/*! This file is auto-generated */ .wp-block-button__link{color:#fff;background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;text-decoration:none;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);font-size:1.125em}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff;text-decoration:none} Problem 16 The charge-to-tap time (min) for... [FREE SOLUTION] | 91Ó°ÊÓ

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The charge-to-tap time (min) for a carbon steel in one type of open hearth furnace was determined for each heat in a sample of size 46 , resulting in a sample mean time of \(382.1\) and a sample standard deviation of \(31.5\). Calculate a \(95 \%\) upper confidence bound for true average charge-to-tap time.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The 95% upper confidence bound is approximately 389.89 minutes.

Step by step solution

01

Identify Given Information

First, we need to identify the given values from the problem. The sample size is \( n = 46 \), the sample mean is \( \bar{x} = 382.1 \), and the sample standard deviation is \( s = 31.5 \). We are asked to calculate a \(95\%\) upper confidence bound for the true mean.
02

Determine the Appropriate Distribution

Since the sample size is large \( (n > 30) \), we use the t-distribution to estimate the confidence interval for the mean. The degrees of freedom \( (df) \) is \( n - 1 = 46 - 1 = 45 \).
03

Find the t-Value for 95% Confidence Level

To find the t-value, we need to look up the t-table or use a calculator for the 95% confidence level with \( df = 45 \). At 95% confidence for an upper bound, we find the t-value for the 95% percentile. Let's say it's approximately \( t_{0.05, 45} \approx 1.679 \).
04

Calculate the Margin of Error

The margin of error for the upper bound is given by the formula \( E = t \cdot \frac{s}{\sqrt{n}} \). Substituting the values, \( E = 1.679 \cdot \frac{31.5}{\sqrt{46}} \). Calculate this expression to find \( E \).
05

Compute the Upper Confidence Bound

The upper confidence bound is calculated as \( \bar{x} + E \). Use the sample mean and the margin of error from the previous step to find this value.
06

Perform the Calculation

Calculate \( E = 1.679 \cdot \frac{31.5}{\sqrt{46}} \approx 7.79 \). Then, compute the upper confidence bound: \( 382.1 + 7.79 = 389.89 \). Thus, the \(95\%\) upper confidence bound for the true mean is approximately \(389.89\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

T-Distribution
The T-Distribution, also known as Student's t-distribution, is a probability distribution that is commonly used when the sample size is small, and the population standard deviation is unknown. In this exercise, since our sample size is 46, it might seem relatively large, yet we still use the t-distribution because the population standard deviation is not provided. This distribution is similar to the normal distribution but has heavier tails, allowing for uncertainty in the estimate of the standard deviation.
The t-distribution is crucial for constructing confidence intervals for the mean. As the sample size increases, the t-distribution gets closer to the normal distribution. However, it remains essential when dealing with smaller samples. When using the t-distribution, always remember to determine the degrees of freedom, which is a concept we will discuss next.
When working with t-distribution tables or tools, ensure you're referencing the correct confidence level and degrees of freedom to obtain the right t-value needed for calculations.
Sample Mean
The Sample Mean is a fundamental concept in statistics. It represents the average value of a sample taken from the population and is denoted by \( \bar{x} \). In our exercise, the sample mean is provided as 382.1. This sample mean serves as an estimate of the true population mean.
To calculate the sample mean, you add up all the sample observations and divide by the number of observations. It is expressed as \( \bar{x} = \frac{\sum x_i}{n} \), where \( \sum x_i \) is the sum of all sample values and \( n \) is the sample size.
The sample mean is a crucial input when calculating confidence intervals, as it forms the basis for these estimates. It provides a central point around which we're trying to understand variation, like how far off our sample mean might be from the true population mean.
Degrees of Freedom
Degrees of Freedom (df) is a critical concept in statistical calculations such as determining the appropriate t-value for the t-distribution. It essentially represents the number of independent values that can vary in an analysis without breaking any constraints. For instance, when calculating a variance estimate, one degree of freedom is used up by having calculated the mean beforehand.
In the context of this exercise, the degrees of freedom is the sample size minus one (\( df = n - 1 \)). With our sample size of 46, we have 45 degrees of freedom. This value is essential in determining the correct t-value when constructing a confidence interval.
The reason for subtracting one lies in estimating statistical parameters from data; one fewer piece of information is needed for something like a sample mean, which was already used to account for that constraint.
Margin of Error
Margin of Error is a measure of the range within which we expect the true population parameter to lie, based on our sample data. In confidence interval calculations, it accounts for the uncertainty inherent in using a sample rather than a full population.
  • For this particular confidence interval, the margin of error is calculated using the t-value, the sample standard deviation, and the sample size. The formula is given by \( E = t \cdot \frac{s}{\sqrt{n}} \), where \( t \) is the t-value associated with the desired confidence level, \( s \) is the sample standard deviation, and \( \sqrt{n} \) is the square root of the sample size.
  • In our context, after substituting the values into the formula, the margin of error comes out to be approximately 7.79.
The margin of error helps us determine the upper and lower bounds of the confidence interval. It quantifies the uncertainty about the sample mean as an estimate of the true population mean, accounting for sample variability.

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