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An electrical firm manufactures light bulbs that have a length of life that is approximately normally distributed with a standard deviation of 40 hours. If a sample of 30 bulbs has an average life of 780 hours, find a \(96 \%\) confidence interval for the population mean of all bulbs produced by this firm.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The 96% confidence interval for the population mean of all bulbs produced by this firm is between 765.07 and 794.93 hours.

Step by step solution

01

Determine the Sample Mean

The sample mean, denoted by \(X\), was provided as 780 hours.
02

Find the Z-score

Our task is to find a 96% confidence interval, which leaves 4% in both tails of the distribution, or 2% in each tail. This value corresponds to a Z score of \(Z = 2.05\) (you can find this value from a Standard Normal distribution table or use a calculator with a Inverse Normal function)
03

Substituting into the formula

Now substitute the known values into the confidence interval formula: \[780 \pm 2.05 * (40 / \sqrt{30})\]
04

Calculate the confidence interval

Doing the calculation, we find a confidence interval of \[ 780 \pm 14.93 \]
05

Interpret the result

Based on these results, we are 96% confident that the population mean is between 765.07 hours and 794.93 hours.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Normal Distribution
The concept of **normal distribution** is crucial in statistics and forms the basis for many statistical tests, including those dealing with confidence intervals. A normal distribution is a probability distribution that is symmetric about the mean, meaning most of the observations cluster around the central peak. This bell-shaped curve is important because it allows statisticians to make inferences about the population from a sample.
Since the light bulb life spans are said to be normally distributed, this implies that the average life spans tend to be around the sample mean, with fewer bulbs having extremely short or long lifespans. Understanding this nature of distribution helps in calculating probabilities and making informed decisions based on the sample data.
  • Symmetric about the mean
  • Bell-shaped curve
  • Allows for prediction and inference in data
Z-Score
A **Z-score** is a statistic that tells us how many standard deviations an element is from the mean. It's a measure of how far away a particular score is from the mean, normalized to the standard deviation. In the context of confidence intervals, the Z-score is used to determine the probability associated with a specific area under the normal distribution curve.
In the exercise, we needed a 96% confidence interval, implying that there's a 4% chance that the true mean is outside our calculated interval. To account for this, the Z-score of 2.05 was used, meaning we're looking at a range where each tail of the distribution has just 2% probability.
  • Z-score helps determine the confidence level
  • Used to compare different data points
  • Critical in calculating margins of error
Population Mean
The **population mean** refers to the average of a set of values or distribution of values for an entire population. It is a fixed value, but often unknown unless every member of the population is measured. In statistical procedures like creating confidence intervals, the goal often involves estimating the population mean using sample data.
In the exercise, we're estimating the population mean of light bulb lifespans produced by the firm. Because it's impractical to measure every bulb, a sample (in this case, 30 bulbs) is used to infer the population mean. The confidence interval helps express how much uncertainty is in this estimate.
Estimating population parameters like the mean is foundational to understanding the entire data set and making predictions. This underscores the importance of obtaining as accurate sample data as possible.
  • The average of a complete data set
  • Often unknown and estimated using sample data
  • Crucial for predictions and statistical inference
Sample Mean
The **sample mean** is the average of a set of values from a sample of a population. It is used as an estimate of the population mean and plays a pivotal role in statistical analyses. In calculations involving confidence intervals, the sample mean is often the main value around which the interval is built.
In our light bulb example, the sample mean (780 hours) serves as the best estimate for the average life expectancy of all light bulbs produced by the firm. Using this, along with other parameters like standard deviation and Z-score, we establish a range that the population mean is likely to fall into.
Calculating the sample mean provides several insights:
  • It reflects the center of the sample data distribution
  • Used as an estimator for the population mean
  • Critical starting point for forming confidence intervals

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