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A particular type of tennis racket comes in a midsize version and an oversize version. Sixty percent of all customers at a certain store want the oversize version. a. Among ten randomly selected customers who want this type of racket, what is the probability that at least six want the oversize version? b. Among ten randomly selected customers, what is the probability that the number who want the oversize version is within 1 standard deviation of the mean value? c. The store currently has seven rackets of each version. What is the probability that all of the next ten customers who want this racket can get the version they want from current stock?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a) Use cumulative probability for \( X \geq 6 \). b) Check probability for \(4 \leq X \leq 8\). c) Consider \( X \leq 7 \) for both versions in stock.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Problem

We are given a situation where 60% of customers want the oversize version of a tennis racket. We will use a binomial distribution to solve the questions because each customer independently chooses between the midsize or oversize version.
02

Define the Binomial Distribution

Define the random variable \( X \) as the number of customers out of 10 who want the oversize version. The success probability \( p \) is 0.6, and \( n = 10 \). Thus, \( X \sim \text{Binomial}(10, 0.6) \).
03

Calculate the Probability for Part (a)

We need \( P(X \geq 6) \). This can be calculated using the complementary probability: \( P(X \geq 6) = 1 - P(X \leq 5) \). Calculate \( P(X \leq 5) \) by adding the probabilities \( P(X = 0) \) to \( P(X = 5) \).
04

Use Binomial Probability Formula

For a binomial distribution, \( P(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k} \). Use this formula to find individual probabilities for \( X = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 \) and sum them up to find \( P(X \leq 5) \).
05

Calculate Mean and Standard Deviation for Part (b)

The mean of a binomial distribution is \( \mu = np = 10 \times 0.6 = 6 \). The standard deviation is \( \sigma = \sqrt{np(1-p)} = \sqrt{10 \times 0.6 \times 0.4} = \sqrt{2.4} \approx 1.55 \).
06

Determine Range for Part (b)

We need the probability that the number is within 1 standard deviation of the mean. The range is \( \mu - \sigma \leq X \leq \mu + \sigma \) or \( 6 - 1.55 \leq X \leq 6 + 1.55 \). Therefore, we consider \( X = 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 \).
07

Calculate Probability for Part (b)

Find \( P(4 \leq X \leq 8) \) by computing \( P(X = 4), P(X = 5), ..., P(X = 8) \) using the binomial formula and adding them together.
08

Prepare for Part (c)

We need the probability that both versions have enough stock. The maximum can be \( X = 7 \). We need \( 0 \leq X \leq 7 \).
09

Calculate Probability for Part (c)

Find \( P(X \leq 7) \) and subtract \( P(X \geq 8) \). Use complementary probability: \( P(\text{all customers get their version}) = 1 - P(X \geq 8)\). Calculate as needed using previous methods.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Binomial Probability
Binomial probability is a statistical method to determine the likelihood of a specific number of successes in a set of independent trials, such as our tennis racket example. Each customer chooses independently, with a consistent success probability of buying the oversize version. In this context, success is defined as a customer wanting the oversize racket, so a success probability, denoted by \( p \), is 0.6. The trials are repeated as each new customer enters the store, and we assume independence between their choices.

To calculate probabilities, the binomial distribution model is used. The model fits scenarios with a fixed number of trials, only two outcomes per trial (success or failure), a constant probability of success per trial, and independence between trials. This makes it a handy tool for problems similar to our exercise scenario, where we are interested in finding the probability of a specific number of successes out of a possible set of trials.
Random Variable
A random variable is a representation of numeric outcomes from a statistical experiment. In this exercise, the random variable \( X \) denotes the number of customers who prefer the oversize version of the racket among a total of ten selected ones.

The variable \( X \) is said to be binomially distributed with parameters \( n \) and \( p \), specifically \( X \sim \text{Binomial}(n=10, p=0.6) \). This mathematical notation succinctly describes the distribution where \( n \) is the number of trials, and \( p \) is the success probability. This makes it possible to calculate the probabilities for different outcomes of \( X \) effectively.

Understanding the meaning behind \( X \) is fundamental in binomial problems as it defines how the total results of the individual trials are aggregated and analyzed.
Standard Deviation
The standard deviation is a measure of the amount of variation or dispersion in a set of values. For a binomial distribution, the standard deviation can be determined using the formula \( \sigma = \sqrt{np(1-p)} \). In our exercise problem, \( n = 10 \) and \( p = 0.6 \), so without further ado, we calculate the binomial standard deviation as \( \sigma = \sqrt{10 \times 0.6 \times 0.4} = \sqrt{2.4} \approx 1.55 \).

This value of standard deviation helps us in understanding the distribution of customer preferences. For instance, if we want to find out how many customers' preferences would typically fall within one standard deviation of the mean, we calculate the mean and adjust for one standard deviation above and below to get our range.

Standard deviation is critical as it offers insight into how much our data is spread out, or scattered, from the average preference.
Probability Calculation
In the context of binomial probability, calculating the exact probability of an event involves several steps. Each requires an understanding of combinatorics and probability distribution. For the part where we calculate the probability that at least 6 out of 10 customers want the oversize version, we utilize the binomial probability formula: \( P(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k} \).

In our calculations:
  • \( \binom{n}{k} \) is the combination of \( n \) trials taken \( k \) at a time.
  • \( p^k \) signifies the probability of \( k \) successes.
  • \( (1-p)^{n-k} \) accounts for the probability of \( n-k \) failures.
To simplify complex problems, we often use the concept of complementary probability. For example, to find the probability of at least 6 succeeding, it's easier to calculate the probability of up to 5 successes and subtract from 1: \( P(X \geq 6) = 1 - P(X \leq 5) \).

Such probability calculations allow us to interpret various scenarios with a binomial distribution, essentially providing predicted outcomes concerning the choices by the customer batch.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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