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Data on \(x=\) size of a house (in square feet) and \(y=\) amount of natural gas used (therms) during a specified period were used to fit the least squares regression line. The slope was 0.017 and the intercept was \(-5.0 .\) Houses in this data set ranged in size from 1,000 to 3,000 square feet. a. What is the equation of the least squares regression line? b. What would you predict for gas usage for a 2,100 sq. ft. house? c. What is the approximate change in gas usage associated with a 1 sq. ft. increase in size? d. Would you use the least squares regression line to predict gas usage for a 500 sq. ft. house? Why or why not?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. The equation of the least squares regression line is \(y = 0.017x - 5\).\nb. Predicted gas usage for a 2,100 sq. ft. house can be found by substituting \(x = 2100\) in the equation.\nc. The change in gas usage for a 1 sq. ft. increase in size is 0.017 therms.\nd. The least squares regression line should not be used to predict gas usage for a 500 sq. ft. house because it's an extrapolation of the current model fitted within a range from 1,000 to 3,000 sq. ft.

Step by step solution

01

Formulate the regression line equation

The equation of the least squares regression line is of the form \(y = mx + c\), where \(m\) is the slope and \(c\) is the y-intercept. In this case, the slope \(m\) is given as 0.017 and the intercept \(c\) as -5.0. So, the equation becomes \(y = 0.017x - 5\).
02

Predict gas usage for a specific house size

To predict the gas usage for a 2,100 sq. ft. house, substitute \(x = 2100\) into the regression line equation, we get \(y = 0.017 * 2100 - 5\). Calculating the expression on the right will give the predicted gas usage.
03

Interpret the meaning of the slope

The slope of the regression line (0.017) indicates the change in gas usage for a unit (1 sq. ft.) increase in size of the house. So, for a 1 sq. ft. increase in size, the gas usage would increase by 0.017 therms.
04

Determine the limitations of the model

No, the least squares regression line shouldn't be used to predict gas usage for a 500 sq. ft. house. The reason is that it's outside the given range of the data set (1,000 to 3,000 square feet) used to fit the regression line. Using it for predictions outside this range leads to extrapolation, which might not be accurate as the relationship might not hold outside the range of the given data.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Slope Interpretation
The slope of a linear regression line provides valuable insights into how two variables are related. In our case, the slope is 0.017. This means for every additional square foot of house size, the predicted increase in gas usage is 0.017 therms.

In more straightforward terms, if you increase the size of your house by one square foot, you can expect to use an extra 0.017 therms of natural gas. This slope tells us the rate at which gas usage changes relative to the size of the house.

Thus, the slope is a measure of sensitivity; it quantifies how the dependent variable (gas usage) reacts to changes in the independent variable (house size). Understanding this helps us make predictions and find trends between the variables.
Extrapolation Limitations
Extrapolation involves making predictions outside the range of the data used to fit the regression model. In the provided data set, the houses ranged from 1,000 to 3,000 square feet in size.

Predicting gas usage for a house smaller than 1,000 square feet, like 500 square feet, is extrapolation. This practice can be risky because the relationship derived from the data may not extend beyond these bounds.
  • The model might not accommodate unusual factors outside the data range.
  • The trend observed might alter, making predictions unreliable.
It is always safer to use regression models within the range of your data set when making predictions, ensuring the conclusions drawn are based on the observed trends.
Regression Analysis Prediction
Predicting outcomes using a regression line is a primary application of regression analysis. To estimate the gas usage for a house that is 2,100 square feet, you plug the size into the regression equation: \[ y = 0.017x - 5 \]This requires substituting \( x = 2100 \): \[ y = 0.017 \times 2100 - 5 \]Carrying out this calculation gives the predicted gas usage. This step illustrates the power of regression analysis, helping to make informed forecasts.

Moreover, regression analysis prediction enables decision-making in uncertain scenarios. By understanding how variables relate to each other, we can use the regression line for accurate predictions within the data’s range. Remember, predictions should be made within the data's known range to avoid the risks associated with extrapolation.

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