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According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, \(2.8 \%\) of high school students currently use electronic cigarettes. A high school counselor is concerned the use of e-cigs at her school is higher. (a) Determine the null and alternative hypotheses. (b) If the sample data indicate that the null hypothesis should not be rejected, state the conclusion of the school counselor. (c) Suppose, in fact, that the proportion of students at the counselor's high school who use electronic cigarettes is \(0.034 .\) Was a Type I or Type II error committed?

Short Answer

Expert verified
H0: p = 0.028, H1: p > 0.028. The conclusion is that the proportion is not higher than 2.8%. A Type II error was committed.

Step by step solution

01

Formulating Hypotheses

Identify the null and alternative hypotheses. The null hypothesis (H0) represents the current accepted value, while the alternative hypothesis (H1) is what the counselor is concerned about. Let p be the proportion of students who use electronic cigarettes. Null hypothesis: H0: p = 0.028 Alternative hypothesis: H1: p > 0.028
02

Conclusion Based on Sample Data

Determine the conclusion based on whether the null hypothesis is rejected or not. If the sample data indicate that the null hypothesis should not be rejected, it means there is not enough evidence to support the alternative hypothesis. Therefore, the conclusion would be that the proportion of students using electronic cigarettes is not higher than the reported 2.8%.
03

Identifying the Type of Error

Evaluate the type of error made if the sample data leads to an incorrect conclusion. In this case, if the true proportion of students who use electronic cigarettes at the school is 0.034, but the null hypothesis was not rejected, a Type II error has been committed. A Type II error occurs when the null hypothesis is mistakenly not rejected, even though the alternative hypothesis is true.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Understanding Null Hypothesis
In hypothesis testing, the null hypothesis (denoted as \(H_0\)) represents the default or accepted value. It's a statement that indicates no effect, no difference, or no change in the situation being investigated. For the school counselor's concern, the null hypothesis is that the proportion of students using electronic cigarettes is equal to the national value reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Hence, \(H_0: p = 0.028\). This means that the school counselor starts with the assumption that the usage rate at her school is 2.8%, just like the national average. Importantly, the null hypothesis provides a baseline or status quo that we attempt to test against.
Explaining Alternative Hypothesis
The alternative hypothesis (denoted as \(H_1\)) is what the researcher aims to prove or what they suspect is true. It is in direct contrast to the null hypothesis. In our example, the counselor is worried that the proportion of students using e-cigarettes at her school is higher than the national average. Therefore, the alternative hypothesis would be that the proportion \(p\) is greater than 2.8%, or \(H_1: p > 0.028\). The alternative hypothesis is crucial because it specifies the direction of the test and what we are trying to investigate or discover.
Understanding Type I Error
In hypothesis testing, a Type I error occurs when we incorrectly reject the null hypothesis when it is actually true. This is also known as a 'false positive' or an alpha error. For example, if the null hypothesis asserts that the usage of e-cigarettes is 2.8%, and we reject this hypothesis when it is indeed 2.8%, we have made a Type I error. The probability of committing a Type I error is denoted by \(\alpha\). This error can lead to incorrect conclusions and decisions being made based on faulty evidence.
Understanding Type II Error
A Type II error happens when we fail to reject the null hypothesis when it is actually false. This is known as a 'false negative' or beta error. In our scenario, if the true proportion of students using e-cigarettes at the counselor's school is 3.4%, but our test fails to reject the null hypothesis \(H_0: p = 0.028\), we have committed a Type II error. The probability of making a Type II error is denoted by \(\beta\). This type of error indicates a failure to detect a real effect or difference when one actually exists, which can lead to missed opportunities to take necessary actions or interventions.
Explaining Proportion Testing
Proportion testing is a statistical method used to determine if the proportion of a certain attribute or characteristic in a population differs from a specified value. It involves using sample data to infer about the population proportion. In our example, the counselor wants to test if the proportion of students using electronic cigarettes at her school is higher than the national rate of 2.8%. This can be tested by taking a sample of students from the school and using statistical tests to determine whether their proportion significantly exceeds 2.8%. The test involves setting up the null and alternative hypotheses, collecting sample data, and calculating test statistics to make a conclusion. Proportion testing is widely used in quality control, surveys, and public health to compare observed proportions to known values.

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