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A soft-drink machine dispenses only regular Coke and Diet Coke. Sixty percent of all purchases from this machine are diet drinks. The machine currently has 10 cans of each type. If 15 customers want to purchase drinks before the machine is restocked, what is the probability that each of the 15 is able to purchase the type of drink desired? (Hint: Let \(x\) denote the number among the 15 who want a diet drink. For which possible values of \(x\) is everyone satisfied?)

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability that each of the 15 customers is able to purchase the type of drink desired is calculated by summing the probabilities for each possible value of \(x\) from 0 to 10.

Step by step solution

01

Identify The Variable Range

Based on the hint given, define \(x\) as the number of customers who want diet drinks. As there are 15 customers and 10 cans of each drink type, \(x\) can range from 0 to 10. If \(x\) is less than 0 or greater than 10, there would not be enough cans for everyone.
02

Calculate The Total Possibilities

Calculate the total number of possibilities. This can be done by applying the binomial theorem for \(x\) number of customers who want diet drinks and \(15-x\) who want regular drinks. So, the total possibilities are \(\binom{15}{x}\) for diet Coke and \(\binom{15}{15-x}\) for regular Coke.
03

Calculate Probability For Each \(x\)

The probability that \(x\) customers desire a diet drink is \(0.6^{x}\) and the probability that \(15-x\) customers want a regular drink is \(0.4^{15-x}\). Simplifying, the probability for each \(x\) is given by \(\binom{15}{x}\) * \(0.6^{x}\) * \(0.4^{15-x}\).
04

Sum Up Probabilities

Sum up all the probabilities calculated in the previous step for \(x\) ranging from 0 to 10. Summing these probabilities will give the total probability that each of the 15 customers is able to purchase the type of drink desired.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Binomial Theorem
The binomial theorem is a powerful algebraic tool that provides a way to expand expressions raised to any positive integer power. In probability, it is particularly useful in determining the number of possible successful outcomes in a sequence of identical experiments. For example, in the original exercise, each customer choosing a drink represents an experiment. The theorem allows us to calculate the number of ways to achieve exactly a specified number of successes (e.g., choosing diet Coke) out of a total number of trials (e.g., 15 customers).

For the soft-drink problem, the binomial coefficient, denoted as \( \binom{n}{k} \), is used to compute the number of different ways \( k \) successes (customers choosing a diet drink) can occur in \( n \) trials (total customers). It is mathematically expressed as:
\[ \binom{n}{k} = \frac{n!}{k!(n-k)!} \]
where \( n! \) (n factorial) represents the product of all positive integers up to \( n \). The use of the binomial theorem in this context simplifies the complex probability calculations by reducing it to combinations and powers.

By applying this theorem, it becomes feasible to manage scenarios where outcomes have different probabilities, like in our drink choice scenario with a 60% preference for diet drinks.
Probability Distribution
In probability theory, a probability distribution specifies how probabilities are distributed across various possible outcomes. In the given exercise, we deal with a binomial probability distribution. This is appropriate when each trial (i.e., every customer choosing a drink) has two distinct outcomes, such as choosing either a diet or a regular Coke. The trials are independent, and the probability of each outcome is known.

For a binomial distribution to characterize the drink choices in our problem, two parameters are essential:
  • The number of trials \( n \), which in this scenario equals 15 (one trial per customer).
  • The probability of success for a single trial \( p \), which is 0.6 for choosing diet drinks.
The probability mass function for a binomial distribution is expressed as:
\[ P(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k} \]
where \( k \) is the specific number of successes desired (e.g., number of customers who choose diet Coke). This formula helps to create a probability distribution over the possible outcomes \( k \) from 0 to 10, representing every feasible scenario where each customer can have their preferred drink.

Understanding this helps gauge the likelihood of various outcomes and assess whether the stock of drinks is sufficient for all customer preferences.
Probability Calculation
Calculating probability involves determining the likelihood of different outcomes within a given set of possible scenarios. In the context of the exercise, we aim to calculate the total probability that all 15 customers get their desired drink.

To compute this, we must consider each value of \( x \) from 0 to 10, where \( x \) represents customers wanting diet Coke. For each \( x \), we calculate:
  • The binomial coefficient \( \binom{15}{x} \), representing the number of ways \( x \) successes can occur out of 15 trials.
  • \( 0.6^{x} \), representing the probability that \( x \) customers choose diet Coke.
  • \( 0.4^{15-x} \), representing the probability that \( 15-x \) customers choose regular Coke.
By multiplying these components, we find the probability that a specific number of customers choose diet drinks.

This probability must be summed for all acceptable values of \( x \) (0 to 10), giving a total probability for the preferred drink choices happening. This requires adding the individual probabilities, calculated as:
\[ P( ext{All customers satisfied}) = \sum_{x=0}^{10} \binom{15}{x} (0.6)^x (0.4)^{15-x} \]
This summing ensures that every possible scenario of customer satisfaction is considered, offering a comprehensive probability calculation for the soft-drink selection situation.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

The paper "The Effect of Temperature and Humidity on Size of Segregated Traffic Exhaust Particle Emissions" (Atmospheric Environment [2008]: 2369-2382) gave the following summary quantities for a measure of traffic flow (vehicles/second) during peak traffic hours. Traffic flow was recorded daily at a particular location over a long sequence of days. Mean \(=0.41\) Standard Deviation \(=0.26\) Median \(=0.45\) 5th percentile \(=0.03 \quad\) Lower quartile \(=0.18\) \(\begin{array}{ll}\text { Upper quartile } & =0.57 & \text { 95th Percentile } & =0.86\end{array}\) Based on these summary quantities, do you think that the distribution of the measure of traffic flow is approximately normal? Explain your reasoning.

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Consider the population of all one-gallon cans of dusty rose paint manufactured by a particular paint company. Suppose that a normal distribution with mean \(\mu=5 \mathrm{ml}\) and standard deviation \(\sigma=0.2 \mathrm{ml}\) is a reasonable model for the distribution of the variable \(x=\) amount of red dye in the paint mixture Use the normal distribution to calculate the following probabilities. (Hint: See Example 6.21\()\) a. \(P(x < 5.0)\) b. \(P(x < 5.4)\) c. \(P(x \leq 5.4)\) d. \(P(4.6 < x < 5.2)\) e. \(P(x > 4.5)\) f. \(P(x > 4.0)\)

Example 6.27 described a study in which a person was asked to determine which of three t-shirts had been worn by her roommate by smelling the shirts ("Sociochemosensory and Emotional Functions," Psychological Science [2009]: \(1118-\) 1123). Suppose that instead of three shirts, each participant was asked to choose among four shirts and that the process was performed five times. If a person can't identify her roommate by smell and is just picking a shirt at random, then \(x=\) number of correct identifications is a binomial random variable with \(n=5\) and \(p=\frac{1}{4}\). a. What are the possible values of \(x\) ? b. For each possible value of \(x\), find the associated probability \(p(x)\) and display the possible \(x\) values and \(p(x)\) values in a table. (Hint: See Example 6.27 ) c. Construct a histogram displaying the probability distribution of \(x\).

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