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A marketing expert for a pasta-making company believes that \(40 \%\) of pasta lovers prefer lasagna. If 9 out of 20 pasta lovers choose lasagna over other pastas, what can be concluded about the expert's claim? Use a 0.05 level of significance.

Short Answer

Expert verified
Following the steps listed, calculate the z-score and compare it to the critical values. Based on this comparison, a conclusion can be made regarding the validity of the marketing expert's claim.

Step by step solution

01

Formulate the Hypotheses

Set up the null and alternative hypotheses. The null hypothesis (H0) : \(p = 0.40\) and the alternative hypothesis (H1): \(p \neq 0.40\) where \(p\) is the true proportion of pasta lovers who prefer lasagna.
02

Calculate the Test Statistic

The test statistic for a proportion is a z-score (z) given by the formula: \( z = \frac{(\hat{p} - p0)}{\sqrt{ \frac{(p0 * (1 - p0)}{n}}} \) where: -\(\hat{p}\) is the sample proportion -\(p0\) is the claimed proportion = 0.40 -\(n\) is the sample size = 20. Using the given data, calculate: \(\hat{p} = \frac{9}{20} = 0.45\) and substitute all the values into the formula to get the z-score.
03

Find the Critical Values

For a two-tailed test at the 0.05 level of significance, the critical values are \(\pm 1.96\). These values are found using a standard normal (Z) distribution table.
04

Make a Decision

Compare the test statistic (z-score) calculated in Step 2 with the critical values. If the calculated z-score falls within the interval of the critical values, we fail to reject the null hypothesis. This means we don't have sufficient evidence to conclude that the marketing expert's claim is incorrect. Otherwise, we reject the null hypothesis and conclude that the expert's claim is incorrect.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Null and Alternative Hypotheses
In the realm of hypothesis testing in statistics, formulating the null and alternative hypotheses is a crucial starting point. The null hypothesis, symbolized as H0, represents a statement of no effect or no difference, and it is what we assume to be true until evidence suggests otherwise. In the context of the pasta company's marketing expert, the null hypothesis is that the proportion of pasta lovers who prefer lasagna is 40%, or in statistical terms, H0: p = 0.40.

The alternative hypothesis, represented as H1 or Ha, is the statement we are trying to find evidence for; it is essentially what we conclude if we find the null hypothesis to be unlikely. In this scenario, the alternative hypothesis is that the proportion of pasta lovers who prefer lasagna is not 40%, denoted as H1: p ≠ 0.40. Determining these two hypotheses is pivotal for guiding the subsequent steps of your test – from selecting the appropriate test statistic to making a decision based on your statistical findings.
Test Statistic Calculation
The test statistic is a standardized value that allows us to make a decision about the hypotheses. It is calculated using sample data to determine the likelihood of the sample statistic if the null hypothesis were true. In the case of a proportion test, such as in this problem where we are examining pasta lovers' preferences, the test statistic is a z-score which measures the number of standard deviations the observed proportion ( p̂ ) is away from the claimed proportion (p0).

To calculate this, use the formula:
\[ z = \frac{(\hat{p} - p0)}{\sqrt{ \frac{(p0 * (1 - p0))}{n}}} \]
This formula accounts for the variability expected in sample estimates and allows comparing the result to a standard normal distribution. It's essential to substitute the correct numbers into the formula and be meticulous with your calculations, as accuracy here directly affects your final conclusion.
Critical Values
Critical values are cut-off points that help determine when to reject the null hypothesis. They depend on the significance level you decide on before conducting your hypothesis test – usually a 5% significance level, denoted as 0.05, is chosen in practice. These critical values define the bounds of the acceptance region for the null hypothesis. If your test statistic falls outside this region, the null hypothesis is considered unlikely enough to be rejected.

For a two-tailed test with a significance level of 0.05, the critical values are ±1.96. These numerical thresholds correspond to the points on a standard normal distribution where the areas in the extreme tails (both left and right) are 0.025 each, totaling up to 5% of the distribution. Finding the critical values is often done by referencing a Z-table, but many statistical tools can also compute them for you. It's a critical stage that sets the stage for your ultimate decision-making.
Proportion Test
A proportion test is specifically used when we want to make inferences about a population proportion based on sample data. It's an ideal way to tackle the kind of question posed by the marketing expert at the pasta company. By comparing the observed proportion from the sample ( p̂ = 9/20 = 0.45) to a claimed proportion (p0 = 0.40), we test the likelihood that any deviation is due to random sample variation rather than a true difference in preferences.

The sample data provides us with an estimated proportion, and through hypothesis testing, we determine whether this estimate is significantly different from the claimed proportion or just within the bounds of sampling error. The proportion test is integral for making data-informed decisions in business, healthcare, public policy, and many other fields. It allows statisticians and non-statisticians alike to assess claims and make predictions with a measurable level of confidence.

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