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Tracking missiles with satellite imagery.The Space-BasedInfrared System (SBIRS) uses satellite imagery to detect andtrack missiles (Chance, Summer 2005). The probability thatan intruding object (e.g., a missile) will be detected on aflight track by SBIRS is .8. Consider a sample of 20 simulated tracks, each with an intruding object. Let x equal the numberof these tracks where SBIRS detects the object.

a. Demonstrate that x is (approximately) a binomial randomvariable.

b. Give the values of p and n for the binomial distribution.

c. Find P(x=15), the probability that SBIRS will detect the object on exactly 15 tracks.

d. Find P(x15), the probability that SBIRS will detect the object on at least 15 tracks.

e. FindE(x) and interpret the result.

Short Answer

Expert verified

a. x is a binomial random variable

b. Value of n is 20 and value of p is 0.8

c.px=15 is 0.1741

d.px15 is 0.8042

e.Ex is 16

Step by step solution

01

Given information

The probability that an intruding object will be detected on a flight track by SBIRS is 8. Let X be the number of these tracks where SBIRS detects the object.

02

Verifying that x is approximately a binomial random variable

a.

Given that p=0.8 and n=20

Hence, x follows a binomial distribution with parameters n=20 and p=0.8

And pdf can be given by:

PX=x=20x0.8x1-0.820-x

03

Computing the values of n and p

b.

Here the values of n and p are

p=0.8

n=20

04

Calculating the value of P(x=15)

c.

We have to calculate the probability that SBIRS will detect the object on exactly 15 tracks that is P(X=15)

PX=5=20150.8150.25=155040.03510.00032=0.1741

ThereforePX=15=0.1741

05

Calculating the value of

d.

To find the probability that SBIRS will detect the object on at least 15 tracks is PX15:

px15=px=15+px=16+px=17+px=18+px=19+px=20px15=20150.8150.205+20160.8160.204+20170.8170.20320180.8180.202+20190.8190.201+20150.8200.200px15=0.1746+0.2182+0.2054+0.1369+0.0576+0.0115=0.8042

Therefore

px15=0.8042

06

Calculating the E(x)

e.

Mean of x that is EXcan be given as:

EX=np=200.8=16

Therefore,

EX=16.

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