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Example 14.3 states that "the probability that a piece of checked luggage will be lost, delayed, damaged, or pilfered on a flight with a U.S. airline is \(3 / 1000\)." Interpret that statement, using the appropriate interpretation of probability.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The statement means on average, 3 out of every 1000 checked luggage items are lost, delayed, damaged, or pilfered.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding Probability

The problem states that the probability of a piece of luggage being lost, delayed, damaged, or pilfered is \( \frac{3}{1000} \). Probability represents how likely an event is to occur, expressed as a fraction or percentage. Here, it indicates how likely it is that one of these events will happen to a checked luggage item on a U.S. airline flight.
02

Expressing as Fraction and Percentage

The given probability is \( \frac{3}{1000} \). To interpret, we understand that for every 1000 pieces of luggage checked in, on average 3 will be lost, delayed, damaged, or pilfered. This can be expressed as a percentage as well: \( \frac{3}{1000} \times 100 = 0.3\% \).
03

Frequency Interpretation

In practical terms, this means that you would expect roughly 3 luggage issues (lost, delayed, damaged, or pilfered) out of every 1000 pieces of luggage checked in. It reflects the long-term frequency of this event happening over many flights.
04

Classifying the Nature of Event

This probability describes a rare event, as a 0.3% occurrence is quite low. In airline terms, this would suggest that these incidents are not very common, although they are still notable enough to be accounted for.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Frequency Interpretation
When we talk about frequency interpretation in probability, we are looking at how often an event is expected to happen over a repeated series of trials. In the context of the luggage example, the probability of \(\frac{3}{1000}\) indicates that if you checked 1000 pieces of luggage, you would expect around 3 to be lost, damaged, delayed, or pilfered.

This frequency interpretation helps illustrate the long-term behavior of this event. It is a statistical average that doesn't guarantee that exactly 3 out of every exact 1000 pieces will be affected, but rather gives us a guideline based on repeated experiences or experiments. Over large numbers of trials, actual occurrences will tend towards this ratio.

So whenever you hear probabilities expressed as frequencies, remember they provide foresight into what to expect over numerous instances, anchoring predictions in statistical data.
Expressing Probability
There are several ways to express probability, the most common being fractions, percentages, and equations. The probability of an event gives us the likelihood of it happening. In our luggage scenario, the probability is given as \(\frac{3}{1000}\).

This fraction is a precise but sometimes abstract way to express probability. For clarity, converting this fraction into a percentage makes it more relatable. Multiply by 100 to get \(\frac{3}{1000} \times 100 = 0.3\%\).

Expressing probabilities in different formats allows for better understanding based on the context. Fractions show exact ratios easily comparable with other events; percentages can be more intuitive because they relate probabilities to a scale of 100, making immediate comparison and contextual understanding possible.
Rare Events
In probability, a rare event is an event with a low probability of occurring. The luggage example, with a probability of \(\frac{3}{1000}\) or 0.3%, classifies as a rare event. This low percentage signifies that while these incidents are possible, they do not happen frequently.

Recognizing rare events is crucial in various fields, including insurance, quality control, and risk management. They require statistical attention because although occurrences are infrequent, their impact can be significant.

Rare events remind us of the importance of vigilance and preparedness, highlighting areas where preventive measures may be necessary even if the occurrence probability is small.
Probability as Percentage
Interpreting probability as a percentage is a commonly applied approach because it fits into our daily understanding easily. Percentages simplify the abstract nature of probability.

From our scenario, converting \(\frac{3}{1000}\) to 0.3% gives quick insight into how likely these luggage issues are on a relative scale. It allows us to communicate probabilities effectively, aligning them with everyday values like sales tax rates or interest rates.

Using percentages helps visually compare probabilities against each other and understand their magnitude quickly. Whether interpreting report data or decision-making in probability heavy environments, percentages help bridge the gap between technical statistical outcomes and intuitive human interpretation.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Suppose you play a carnival game that requires you to toss a ball to hit a target. The probability that you will hit the target on each play is .2 and is independent from one try to the next. You win a prize if you hit the target by the third try. a. What is the probability that you hit the target on the first try? b. What is the probability that you miss the target on the first try but hit it on the second try? c. What is the probability that you miss the target on the first and second tries but hit it on the third try? d. What is the probability that you win a prize?

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, in \(2012,\) about \(68 \%\) (.68) of children in the United States were living with both parents, \(24.4 \%\) (.244) were living with mother only, \(4 \%\) (.04) were living with father only, and \(3.6 \%\) (.036) were not living with either parent. What is the expected value for the number of parents a randomly selected child was living with? Does the concept of expected value have a meaningful interpretation for this example? Explain.

Suppose you have to cross a train track on your commute. The probability that you will have to wait for a train is \(1 / 5,\) or \(.20 .\) If you don't have to wait, the commute takes 15 minutes, but if you have to wait, it takes 20 minutes. a. What is the expected value of the time it takes you to commute? b. Is the expected value ever the actual commute time? Explain.

Figure 9.1 illustrates that \(17.8 \%\) of Caucasian girls have green eyes and \(16.9 \%\) of them have hazel eyes. a. What is the probability that a randomly selected Caucasian girl will have green eyes? b. What is the probability that a randomly selected Caucasian girl will have hazel eyes? c. What is the probability that a randomly selected Caucasian girl will have either green or hazel eyes? d. What is the probability that a randomly selected Caucasian girl will not have either green or hazel eyes?

There is something wrong in each of the following statements. Explain what is wrong. a. The probability that a randomly selected driver will be wearing a seat belt is .75, whereas the probability that he or she will not be wearing one is .30. b. The probability that a randomly selected car is red is 1.20 . c. The probability that a randomly selected car is red is \(.20,\) whereas the probability that a randomly selected car is a red sports car is .25.

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