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A family decides to have children until it has three children of the same gender. Assuming \(P(B)=P(G)=.5\), what is the pmf of \(X=\) the number of children in the family?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The pmf of \(X\) is defined by considering the sequences ending with BBB or GGG, accounting for the sequence length's probability.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Problem

We need to find the probability mass function (pmf) of a random variable \(X\) that represents the number of children a family has until they get three children of the same gender, either all boys (B) or all girls (G), with equal probability of having a boy or a girl.
02

Define Outcomes

There are two possible outcomes for each child: Boy (B) or Girl (G). We are interested in the sequences that end with exactly three boys or three girls. The simplest sequence is three consecutive B's or G's: BBB or GGG.
03

Account for All Cases

Consider various cases where three consecutive boys or girls occur at the end of the sequence. For a family to have three boys (e.g., BBGGBBB), a valid sequence must have the last three children as either BBB or GGG.
04

Compute Probabilities for Small n

For small values of n (number of children), enumerate the number of sequences that result in either BBB or GGG being the last three, starting with 3 children (only BBB or GGG) up to higher counts (e.g., BBGBBB for 6 children). Calculate each probability using \(P(B)=P(G)=0.5\).
05

Develop the PMF

Use pattern recognition for probabilities calculated to develop a generalized pmf for any number of children \(n\) required until the sequence ends with three consecutive children of the same gender. This often requires combinatorial considerations and geometric series of increasing sequence lengths.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Random Variable
In probability and statistics, a random variable is a fundamental concept used to quantify uncertain outcomes. In our exercise, the random variable, denoted as \( X \), represents the number of children a family has until three of them are of the same gender. This variable can take various discrete values, which depend on the sequences of genders that occur.

Random variables are often classified into discrete and continuous types, with \( X \) being a discrete random variable because it counts a finite number of outcomes - the number of children. Each potential outcome has a corresponding probability, with all probabilities adding up to 1.

Understanding a random variable includes grasping its probability mass function (PMF), which, for \( X \), gives the probabilities associated with each possible value \( n \). In this scenario, the probability function helps answer how likely it is for a family to have a specific number of children before achieving three of the same gender in a row.
Combinatorics
Combinatorics is an area of mathematics dealing with counting, arranging, and combining objects. It plays a pivotal role in problems involving probability, as seen in our exercise regarding the number of children a family has. Let's dive into how we use combinatorics to determine the sequences of boys and girls.

To solve our problem, we need to account for all possible ways the sequence of children's gender could occur before reaching three consecutive boys or girls. This involves recognizing valid patterns - sequences like BBB or GGG not only end the sequence but form its basis. Combinatorics helps calculate all potential valid configurations of boys and girls before reaching this pattern.

Here, we consider every different sequence length \( n \) and analyze how many such sequences end exactly with three consecutive same-gender children. This step requires careful counting and organizing of potential sequences, often incorporating permutation and combination methodologies to solve complex arrangements.
Geometric Series
A geometric series is a series of numbers with a constant ratio between successive terms. In probability, these often show up as part of modeling scenarios like repeated trials until a certain condition is met, similar to the condition in our problem.

For the exercise, once we've identified the pattern in our probabilities across different sequence lengths, a geometric series can describe how these probabilities accumulate. Consider, for instance, that each scenario where kids are born follows a geometric probability pattern due to each child either being a boy or a girl with a probability of 0.5.

Here, a geometric series might represent the cumulative probability where a sequence ends in three boys or girls. This involves translating each possible \( n \) into a term within the series using the structure of geometric progression to sum probabilities over all potential numbers of children. Such methods not only help to encapsulate exponential growth-like properties of successive events but also serve as a powerful tool in deriving a succinct PMF for \( X \), efficiently summarizing the probability distribution.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Consider a collection \(A_{1}, \ldots, A_{k}\) of mutually exclusive and exhaustive events, and a random variable \(X\) whose distribution depends on which of the \(A_{i}\) 's occurs (e.g., a commuter might select one of three possible routes from home to work, with \(X\) representing the commute time). Let \(E\left(X \mid A_{i}\right)\) denote the expected value of \(X\) given that the event \(A_{i}\) occurs. Then it can be shown that \(E(X)=\) \(\Sigma E\left(X \mid A_{i}\right) \cdot P\left(A_{i}\right)\), the weighted average of the individual "conditional expectations" where the weights are the probabilities of the partitioning events. a. The expected duration of a voice call to a particular telephone number is 3 minutes, whereas the expected duration of a data call to that same number is 1 minute. If \(75 \%\) of all calls are voice calls, what is the expected duration of the next call? b. A deli sells three different types of chocolate chip cookies. The number of chocolate chips in a type \(i\) cookie has a Poisson distribution with parameter \(\lambda_{i}=i+1\) \((i=1,2,3)\). If \(20 \%\) of all customers purchasing a chocolate chip cookie select the first type, \(50 \%\) choose the second type, and the remaining \(30 \%\) opt for the third type, what is the expected number of chips in a cookie purchased by the next customer?

Suppose that trees are distributed in a forest according to a two-dimensional Poisson process with parameter \(\alpha\), the expected number of trees per acre, equal to 80 . a. What is the probability that in a certain quarter-acre plot, there will be at most 16 trees? b. If the forest covers 85,000 acres, what is the expected number of trees in the forest? c. Suppose you select a point in the forest and construct a circle of radius \(.1\) mile. Let \(X=\) the number of trees within that circular region. What is the pmf of \(X\) ? [Hint: 1 sq mile \(=640\) acres. \(]\)

A reservation service employs five information operators who receive requests for information independently of one another, each according to a Poisson process with rate \(\alpha=2\) per minute. a. What is the probability that during a given 1-min period, the first operator receives no requests? b. What is the probability that during a given 1-min period, exactly four of the five operators receive no requests? c. Write an expression for the probability that during a given 1-min period, all of the operators receive exactly the same number of requests.

Suppose that the number of drivers who travel between a particular origin and destination during a designated time period has a Poisson distribution with parameter \(\lambda=20\) (suggested in the article "Dynamic Ride Sharing: Theory and Practice," J. of Transp. Engr., 1997: 308-312). What is the probability that the number of drivers will a. Be at most 10 ? b. Exceed 20 ? c. Be between 10 and 20 , inclusive? Be strictly between 10 and 20 ? d. Be within 2 standard deviations of the mean value?

If \(a \leq X \leq b\), show that \(a \leq E(X) \leq b\).

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