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A sample of \(n=500(x, y)\) pairs was collected and a test of \(H_{0}: \rho=0\) versus \(H_{\mathrm{a}}: \rho \neq 0\) was carried out. The resulting \(P\)-value was computed to be \(.00032\). a. What conclusion would be appropriate at level of significance .001? b. Does this small \(P\)-value indicate that there is a very strong linear relationship between \(x\) and \(y\) (a value of \(\rho\) that differs considerably from 0)? Explain. c. Now suppose a sample of \(n=10,000(x, y)\) pairs resulted in \(r=.022\). Test \(H_{0}: \rho=0\) versus \(H_{\mathrm{a}}: \rho \neq 0\) at level \(.05\). Is the result statistically significant? Comment on the practical significance of your analysis.

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. Reject \(H_0\); significant at \(\alpha=0.001\). b. Small \(P\)-value indicates a detected relationship, but not its strength. c. Statistically significant, but weak relationship practically.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding Significance Level

The level of significance is \(\alpha = 0.001\). This is the threshold for deciding whether to reject the null hypothesis (no linear relationship, \(\rho = 0\)) in favor of the alternative hypothesis (there is a linear relationship, \(\rho eq 0\)).
02

Comparing P-Value for Decision

Given \(P\)-value is \(0.00032\). Since \(0.00032 < 0.001\), we reject \(H_0\). At a significance level of 0.001, the data provides sufficient evidence to conclude that there is a linear relationship.
03

Interpreting Small P-Value

A small \(P\)-value indicates that if the null hypothesis were true, we would be very unlikely to observe such data. However, it does not necessarily indicate the strength of the relationship. The direction and magnitude of the correlation coefficient \(r\) need to be considered for strength assessment.
04

Testing with a Larger Sample

With \(n = 10,000\) and \(r = 0.022\), we will calculate the test statistic \(t = r\sqrt{n-2}/\sqrt{1-r^2}\). Here it becomes \(t = 0.022\sqrt{9998}/\sqrt{1-(0.022)^2} \approx 2.2\). This is compared against a critical value from \(t_{0.05,9998}\), which is approximately 1.96.
05

Determining Statistical Significance

Since \(t = 2.2 > 1.96\), the result is statistically significant, meaning \(H_0\) is rejected at the 0.05 significance level, indicating a linear relationship exists.
06

Considering Practical Significance

Though the result is statistically significant with \(n = 10,000\), the practical significance is questionable because \(r = 0.022\) indicates a very weak linear relationship that may not be useful for prediction or understanding the context.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

P-Value Analysis
The P-value is a vital concept in hypothesis testing. It helps us understand the likelihood of observing our data, assuming the null hypothesis to be true. In this exercise, a P-value of 0.00032 was determined. The P-value essentially tells us the probability that the relationship observed in the sample could arise purely due to chance. - If this P-value is less than the chosen level of significance (often denoted as \( \alpha \)), we have enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis. - In this case, a P-value of 0.00032 is indeed less than the significance level of 0.001, leading us to reject the null hypothesis, \( H_0 \). This means the data strongly suggests there is, in fact, a linear relationship between \( x \) and \( y \). It is crucial to remember, however, that while a small P-value indicates statistical evidence against the null hypothesis, it does not communicate how strong the relationship is.
Statistical Significance
Statistical significance is a term used to determine if the results observed in data can be considered as evidence to support or reject a hypothesis. In hypothesis testing, we usually compare the calculated test statistic or P-value with our pre-determined significance level, \( \alpha \). - When we claim that a result is statistically significant at a certain level, like 0.001 or 0.05, it means that the probability of observing the data, or something more extreme, under the null hypothesis is less than this \( \alpha \). - For instance, the initial test with \( n = 500 \) had a P-value of 0.00032, indicating a significant result at the 0.001 level. Meanwhile, for the larger sample test where \( n = 10,000 \), we calculated a test statistic of 2.2, which was compared against the critical value of approximately 1.96, thus again indicating a statistically significant result at \( \alpha = 0.05 \).This significance implies a linear relationship, yet it is essential to consider the practical significance and correlation strength of such results.
Correlation Coefficient Interpretation
Understanding the correlation coefficient, \( r \), is essential in assessing the strength and direction of a linear relationship between two variables. The value of \( r \) can range from -1 to 1, where:- A value of 1 indicates a perfect positive linear relationship.- A value of -1 indicates a perfect negative linear relationship.- A value of 0 suggests no linear relationship.In this exercise, for the larger sample size (\( n = 10,000 \)), the correlation coefficient \( r = 0.022 \) was obtained. This value, despite being statistically significant as seen above, indicates an extremely weak linear relationship between \( x \) and \( y \).The importance of interpretation lies in whether such a weak relationship has any practical implications. Here, it suggests that although the correlation exists statistically, it is too negligible for meaningful predictions or conclusions in practical applications.
Large Sample Analysis
Analyzing large samples can often lead to statistically significant results, even if the relationship is weak. In larger samples like \( n = 10,000 \), even small correlation coefficients can result in significant findings due to the sheer volume of data points.- A large sample size increases the power of a statistical test, making it easier to detect smaller effects.- However, while statistically significant results might appear more frequently, it's equally vital to consider the practical significance, especially when the correlation coefficient itself is minimal.In this study, despite the statistical significance with a correlation of \( r = 0.022 \), the practical implication remains questionable given the weakness of the relationship. Hence, large sample analysis encourages balancing between the statistical detection of effects and the magnitude of such effects, ensuring true utility in real-world scenarios.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Suppose that in a certain chemical process the reaction time \(y\) (hr) is related to the temperature \(\left({ }^{\circ} \mathrm{F}\right)\) in the chamber in which the reaction takes place according to the simple linear regression model with equation \(y=5.00-.01 x\) and \(\sigma=.075\). a. What is the expected change in reaction time for a \(1^{\circ} \mathrm{F}\) increase in temperature? For a \(10^{\circ} \mathrm{F}\) increase in temperature? b. What is the expected reaction time when temperature is \(200^{\circ} \mathrm{F}\) ? When temperature is \(250^{\circ} \mathrm{F}\) ? c. Suppose five observations are made independently on reaction time, each one for a temperature of \(250^{\circ} \mathrm{F}\). What is the probability that all five times are between \(2.4\) and \(2.6 \mathrm{hr}\) ? d. What is the probability that two independently observed reaction times for temperatures \(1^{\circ}\) apart are such that the time at the higher temperature exceeds the time at the lower temperature?

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