/*! This file is auto-generated */ .wp-block-button__link{color:#fff;background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;text-decoration:none;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);font-size:1.125em}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff;text-decoration:none} Problem 66 Consider an electrical component... [FREE SOLUTION] | 91Ó°ÊÓ

91Ó°ÊÓ

Consider an electrical component failure rate of once every 5 hours. It is important to consider the time that it takes for 2 components to fail. (a) Assuming that the gamma distribution applies, what is the mean time that it takes for failure of 2 components? (b) What is the probability that 12 hours will elapse before 2 components fail?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The mean time for failure of 2 components is 10 hours. The probability that 12 hours will elapse before 2 components fail is approximately 0.263.

Step by step solution

01

Determine the gamma distribution parameters

In a gamma distribution, there are two parameters. These are the shape parameter (k) and the scale parameter (\(\theta\)). In the context of a component failure rate analysis, k is often related to the number of components and \(\theta\) to the failure rate of a single component. Given that the failure rate of one component is once every 5 hours (which implies a mean time to failure of 5 hours), for 2 components failure we have k = 2 and \(\theta = 5 hours\).
02

Calculate the mean time for failure of 2 components

The mean of a gamma distribution is given by the formula \(mean = k * \theta\). Hence, for 2 components failing, the mean time will be \(2 * 5 = 10 hours\).
03

Compute the probability that 12 hours will elapse before 2 components fail

This probability can be calculated using the cumulative density function (CDF) of the gamma distribution which is given by \(P(X \le x) = 1 - \sum_{i=0}^{k-1} e^{-x/\theta} \frac{(x/\theta)^i}{i!}\). For this problem, we need to calculate the probability that X, the time to failure of two components, is greater than 12 hours, or \(1 - P(X \le 12)\). Plugging our parameters into the formula gives: \(P(X > 12) = 1 - (1 - \sum_{i=0}^{1} e^{-12/5} \frac{(12/5)^i}{i!}) = 1 - (1 - e^{-12/5}(1 + 12/5)) = 0.263\).

Unlock Step-by-Step Solutions & Ace Your Exams!

  • Full Textbook Solutions

    Get detailed explanations and key concepts

  • Unlimited Al creation

    Al flashcards, explanations, exams and more...

  • Ads-free access

    To over 500 millions flashcards

  • Money-back guarantee

    We refund you if you fail your exam.

Over 30 million students worldwide already upgrade their learning with 91Ó°ÊÓ!

Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Mean Time to Failure
When talking about the reliability of components, particularly in the field of electrical engineering, the term mean time to failure (MTTF) is a critical measurement. MTTF represents the average time expected until the first failure of a piece of equipment or component. In the context of the gamma distribution, this can be calculated by multiplying the shape parameter, often denoted by the symbol k, which indicates the number of failures, by the scale parameter, symbolized by θ (theta), representing the average time between failures. For instance, if one electrical component has a failure rate of once every 5 hours, the MTTF for one component would simply be 5 hours. But if we want to determine the mean time for two components to fail, we take the failure rate and multiply it by 2, as shown in the exercise solution. This leads us to an MTTF of 10 hours for two components to fail.
Cumulative Density Function
The cumulative density function (CDF) is a fundamental concept in probability and statistics that describes the probability that a real-valued random variable X with a given probability distribution will be found at a value less than or equal to x. In the case of the gamma distribution, the CDF can help us understand the probability that the time until a certain number of events occurs does not exceed a specific value. For instance, with our example of component failures, it helps us calculate the probability that two failures will occur within 12 hours. Mathematically, the CDF is defined as P(X ≤ x), and for the gamma distribution, it is calculated using a formula involving the exponential function and factorials, which might seem complex but is very standardized in statistical analysis software and tools.
Probability Calculations
Probability calculations are key in understanding events under uncertainty. They involve quantifying the likelihood of outcomes and are used in various fields, from engineering to finance. These calculations form the bedrock for predicting behavior and making decisions based on statistical likelihood. For the gamma distribution probability assessment, calculations involve determining the chance that an event will occur within a stated period, as shown in our problem where the interest was in finding the likelihood that 12 hours pass before two failures happen. Using the CDF of the gamma distribution we can calculate not just the probability that an event happens within a certain time frame but also the probability of it not happening, and this dual capability makes it a highly versatile tool for engineers and analysts alike.
Failure Rate Analysis
Failure rate analysis is an integral part of predictive maintenance and reliability engineering. Analyzing the rate at which devices or components fail leads to better understanding and eventual improvement in their design and maintenance schedules. A common way to denote the failure rate is by using the Greek letter lambda (λ), which represents the failure rate per hour, or for whatever unit of time is relevant. In the context of the gamma distribution, the scale parameter θ can be seen as the reciprocal of the failure rate λ, (θ = 1/λ). For instance, if a component has a failure rate of once every 5 hours, θ would be 5, indicating the average operational time until a failure. Through failure rate analysis, companies can optimize resource allocation, improve operational efficiency, and extend the lifespan of their equipment.

One App. One Place for Learning.

All the tools & learning materials you need for study success - in one app.

Get started for free

Most popular questions from this chapter

A telemarketing company has a special letter opening machine that opens and removes the contents of an envelope. If the envelope is fed improperly into the machine, the contents of the envelope may not be removed or may be damaged. In this case we say that the machine has "failed." (a) If the machine has a probability of failure of 0.01 , what is the probability of more than 1 failure occurring in a batch of 20 envelopes? (b) If the probability of failure of the machine is 0.01 and a batch of 500 envelopes is to be opened, what is the probability that more than 8 failures will occur?

Given the normally distributed variable \(X\) with mean 18 and standard deviation \(2.5,\) find (a) \(P(X<15)\) (b) the value of \(k\) such that \(P(Xk)=0.1814 ;\) (d) \(\mathrm{P}(17

The life of a certain type of device has an advertised failure rate of 0.01 per hour. The failure rate is constant and the exponential distribution applies. (a) What is the mean time to failure? (b) What is the probability that 200 hours will pass before a failure is observed?

A drug manufacturer claims that a certain drug cures a blood disease, on the average, \(80 \%\) of the time. To check the claim, government testers used the drug on a sample of 100 individuals and decided to accept the claim if 75 or more were cured. (a) What is the probability that the claim will be rejected when the cure probability is, in fact, \(0.8 ?\) (b) What is the probability that the claim will be accepted by the government when the cure probability is as low as \(0.7 ?\)

In a certain city, the daily consumption of water (in millions of liters) follows approximately a gamma distribution with \(\mathrm{Q}=2\) and \(\beta=3\). If the daily capacity of that city is 9 million liters of water, what is the probability that on any given day the water supply is inadequate?

See all solutions

Recommended explanations on Math Textbooks

View all explanations

What do you think about this solution?

We value your feedback to improve our textbook solutions.

Study anywhere. Anytime. Across all devices.