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Chapter 1: Problem 46

A study described in Food Network Magazine (January 2012) concluded that people who push a shopping cart at a grocery store are less likely to purchase junk food than those who use a hand-held basket. a. Do you think this study was an observational study or an experiment? b. Is it reasonable to conclude that pushing a shopping cart causes people to be less likely to purchase junk food? Explain why or why not.

Short Answer

Expert verified
This study was an observational study, as no variables were manipulated by researchers. It is not reasonable to conclude that pushing a shopping cart causes people to be less likely to purchase junk food based on this observational study alone, as there might be other confounding factors involved.

Step by step solution

01

Part A: Identifying the Type of Study

To determine whether this study was an observational study or an experiment, let's give a brief definition of each. - Observational Study: A study in which the researcher simply observes and records the behavior of participants without controlling any variables. No intervention is made, and no manipulation of factors is done. - Experiment: A study in which the researcher actively manipulates one or more factors or variables to see the effects on other characteristics. Now, based on the provided information, there's no mention of researchers manipulating any variables or interventions made to the shoppers. Therefore, we can infer that this study was an observational study.
02

Part B: Assessing the Causality

In order to see if it's reasonable to conclude that pushing a shopping cart causes people to be less likely to purchase junk food, we need to determine if there's a causal relationship between using a shopping cart and purchasing less junk food. An important rule in statistics is that "correlation does not imply causation," which means that just because two variables are related doesn't necessarily mean that one caused the other. Since the Food Network Magazine conducted an observational study and not an experiment, they didn't manipulate any variables to see the cause-and-effect relationship. It is possible that there are other factors or variables (called confounding factors) that could affect the purchase of junk food, such as health consciousness, budget constraints, or a store's layout. Moreover, it could be the case that people using shopping carts are shopping for larger families and have a different set of priorities than those using hand-held baskets. So, it is not reasonable to conclude that pushing a shopping cart causes people to be less likely to purchase junk food based on this observational study alone, as there might be other factors involved rather than just the type of shopping container used by the shoppers.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Causality in Statistics
In statistics, causality refers to the relationship between two events where one event is the result of the occurrence of the other event. Essentially, it examines whether a cause-and-effect relationship exists. A cause is anything that directly produces an event, while an effect is the condition that arises from a particular cause.

Understanding causality helps in determining whether changes in one variable directly result in changes in another. This is crucial because assuming causation incorrectly can lead to misguided conclusions and decisions. For example, we might think using a shopping cart causes less junk food to be purchased, but this needs a rigorous check of cause and effect.

To establish causality, researchers typically need controlled experiments where specific variables can be manipulated to observe the effects. This is why experiments are often favored over observational studies when trying to determine causal relationships, as manipulation and control of variables help to rule out other influencing factors.
Correlation versus Causation
The phrase "correlation does not imply causation" is foundational in statistics and scientific research. Correlation indicates a relationship or association between two variables, meaning they tend to change together. However, it doesn't mean one causes the other to happen.

Let's think about pushing a shopping cart and purchasing junk food. We might notice that these two aspects are related. But just because fewer junk foods are bought by people with carts doesn't mean the cart is the cause of this behavior. It could be that people using carts have other reasons affecting their choices, such as shopping for a large family which may prioritize healthier options.

When analysing data, always be cautious about jumping to causal conclusions based on correlations alone. It is crucial to look for alternative explanations or perform further analysis through more controlled experiments.
Confounding Factors
Confounding factors are variables that can influence both the dependent and independent variables, potentially misleading the analysis of the relationship between them. These are factors that, if ignored, can suggest a false association or mask a true relationship.

In the scenario where shopping carts seem to be associated with buying less junk food, numerous confounding factors could be at play:
  • Health consciousness: Individuals using shopping carts may be more health-conscious and thus purchase less junk food overall.
  • Shopping purpose: Those with larger loads may be shopping for families and focusing on staple groceries over snacks.
  • Store environment: The layout or promotions of the store may influence how shoppers use baskets versus carts.

Identifying potential confounding factors is crucial in observational studies. Careful consideration of these factors ensures a more accurate interpretation of data and helps prevent erroneous conclusions about causality.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

