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The showcase showdown. On the popular television game show The Price Is Right, contestants can play 鈥淭he Showcase Showdown.鈥 The game involves a large wheel with 20 nickel values, 5, 10, 15, 20,鈥, 95, 100, marked on it. Contestants spin the wheel once or twice, with the objective of obtaining the highest total score without going over a dollar (100). [According to the American Statistician (August 1995), the optimal strategy for the first spinner in a three-player game is to spin a second time only if the value of the initial spin is 65 or less.] Let x represent the total score for a single contestant playing 鈥淭he Showcase Showdown.鈥 Assume a 鈥渇air鈥 wheel (i.e., a wheel with equally likely outcomes). If the total of the player鈥檚 spins exceeds 100, the total score is set to 0.

a. If the player is permitted only one spin of the wheel, find the probability distribution for x.

b. Refer to part a. Find E(x) and interpret this value

c. Refer to part a. Give a range of values within which x is likely to fall.

d. Suppose the player will spin the wheel twice, no matter what the outcome of the first spin. Find the probability distribution for x.

e. What assumption did you make to obtain the probability distribution, part d? Is it a reasonable assumption?

f. Find and for the probability distribution, part d. and interpret the results.

g. Refer to part d. What is the probability that in two spins the player鈥檚 total score exceeds a dollar (i.e., is set to 0)?

h. Suppose the player obtains a 20 on the first spin and decides to spin again. Find the probability distribution forx.

i. Refer to part h. What is the probability that the player鈥檚 total score exceeds a dollar?

j. Given the player obtains a 65 on the first spin and decides to spin again, find the probability that the player鈥檚 total score exceeds a dollar.

k. Repeat part j for different first-spin outcomes. Use this information to suggest a strategy for the one-player game.

Short Answer

Expert verified

a. The p(x)=0.05 for all the values of 鈥榵鈥.

b.On an average total score for a single contestant playing is 52.5.

c. At least of the data the range of values for wheel falls in the interval is (-5.16, 110.16).

d. The probability distribution of x is as follows

X

p(x)

X

p(x)

0

0.5250

55

0.0250

10

0.0025

60

0.0275

15

0.0050

65

0.0300

20

0.0075

70

0.0325

25

0.0100

75

0.0350

30

0.0125

80

0.0375

35

0.0150

85

0.0400

40

0.0175

90

0.0425

45

0.0200

95

0.0450

50

0.0225

100

0.0475

e. The outcomes of the wheel are equally likely.

f. The mean of x is 33.25 and the standard deviation is 38.75.

g. The probability that in two spins the player鈥檚 total score exceeds a dollar is 0.5250.

h. The probability distribution for x is as follows

X

p(x)

x

p(x)

0

0.20

60

0.05

25

0.05

65

0.05

30

0.05

70

0.05

35

0.05

75

0.05

40

0.05

80

0.05

45

0.05

85

0.05

50

0.05

90

0.05

55

0.05

95

0.05

60

0.05

100

0.05

i. The probability that in two spins the player鈥檚 total score exceeds a dollar is 0.20.

j. The probability that in two spins the player鈥檚 total score exceeds a dollar is 0.65.

k. It is clear that as the score on the first spin increases, then the probability of the players score exceeds dollar also increases.

Step by step solution

01

Calculating the probability distribution for x when the player is permitted only one spin of the wheel

a.

From the information, it is clear that a game involves large wheel with 20 nickel values.

That is,5,10,15,20,25,30,35,40,35,50,55,60,65,70,75,80,85,90,95,100

Let x represents the total score for a single contestant playing.

Since, the 20 possible outcomes are equally likely, the probability of choosing any of the outcomes is clearly 120.

The probability distribution of x is obtained below:

That is,

Px=5=120Px=10=120

Similarly for the remaining values are shown in the probability distribution table.

X

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

p(x)

role="math" localid="1663301602599" 120

120

120

120

120

120

120

120

120

120

X

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

p(x)

120

120

120

120

120

120

120

120

120

120

Hence p(x) =0.05 for all the values of 鈥榵鈥.

02

Calculating mean of x.

b.

The formula for the mean is given below

=E(x)=xp(x)

5120+10120+15120+20120+25120+30120+35120+40120+45120+50120+55120+60120+65120+70120+75120+80120+85120+90120+95120+100120=52.5

Thus, the mean of x is 52.5

On an average total score for a single contestant playing is 52

03

Calculating range of x.

c.

The formula for the variance of x is given below:

2=E(x-)2P(x)

Therefore,

5-52.520.5+10-52.520.5+15-52.520.5+20-52.520.5+25-52.520.5+30-52.520.5+35-52.520.5+40-52.520.5+45-52.520.5+50-52.520.5+55-52.520.5+60-52.520.5+65-52.520.5+70-52.520.5+75-52.520.5+80-52.520.5+85-52.520.5+90-52.520.5+95-52.520.5+100-52.520.5

The standard deviation is,

=2=831.25=2883

Thus, the standard deviation of x is 28.83.

Here, the wheel is assumed to be 鈥渇air鈥, that is the outcomes of the wheel are equally likely. Therefore, the distribution is uniform distribution because the continuous random variables appear to have the equally likely outcomes over the range of values. Since, the uniform distribution is not bell or mound shaped. Chebychev鈥檚 rule can be applied to describe the data.

Thus, the Chebychev鈥檚 rule is used in order to find the range of values.

At least34of the observations are lies between two standard deviations.

At least of the observations are lies between two standard deviations.

The observations will fall within two standard deviations of the mean is,

Thus, at least of the data the range of values for wheel falls in the interval is (-5.16,110.16).

Here, all observations are lie between two standard deviations of the mean. Hence, it is clear that, x is likely to fall in any one interval with the equal length.

04

Calculating the probability distribution for x when the player is permitted only two spin of the wheel

d.

If the player spins the wheel twice, the total outcomes are as follows:

Total outcomes=400

The sample space is as follows:

N(S)=(5,5)10,515,5100,55,1010,1015,10100,105,10010,10015,100100,100

Since, there are 400 possible outcomes which are equally likely, the probability of choosing any of the outcome is clearly 1400=0.025.

The probability distribution of x is obtained below:

Let x be the sum of the two numbers in each sample.

There is one sample in the sample space with the sum of 10.

role="math" localid="1663303082220" Px=10=1400=0.005

There are two samples in the sample space with the sum of 15.

role="math" localid="1663303088709" Px=15=2400=0.005

There are three samples in the sample space with the sum of 15.

role="math" localid="1663303094451" Px=15=2400=0.0075

Assume the wheel to be fair. If the total of the player鈥檚 spin exceeds 100, then set total score to 0. Then the probability for is obtained by adding all the probabilities and subtract it from the total probability 1.

That is,

Px=0=1-0.475=0.5250

Similarly, for the remaining values is shown in the probability distribution table.

X

p(x)

X

p(x)

0

0.5250

55

0.0250

10

0.0025

60

0.0275

15

0.0050

65

0.0300

20

0.0075

70

0.0325

25

0.0100

75

0.0350

30

0.0125

80

0.0375

35

0.0150

85

0.0400

40

0.0175

90

0.0425

45

0.0200

95

0.0450

50

0.0225

100

0.0475

05

Assumption to obtain the probability distribution

e.

Here, the wheel is assumed to be fair. That is, the outcomes of the wheel are equally likely.

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Buy-Side Analysts

Sell-Side Analysts

Mean

0.85

-0.05

Standard Deviation

1.93

0.85

Consider the probability distribution shown here

  1. Calculate 渭,蟽2补苍诲蟽.
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a. Find the mean of x.

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