect or no difference, and it serves as the starting assumption for the statistical test. It represents a skeptical perspective or status quo that the test seeks to challenge. In our exercise, \(H_0\) claims that half (50%) of adult Americans can correctly identify the Bill of Rights, expressed as \(p = 0.5\).

The alternative hypothesis, denoted as \(H_1\) or \(H_a\), is the statement that the researcher wants to validate. It suggests that there is an effect or a difference that contradicts the null hypothesis. The alternative hypothesis can be one-sided (less than or greater than) or two-sided (not equal to). In this scenario, the alternative hypothesis posits that less than half of adult Americans can identify the correct definition of the Bill of Rights (\(p < 0.5\)). It is a one-sided hypothesis because we're only interested in whether the proportion is less than 0.5.
Z-test Statistic
The z-test statistic is a fundamental tool for hypothesis testing when dealing with population proportions or means. It measures the standard deviation distance that the sample statistic is from the hypothesized population parameter, assuming the null hypothesis is true.

In the context of a proportion, the z-test statistic is calculated using the formula:
\[z = \frac{\hat{p} - p_0}{\sqrt{\frac{p_0(1 - p_0)}{n}}}\]
where \(\hat{p}\) is the sample proportion, \(p_0\) is the hypothesized population proportion, and \(n\) is the sample size. This formula adjusts for the variability in the estimate due to the size of the sample, with larger samples giving more precise estimates of the population parameter.

To interpret the z-statistic, we compare it to a critical value from the standard normal distribution. If the calculated z-statistic falls into the predefined rejection region, we reject the null hypothesis, suggesting that the sample provides sufficient evidence against it. The rejection region often ties directly to the chosen significance level, and it's defined as the tail(s) of the distribution where extreme test statistics values lie.
Significance Level
The significance level, commonly denoted by \(\alpha\), is a threshold that determines when to reject the null hypothesis. It represents the probability of making a Type I error, which occurs when the null hypothesis is true, but is incorrectly rejected.

In our exercise, a significance level of \(0.01\) is chosen, which indicates a 1% risk of rejecting the null hypothesis if it is actually true. In other words, we are 99% confident that the decision to reject the null hypothesis is not made by random chance.

To use the significance level, we determine a critical value from the z-table that corresponds to the 99% confidence interval. Any z-test statistic that falls below this critical value falls into the rejection region. Considering the calculated z-test statistic of \-2.72\ falls below the critical value of \-2.33\, we reject the null hypothesis at the 1% significance level. This means that there is statistically significant evidence at the \(\alpha = 0.01\) level to support the claim that less than half of adult Americans can identify the correct definition of the Bill of Rights.

The selection of the significance level is subjective and can vary depending on the field of study or the consequences of a Type I error. The more stringent the significance level, the stronger the evidence needed to reject the null hypothesis.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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