For each of the following, determine whether the statistical study described is an observational study or an experiment. Give a brief explanation of your choice. a. Can choosing the right music make wine taste better? This question was investigated by a researcher at a university in Edinburgh (www.decanter.com/wine-news /montes-music-makes-wine-reach-parts-it-otherwise -couldnt-reach-82325/, retrieved April 8,2017 ). Each of 250 volunteers was assigned at random to one of five rooms where they were asked to taste and rate a glass of wine. No music was playing in one of the rooms, and a different style of music was playing in each of the other four rooms. The researcher concludedFor each of the following, determine whether the statistical study described is an observational study or an experiment. Give a brief explanation of your choice. a. Can choosing the right music make wine taste better? This question was investigated by a researcher at a university in Edinburgh (www.decanter.com/wine-news /montes-music-makes-wine-reach-parts-it-otherwise -couldnt-reach-82325/, retrieved April 8,2017 ). Each of 250 volunteers was assigned at random to one of five rooms where they were asked to taste and rate a glass of wine. No music was playing in one of the rooms, and a different style of music was playing in each of the other four rooms. The researcher concluded that cabernet sauvignon is rated more highly when bold music is played than when no music is played. b. The article "Display of Health Risk Behaviors on MySpace by Adolescents" (Archives of Pediatrics and Adolescent Medicine [2009]: 27-34) described a study of 500 publically accessible MySpace web profiles posted by 18 -year- olds. The content of each profile was analyzed and the researchers concluded that those who indicated involvement in sports or a hobby were less likely to have references to risky behavior (such as sexual references or references to substance abuse or violence). c. USA TODAY (January 29,2003 ) reported that in a study of affluent Americans (defined as those with incomes of \$ 75,000\( or more per year) \)57 \%$ indicated that they would rather have more time than more money. d. The article "Acupuncture for Bad Backs: Even Sham Therapy Works" (Time, May 12,2009 ) summarized a study conducted by researchers at the Group Health Center for Health Studies in Seattle. In this study, 638 adults with back pain were randomly assigned to one of four groups. People in group 1 received the usual care for back pain. People in group 2 received acupuncture at a set of points tailored specifically for each individual. People in group 3 received acupuncture at a standard set of points typically used in the treatment of back pain. Those in group 4 received fake acupuncture- they were poked with a toothpick at the same set of points used for the people in group 3 . Two notable conclusions from the study were: (1) patients receiving real or fake acupuncture experienced a greater reduction in pain than those receiving usual care; and (2) there was no significant difference in pain reduction between those who received real acupuncture (groups 2 and 3 ) and those who received fake acupuncture toothpick pokes.

1.31 In an experiment to assess the effect of wearing compression socks during a marathon, 20 runners in the 2013 Hartford Marathon were randomly assigned to two groups ("Compression and Clots in Athletes Who Travel," Lower Extremities Review, lermagazine.com/ler-archives/january -2016, retrieved July 2, 2017). Runners in one group wore a pair of compression socks during the marathon, while runners in the second group wore regular athletic socks. At the end of the marathon, blood samples were taken to measure variables related to preventing blood clots and speeding up recovery from exercise. a. Describe why it was important for the researchers to assign participants to one of the two groups rather than letting the participants choose which group they wanted to be in. b. The authors of the paper state that there is some evidence that suggests that wearing compression socks may result in a psychological advantage that might translate into performance gains. Suppose that instead of a response variable that was determined by a blood test, the response variable had been the time it took the runner to complete the marathon. Do you think it would be a good idea to have the runners be blind to the type of socks that they were given? Explain why or why not.

"Should You Get a Flu Shot? Your Physical and Financial Health Is on the Line" is the title of an article that appears in a blog on the WalletHub web site (December 20 , 2013, wallethub.com/blog/flu-shot-survey/1303/, retrieved September 25,2016 ). The author reported that an infectious disease expert from a top medical school in each of the 50 states was asked if he or she would recommend that the average person get a flu shot. Based on the 50 responses, it was reported that \(94 \%\) would recommend a flu shot. a. Suppose that the purpose of this survey was to estimate the percentage of all doctors who would recommend a flu shot. Would this sample be a simple random sample, a stratified sample, a systematic sample, or a convenience sample? Explain. b. Explain why an estimate of the percentage who would recommend a flu shot that was based on data from this sample should not be generalized to all doctors.

The supervisors of a rural county are interested in the proportion of property owners who support the construction of a sewer system. Because it is too costly to contact all 7000 property owners, a survey of 500 owners (selected at random) is undertaken. Describe the population and the sample for this problem.

In many digital environments, users are allowed to choose how they are represented visually online. Does the way in which people are represented online affectonline behavior? This question was examined by the authors of the paper "The Proteus Effect: The Effect of Transformed Self-Representation on Behavior" (Human Communication Research [2007]: 271-290). Participants were randomly assigned either an attractive avatar (a graphical image that represents a person) to represent them or an unattractive avatar. The researchers concluded that when interacting with a person of the opposite gender in an online virtual environment, those assigned an attractive avatar moved significantly closer to the other person than those who had been assigned an unattractive avatar. This difference was attributed to the attractiveness of the avatar. Explain why the researchers would not have been able to reach this conclusion if participants had been allowed to choose one of the two avatars (attractive, unattractive) themselves.
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