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The 鈥渨inner鈥檚 curse鈥 in transaction bidding. In transaction bidding, the 鈥渨inner鈥檚 curse鈥 is the miracle of the winning (or loftiest) shot price being above the anticipated value of the item being auctioned. The Review of Economics and Statistics (Aug. 2001) published a study on whether shot experience impacts the liability of the winner鈥檚 curse being. Two groups of a stab in a sealed-shot transaction were compared (1)super-experienced stab and (2) less educated stab. In the super-experienced group, 29 of 189 winning flings were above the item鈥檚 anticipated value; 32 of 149 winning flings were above the item鈥檚 anticipated value in the less-educated group.

  1. Find an estimate of p1, the true proportion of super educated stab who fell prey to the winner鈥檚 curse
  2. Find an estimate of p2, the true proportion of less-educated stab who fell prey to the winner鈥檚 curse.
  3. Construct a 90 confidence interval for p1-p2.
  4. d. Give a practical interpretation of the confidence interval, part c. Make a statement about whether shot experience impacts the liability of the winner鈥檚 curse being.

Short Answer

Expert verified

There is no evidence to conclude that the bid experience impacts the likelihood of the winner鈥檚 curse occurring.

Step by step solution

01

Step-by-Step Solution Step 1: Let x1 and x2

x1 = 29, n1 189, x2=32, andn2=149.

Let x1 be the number of winning bids above the item鈥檚 anticipated value by the super experienced group and x2 be the number of winning bids above the item鈥檚 anticipated value by the less-experienced group.

Here we have informed that 29 of 189 winning bids were above the item鈥檚 anticipated value by the super-experienced group, and 32 of the 149 winning bids were above the item鈥檚 expected value by the less-experienced group.

that means we have x1 = 29, n1 189, x2=32, andn2=149.

02

(a) Estimate the true proportion of super-experienced bidders

By definitions, the estimate of the true proportion of super-experienced bidders who fall prey to the winner鈥檚 curse (p鈧) is given as

P1=x1n1

=29189

P1=0.153

03

(b) Estimating the true proportion of less-experienced bidders

By definitions, the estimate of the true proportion of less-experienced stab who fall prey to the winner鈥檚 curse (p鈧) is given as

P2=x2n2

=32149

P2=0.215

04

(c) Estimating the difference between the population proportions (P1 – P2)

We know that a (1-伪)% confidence interval to estimate the difference between the population proportions (P1 鈥 P2) is defined as

(P1 鈥 P2)+za2p1q1n1+p2q2n2

za2=z0.12

role="math" localid="1652709934887" =z0.05

za2=1.645

Thus the 90% confidence interval estimates the difference between the population proportions.

= (P1 鈥 P2) 卤 1.645 脳p1q1n1+p2q2n2

(P1 鈥 P2) is defined as = ( 0.153 鈥 0.215) 卤 1.645 脳role="math" localid="1652710155075" 0.1531-0.153189+0.2151-0.215149

= - 0.061 卤 1.645 脳

= - 0.061 卤 0.070

= ( - 0.131, 0.009 )

Therefore the 90% confidence interval to estimate the difference between the population proportions (p1 鈥 p2 ) is obtained as (-0,131, 0.009).

05

(d) Estimate the difference between population proportions

From part (C), we are 90% confident that we estimate the difference between the population proportions. (P鈧-P2) the between -0.131 and 0.009.

Here we observe that zero passes through the 90% confidence interval.

That means there is no evidence of the difference between the population proportions.

06

Final answer

So, there is no evidence to conclude that the bid experience impacts the likelihood of the winner鈥檚 curse occurring.

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