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The article "Modeling Sediment and Water Column Interactions for Hydrophobic Pollutants" (Water Research, 1984: 1169-1174) suggests the uniform distribution on the interval \((7.5,20)\) as a model for depth \((\mathrm{cm})\) of the bioturbation layer in sediment in a certain region. a. What are the mean and variance of depth? b. What is the cdf of depth? c. What is the probability that observed depth is at most 10 ? Between 10 and 15 ? d. What is the probability that the observed depth is within 1 standard deviation of the mean value? Within 2 standard deviations?

Short Answer

Expert verified
Mean is 13.75; variance is 13.02. Probability at most 10 is 0.2; between 10 and 15 is 0.4.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Uniform Distribution

The uniform distribution is a continuous probability distribution where all intervals of the same length within the distribution's range are equally probable. We have a uniform distribution on the interval \((a, b) = (7.5, 20)\). This means any value between 7.5 and 20 is equally likely.
02

Calculate the Mean and Variance

The mean \(\mu\) of a uniform distribution over an interval \((a, b)\) is given by the formula:\[\mu = \frac{a + b}{2}\]Substituting the values, we have:\[\mu = \frac{7.5 + 20}{2} = 13.75\]The variance \(\sigma^2\) is given by:\[\sigma^2 = \frac{(b-a)^2}{12}\]Substituting in, we find:\[\sigma^2 = \frac{(20 - 7.5)^2}{12} = \frac{12.5^2}{12} = 13.0208333\]
03

Determine the CDF of Depth

The cumulative distribution function (CDF) \(F(x)\) of a uniform distribution \(U(a, b)\) is defined as:\[F(x) = \begin{cases} 0 & \text{for } x < 7.5 \\frac{x - 7.5}{20 - 7.5} & \text{for } 7.5 \leq x \leq 20 \1 & \text{for } x > 20\end{cases}\]
04

Calculate Probabilities for Given Depths

For \(P(X \leq 10)\), we use the CDF:\[P(X \leq 10) = \frac{10 - 7.5}{20 - 7.5} = \frac{2.5}{12.5} = 0.2\]For \(P(10 < X < 15)\), calculate probabilities using the CDF:\[P(10 < X < 15) = F(15) - F(10) = \frac{15 - 7.5}{12.5} - \frac{10 - 7.5}{12.5} = 0.6 - 0.2 = 0.4\]
05

Calculate Probabilities within Standard Deviations

The standard deviation \(\sigma\) is the square root of the variance:\[\sigma = \sqrt{13.0208333} \approx 3.61\]Within 1 standard deviation of the mean:\[\mu - \sigma = 13.75 - 3.61 = 10.14, \quad \mu + \sigma = 13.75 + 3.61 = 17.36\]Probability is:\[P(10.14 < X < 17.36) = F(17.36) - F(10.14) = \frac{17.36 - 7.5}{12.5} - \frac{10.14 - 7.5}{12.5} \approx 0.7872 - 0.2112 = 0.576\]Within 2 standard deviations:\[\mu - 2\sigma = 13.75 - 7.22 = 6.53, \quad \mu + 2\sigma = 13.75 + 7.22 = 20.97\]Since 6.53 < 7.5 and 20.97 > 20, the entire range is covered:Probability is:\[P(7.5 < X < 20) = 1\]
06

Summarize the Results

The mean depth is 13.75, with a variance of 13.02. The probability that depth is at most 10 is 0.2, and between 10 and 15 is 0.4. Finally, the probability of being within 1 standard deviation of the mean is approximately 0.576 and within 2 standard deviations is 1.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Mean and Variance Calculation
To understand the mean and variance of a uniform distribution, it's essential to grasp that this type of distribution is about equal probabilities. In our exercise, the uniform distribution is between 7.5 and 20 cm for a specific environmental observation.

The mean is the average value you would get if you collected a large number of data points from this distribution. With a formula, calculating the mean \( \mu \) of a uniform distribution across interval \((a, b)\) is straightforward:
  • Mean \( \mu = \frac{a + b}{2} \)
For our example, substituting the given values:
  • \( \mu = \frac{7.5 + 20}{2} = 13.75\)
Hence, the mean depth is 13.75 cm.

Variance measures how spread out the values of the distribution are. For a uniform distribution, you can compute the variance \( \sigma^2 \) with this formula:
  • Variance \( \sigma^2 = \frac{(b-a)^2}{12} \)
Plugging numbers into the equation for our interval:
  • \( \sigma^2 = \frac{(20 - 7.5)^2}{12} = 13.0208333\)
So, the variance of the depth is approximately 13.02. This means there is a moderate spread of data around the mean.
Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF)
The Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) is a key tool in understanding probabilities within a specific range of a uniform distribution. It helps determine the probability that a random variable is less than or equal to a certain value.

For a uniform distribution over the interval \((a, b)\), the CDF \( F(x) \) is defined as follows:
  • If \( x < a \), \( F(x) = 0 \)
  • If \( a \leq x \leq b \), \( F(x) = \frac{x - a}{b - a} \)
  • If \( x > b \), \( F(x) = 1 \)
In the context of the exercise:
  • For \( x < 7.5 \), the probability is 0 because it's outside the range.
  • For \( 7.5 \leq x \leq 20 \), \( F(x) = \frac{x - 7.5}{12.5} \)
  • For \( x > 20 \), the entire probability is captured, so \( F(x) = 1 \)
CDF provides a complete view of how values accumulate across the distribution, reflecting how likely a depth is to fall within certain values.
Standard Deviation and Probability
The standard deviation in any distribution tells us about the average distance of data points from the mean. In a uniform distribution, it remains a useful measure to understand the spread.

The standard deviation \( \sigma \) is the square root of the variance. Calculating this gives us:
  • \( \sigma = \sqrt{13.0208333} \approx 3.61 \)
With this, we can find out how many depths are likely within certain distances from the mean. For one standard deviation (\( \, \mu - \sigma \, \) to \( \, \mu + \sigma \,\)), calculate:
  • \( 13.75 - 3.61 = 10.14 \)
  • \( 13.75 + 3.61 = 17.36 \)
This range covers a probability of about 0.576 or 57.6%.

For two standard deviations, going further:
  • \( 13.75 - 2 \times 3.61 = 6.53 \)
  • \( 13.75 + 2 \times 3.61 = 20.97 \)
Since these bounds spill beyond the interval limits (7.5 to 20), this range covers the entire valid range of data, giving a probability of 1 or 100%.

Knowing these probabilities helps infer how typical or unusual certain depth measurements might be when compared to the expected average.

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