/*! This file is auto-generated */ .wp-block-button__link{color:#fff;background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;text-decoration:none;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);font-size:1.125em}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff;text-decoration:none} Problem 14 There is something wrong in each... [FREE SOLUTION] | 91Ó°ÊÓ

91Ó°ÊÓ

There is something wrong in each of the following statements. Explain what is wrong. a. The probability that a randomly selected driver will be wearing a seat belt is .75, whereas the probability that he or she will not be wearing one is .30. b. The probability that a randomly selected car is red is 1.20 . c. The probability that a randomly selected car is red is \(.20,\) whereas the probability that a randomly selected car is a red sports car is .25.

Short Answer

Expert verified
Probabilities in each case are miscalculated; they should be between 0 and 1 and sum logically correct.

Step by step solution

01

Evaluate Statement (a)

The statement indicates that the probability a driver wears a seat belt is \(0.75\) and the probability that they don't is \(0.30\). For any complete set of mutually exclusive outcomes, the total probability must be \(1.0\). Hence, the two probabilities \(0.75\) and \(0.30\) should sum to \(1.0\), but they sum to \(1.05\). One or both of these probabilities are incorrect, as they should sum to \(1.0\).
02

Evaluate Statement (b)

The statement claims the probability that a randomly selected car is red is \(1.20\). However, probability values must be between \(0\) and \(1\). A value of \(1.20\) exceeds this range, implying an error. The probability must be corrected to a value at most \(1.0\).
03

Evaluate Statement (c)

The statement gives the probability of selecting a red car as \(0.20\) and a red sports car as \(0.25\). However, the probability of selecting a subset should not exceed the probability of the larger set. Since a red sports car is a specific type of red car, its probability (\(0.25\)) should not be greater than that of any red car (\(0.20\)). Thus, the probabilities given need adjustment to maintain this logical relationship.

Unlock Step-by-Step Solutions & Ace Your Exams!

  • Full Textbook Solutions

    Get detailed explanations and key concepts

  • Unlimited Al creation

    Al flashcards, explanations, exams and more...

  • Ads-free access

    To over 500 millions flashcards

  • Money-back guarantee

    We refund you if you fail your exam.

Over 30 million students worldwide already upgrade their learning with 91Ó°ÊÓ!

Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Mutually Exclusive Events
When thinking about probability, one essential concept is understanding *mutually exclusive events*. These are events that cannot occur at the same time. A classic example is flipping a coin; the outcome can either be heads or tails, but not both simultaneously.

If two events are mutually exclusive, their probabilities add up to 1. This is because either one event occurs, or the other does. In the case of the seat belt example from the exercise, wearing a seat belt and not wearing one are mutually exclusive events. The total probability must equal 1 since one of these events must occur.

So, when given probabilities like 0.75 and 0.30 in the statement (a), we know there's an error because their sum is 1.05, which exceeds 1. This discrepancy indicates that the probabilities do not reflect mutually exclusive events correctly.
Probability Rules
Probabilities have specific rules they must follow to make sense. Primarily, probabilities must fall between 0 and 1, inclusive. This rule is fundamental as it signifies the likelihood of an event happening, with 0 being impossible and 1 being certain.

Unfortunately, in the exercise, the claim that a red car has a probability of 1.20 breaks this cardinal rule. A probability greater than 1 is illogical in any context of probability, since it would imply something could happen more than certainly, which isn't possible. Thus, the mistake is evident in statement (b).

This serves as a reminder that when you encounter probabilities in the wild, always check that they stay within this range. It's the simplest but one of the most critical rules you'll apply time and again in probability.
Subset Probability
Subset probability involves understanding the relationship between two related events, where one is a subset of the other. In probability terms, an event that is a subset should have a probability that is equal to or less than the probability of the event it's part of.

Take the situation in statement (c): a red car and a red sports car. A red sports car is a more specific category and thus a subset of the broader category of red cars. Hence, the probability of picking a red sports car should be less than or equal to picking any red car.

The error in announcing that the probability of a random car being a red sports car is higher than just being a red car shows a misunderstanding of subset probability. Probabilities have to align logically with the hierarchy of categories, ensuring broader categories cover the possibilities of the more specific ones. So, always ensure those numerical relationships are logically consistent.

One App. One Place for Learning.

All the tools & learning materials you need for study success - in one app.

Get started for free

Most popular questions from this chapter

According to Krantz (1992, p. 111), the probability of being born on a Friday the 13th is about \(1 / 214\) a. What is the probability of not being born on a Friday the 13th? b. In any particular year, Friday the 13th can occur once, twice, or three times. Is the probability of being born on Friday the 13th the same every year? Explain. c. Explain what it means to say that the probability of being born on Friday the 13th is 1/214.

Explain why probabilities cannot always be interpreted using the relative- frequency interpretation. Give an example of when that interpretation would not apply.

A restaurant server knows that the probability that a customer will order coffee is .30, the probability that a customer will order a diet soda is. \(40,\) and the probability that a customer will request a glass of water is \(.70 .\) Explain what is wrong with his reasoning in each of the following. a. Using Rule 2 , he concludes that the probability that a customer will order either coffee or request a glass of water is \(.30+.70=1.0\) b. Using Rule 3, he concludes that the probability that a customer will order coffee and a diet soda is \((.30)(.40)=.12\)

We have seen many examples for which the term expected value seems to be a misnomer. Construct an example of a situation in which the term expected value would not seem to be a misnomer for what it represents.

Find out your yearly car insurance cost. If you don't have a car, find out the yearly cost for a friend or relative. Now assume you will either have an accident or not, and if you do, it will cost the insurance company \(\$ 5000\) more than the premium you pay. Calculate what yearly accident probability would result in a "break-even" expected value for you and the insurance company. Comment on whether you think your answer is an accurate representation of your yearly probability of having an accident.

See all solutions

Recommended explanations on Math Textbooks

View all explanations

What do you think about this solution?

We value your feedback to improve our textbook solutions.

Study anywhere. Anytime. Across all devices.