/*! This file is auto-generated */ .wp-block-button__link{color:#fff;background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;text-decoration:none;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);font-size:1.125em}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff;text-decoration:none} Problem 12 A random sample of 110 lightning... [FREE SOLUTION] | 91Ó°ÊÓ

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A random sample of 110 lightning flashes in a certain region resulted in a sample average radar echo duration of \(.81 \mathrm{sec}\) and a sample standard deviation of \(.34 \mathrm{sec}\) ("Lightning Strikes to an Airplane in a Thunderstorm," \(J\). of Aircraft, 1984: 607-611). Calculate a \(99 \%\) (two- sided) confidence interval for the true average echo duration \(\mu\), and interpret the resulting interval.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The 99% confidence interval for \( \mu \) is (0.7265, 0.8935).

Step by step solution

01

Identify the Given Information

We are given a sample mean \( \bar{x} = 0.81 \) sec, a sample standard deviation \( s = 0.34 \) sec, and a sample size \( n = 110 \). We need to calculate a 99% confidence interval for the population mean \( \mu \).
02

Determine the Critical Value

Given that the sample size is large \( (n = 110) \), we use the standard normal distribution (Z-distribution) to find the critical value for a 99% confidence interval. From the standard normal table, the critical value \( z^* \) for a 99% confidence interval is approximately 2.576.
03

Calculate the Standard Error

The standard error (SE) of the sample mean is calculated using the formula \( \text{SE} = \frac{s}{\sqrt{n}} \). Substituting the values, we get \( \text{SE} = \frac{0.34}{\sqrt{110}} \approx 0.0324 \).
04

Compute the Margin of Error

The margin of error (ME) is found by multiplying the critical value \( z^* \) by the standard error. \( \text{ME} = z^* \cdot \text{SE} = 2.576 \times 0.0324 \approx 0.0835 \).
05

Find the Confidence Interval

Subtract and add the margin of error from the sample mean to find the confidence interval: \( \bar{x} - \text{ME} \) to \( \bar{x} + \text{ME} \). Thus, the 99% confidence interval is \( 0.81 - 0.0835 \) to \( 0.81 + 0.0835 \), which calculates to \( (0.7265, 0.8935) \).
06

Interpret the Confidence Interval

We are 99% confident that the true average radar echo duration \( \mu \) lies between 0.7265 seconds and 0.8935 seconds. This means that, in repeated samples, 99% of the calculated intervals would contain the true average duration.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Critical Value
When calculating a confidence interval, the critical value plays a crucial role. It determines how far the interval will stretch around the sample mean. The critical value corresponds to the desired confidence level. This is typically found in standard statistical tables. In cases of large samples (like our sample of size 110), using a Z-distribution to determine this value is appropriate.

For a 99% confidence interval, we use the critical value of approximately 2.576. This value signifies the number of standard errors we stretch from the sample mean in each direction to form the interval. Higher confidence levels lead to larger critical values, making the interval wider.

If you imagine a bell-shaped curve that represents the distribution of sample means, the area under the curve between the critical values encompasses the desired proportion of all possible sample means at the specified confidence level.
Standard Error
The standard error (SE) captures the variability of the sample mean compared to the population mean. It is pivotal to determining the width of a confidence interval. Essentially, the standard error adjusts the sample standard deviation by the size of the sample, giving a measure of precision for the sample mean.

In mathematical terms, the SE is calculated as follows:
  • SE = \( \frac{s}{\sqrt{n}} \)
where \( s \) is the sample standard deviation and \( n \) is the sample size.

For our sample, where the size was 110, the standard error was found to be 0.0324. This calculation provides insight into how much the sample mean is expected to fluctuate from one sample to another. A smaller standard error indicates more precise estimates of the population mean, which in turn makes the confidence interval narrower.
Margin of Error
The margin of error represents how much we expect our sample mean to deviate from the true population mean. It is directly influenced by both the standard error and the critical value. Putting it simply, the margin of error helps to determine the reach of the confidence interval from the sample mean.

The margin of error is computed by multiplying the critical value with the standard error:
  • ME = \( z^* \times \text{SE} \)
For our example, using a critical value of 2.576 and a standard error of 0.0324, the margin of error calculates to approximately 0.0835.

This number tells us how far above and below the sample mean we extend when constructing the confidence interval. In essence, it broadens the interval either way to encompass the true population mean within a certain level of confidence.
Sample Mean
The sample mean is a foundational concept in statistics, serving as an unbiased estimator of the population mean. It provides a central value around which we construct our confidence interval. This method utilizes every data point within the sample, making it a flexible and powerful measure.

In our exercise, the sample mean (\( \bar{x} \)) was calculated as 0.81 seconds, representing the average radar echo duration in the sample. From this mean, we expand both sides using the margin of error to create our confidence interval. This average is the best single point estimate of the population mean, assuming random sampling.

By forming a confidence interval around this sample mean, we can assert, with a specified level of confidence, that the true population mean lies within this range. The sample mean is crucial since it's the starting point for deriving meaningful insights about the larger population.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Exercise 72 of Chapter l gave the following observations on a receptor binding measure (adjusted distribution volume) for a sample of 13 healthy individuals: \(23,39,40,41,43\), \(47,51,58,63,66,67,69,72 .\) a. Is it plausible that the population distribution from which this sample was selected is normal? b. Calculate an interval for which you can be \(95 \%\) confident that at least \(95 \%\) of all healthy individuals in the population have adjusted distribution volumes lying between the limits of the interval. c. Predict the adjusted distribution volume of a single healthy individual by calculating a \(95 \%\) prediction interval. How does this interval's width compare to the width of the interval calculated in part (b)?

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