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Going for it on fourth down in the NFL. Refer to the Chance (Winter 2009) study of fourth-down decisions by coaches in the National Football League (NFL), Exercise 11.69 (p. 679). Recall that statisticians at California State University, Northridge, fit a straight-line model for predicting the number of points scored (y) by a team that has a first-down with a given number of yards (x) from the opposing goal line. A second model fit to data collected on five NFL teams from a recent season was the quadratic regression model, E(y)=0+1x+2x2.The regression yielded the following results: y=6.13+0.141x-0.0009x2,R2=0.226.

a) If possible, give a practical interpretation of each of the b estimates in the model.

b) Give a practical interpretation of the coefficient of determination,R2.

c) In Exercise 11.63, the coefficient of correlation for the straight-line model was reported asR2=0.18. Does this statistic alone indicate that the quadratic model is a better fit than the straight-line model? Explain.

d) What test of hypothesis would you conduct to determine if the quadratic model is a better fit than the straight-line model?

Short Answer

Expert verified

a.0 indicates the y-intercept term of the curve. It means it gives the value of E(y) whenx1=0

1indicates the magnitude of the shift in parabola due to changes in the value of x (shift parameter)

2indicates the rate of curvature of the parabola. (shape parameter).

b. Here, 23% is a very low value for R2meaning the model is not a good fit for the data.

c. When a straight-line model was fitted to the data, the value of R2was 18% while when a quadratic model is fitted to the data, the value of R2increases to 23%. This means that the quadratic model is a better fit for the data than a straight-line model. However, 23% is still a lower value meaning a better quadratic model can be used to fit the data.

d. To test whether a quadratic model is a good fit for the data, F-test needs to be done.

Step by step solution

01

Interpretation of beta estimates

0indicates the y-intercept term of the curve. It means it gives the value of E(y) whenx1=0

1indicates the magnitude of the shift in parabola due to changes in the value of x (shift parameter)

2indicates the rate of curvature of the parabola. (Shape parameter).

02

Simplification of R2

The value ofR2given here is 0.226 which denotes that about 23% of the variation in the variables can be explained by the model. A higher value ofR2means that the model is a good fit for the data while a lower value suggests otherwise.

Here, 23% is a very low value forR2meaning the model is not a good fit for the data.

03

Analysis of R2

When a straight-line model was fitted to the data, the value of R2was 18% while when a quadratic model is fitted to the data, the value of R2increases to 23%. This means that the quadratic model is a better fit for the data than a straight-line model. However, 23% is still a lower value meaning a better quadratic model can be used to fit the data.

04

Significance of the model

To test whether a quadratic model is a good fit for the data, F-test needs to be done wherethe null hypothesis is whether the model parameters are explaining the model where the beta values are zero and the alternate hypothesis is whether the beta values are non-zero.

Mathematically,

H0:1=2=0

Ha:At least one of the parameters1or2is non zero

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Question: Novelty of a vacation destination. Many tourists choose a vacation destination based on the newness or uniqueness (i.e., the novelty) of the itinerary. The relationship between novelty and vacationing golfers鈥 demographics was investigated in the Annals of Tourism Research (Vol. 29, 2002). Data were obtained from a mail survey of 393 golf vacationers to a large coastal resort in the south-eastern United States. Several measures of novelty level (on a numerical scale) were obtained for each vacationer, including 鈥渃hange from routine,鈥 鈥渢hrill,鈥 鈥渂oredom-alleviation,鈥 and 鈥渟urprise.鈥 The researcher employed four independent variables in a regression model to predict each of the novelty measures. The independent variables were x1 = number of rounds of golf per year, x2 = total number of golf vacations taken, x3 = number of years played golf, and x4 = average golf score.

  1. Give the hypothesized equation of a first-order model for y = change from routine.
  1. A test of H0: 尾3 = 0 versus Ha: 尾3< 0 yielded a p-value of .005. Interpret this result if 伪 = .01.
  1. The estimate of 尾3 was found to be negative. Based on this result (and the result of part b), the researcher concluded that 鈥渢hose who have played golf for more years are less apt to seek change from their normal routine in their golf vacations.鈥 Do you agree with this statement? Explain.
  1. The regression results for three dependent novelty measures, based on data collected for n = 393 golf vacationers, are summarized in the table below. Give the null hypothesis for testing the overall adequacy of the first-order regression model.
  1. Give the rejection region for the test, part d, for 伪 = .01.
  1. Use the test statistics reported in the table and the rejection region from part e to conduct the test for each of the dependent measures of novelty.
  1. Verify that the p-values reported in the table support your conclusions in part f.
  1. Interpret the values of R2 reported in the table.

Question:How is the number of degrees of freedom available for estimating 2(the variance of ) related to the number of independent variables in a regression model?

Write a model that relates E(y) to two independent variables鈥攐ne quantitative and one qualitative at four levels. Construct a model that allows the associated response curves to be second-order but does not allow for interaction between the two independent variables.

Question: The Excel printout below resulted from fitting the following model to n = 15 data points: y=0+1x1+2x2+

Where,

x1=(1iflevel20ifnot)x2=(1iflevel30ifnot)

Production technologies, terroir, and quality of Bordeaux wine. In addition to state-of-the-art technologies, the production of quality wine is strongly influenced by the natural endowments of the grape-growing region鈥攃alled the 鈥渢erroir.鈥 The Economic Journal (May 2008) published an empirical study of the factors that yield a quality Bordeaux wine. A quantitative measure of wine quality (y) was modeled as a function of several qualitative independent variables, including grape-picking method (manual or automated), soil type (clay, gravel, or sand), and slope orientation (east, south, west, southeast, or southwest).

  1. Create the appropriate dummy variables for each of the qualitative independent variables.
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  3. Write a model for wine quality (y) as a function of soil type. Interpret the鈥檚 in the model.
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