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A regression of \(y=\) calcium content \((\mathrm{g} / \mathrm{L})\) on \(x=\) dissolved material \(\left(\mathrm{mg} / \mathrm{cm}^{2}\right)\) was reported in the article "Use of Fly Ash or Silica Fume to Increase the Resistance of Concrete to Feed Acids" (Magazine of Concrete Research, 1997: 337-344). The equation of the estimated regression line was \(y=\) \(3.678+.144 x\), with \(r^{2}=.860\), based on \(n=23\). a. Interpret the estimated slope .144 and the coefficient of determination \(.860\). b. Calculate a point estimate of the true average calcium content when the amount of dissolved material is \(50 \mathrm{mg} / \mathrm{cm}^{2}\). c. The value of total sum of squares was \(\mathrm{SST}=320.398\). Calculate an estimate of the error standard deviation \(\sigma\) in the simple linear regression model.

Short Answer

Expert verified
a) Slope: increases by 0.144 g/L; \(r^2=0.86\): 86% variance explained. b) 10.878 g/L. c) \(\sigma \approx 1.459\).

Step by step solution

01

Interpreting the Slope

In the regression equation, the coefficient of \(x\) is the slope, which is given as 0.144. This means that for every 1 mg/cm² increase in dissolved material, the average calcium content \(y\) increases by approximately 0.144 g/L.
02

Interpreting the Coefficient of Determination

The coefficient of determination \(r^2\), which is 0.860, indicates how well the regression line fits the data. It means that 86% of the variation in the calcium content \(y\) is explained by the variation in dissolved material \(x\). This is a strong explanatory power for the model.
03

Calculate the Point Estimate for Calcium Content at 50 mg/cm²

To find the point estimate of the calcium content when the dissolved material is 50 mg/cm², substitute \(x = 50\) into the regression equation \(y = 3.678 + 0.144x\): \[y = 3.678 + 0.144(50) = 3.678 + 7.2 = 10.878.\] So, the estimated average calcium content is 10.878 g/L.
04

Calculating Error Standard Deviation \(\sigma\)

The formula for calculating the standard error of the estimate \(\sigma\) in a linear regression is: \[\sigma = \sqrt{\frac{SSE}{n-2}}\] Where \(SSE = SST(1 - r^2)\). First, calculate \(SSE\): \[SSE = 320.398 \times (1 - 0.860) = 320.398 \times 0.140 = 44.85572.\]Now substitute \(SSE = 44.85572\) and \( n = 23 \) into the \(\sigma\) formula: \[\sigma = \sqrt{\frac{44.85572}{23-2}} = \sqrt{\frac{44.85572}{21}} \approx 1.459.\] Thus, the estimated error standard deviation is approximately 1.459.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Slope Interpretation
The slope in a linear regression model represents the relationship between the independent and dependent variables. In this example, the slope is given as 0.144. This number quantifies the expected change in the dependent variable, which is calcium content in grams per liter, for each one-unit increase in the independent variable, the dissolved material in milligrams per square centimeter. In simple terms, if you increase the dissolved material by one milligram per square centimeter, the calcium content is expected to rise by 0.144 grams per liter.

This interpretation is crucial because it allows us to understand the strength and direction of the relationship between two variables. Here, the positive slope indicates a positive relationship: as the dissolved material increases, the calcium content increases as well. Understanding the slope helps in predicting how changes in one variable can affect another.
Coefficient of Determination
The coefficient of determination, denoted as \(r^2\), is a key statistical measure in regression analysis. For the regression model provided, \(r^2 = 0.860\), which suggests that 86% of the variability in the calcium content can be explained by the changes in the dissolved material.

A high \(r^2\) value like 0.860 indicates that our model fits the data very well, capturing a substantial portion of the data's variation. It provides us with confidence that the model's predictions will be relatively accurate.
  • An \(r^2\) value close to 1 means a very good fit.
  • An \(r^2\) value close to 0 indicates a poor fit.
Thus, with \(r^2 = 0.860\), we can trust that our model reliably represents the data trends and relationships.
Point Estimation
Point estimation involves calculating an expected value of the dependent variable based on specific values of the independent variables. In this exercise, the task was to estimate the average calcium content when the dissolved material is 50 mg/cm².

By substituting \(x = 50\) into the regression equation \(y = 3.678 + 0.144x\), we calculated:
  • \(y = 3.678 + 0.144 \times 50 = 10.878\).
This result, 10.878 g/L, is the predicted average calcium content.

Point estimation is vital for making practical predictions in real-world applications. It helps us anticipate the dependent variable's value given certain conditions, providing valuable insights in various fields like economics, engineering, and environmental science.
Error Standard Deviation
The error standard deviation, represented as \(\sigma\), quantifies the typical distance that the data points fall from the regression line. It helps in assessing the accuracy of our regression model. In this case, the calculation process for \(\sigma\) involved the following steps:
  • Calculating the Sum of Squared Errors (SSE) using \(SSE = SST(1 - r^2)\), which resulted in \(SSE = 44.85572\).
  • Applying the formula \(\sigma = \sqrt{\frac{SSE}{n-2}}\), with \(n = 23\), to find \(\sigma \approx 1.459\).
The result, an error standard deviation of approximately 1.459, indicates the average deviation of observed calcium content values from the regression line.

Understanding \(\sigma\) helps in evaluating how well our model predicts actual outcomes. A lower \(\sigma\) suggests more precise predictions, whereas a higher \(\sigma\) points to greater variability and potential inaccuracies in the model.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Bivariate data often arises from the use of two different techniques to measure the same quantity. As an example, the accompanying observations on \(x=\) hydrogen concentration (ppm) using a gas chromatography method and \(y=\) concentration using a new sensor method were read from a graph in the article "A New Method to Measure the Diffusible Hydrogen Content in Steel Weldments Using a Polymer Electrolyte-Based Hydrogen Sensor" (Welding Res., July 1997: 251s-256s). $$ \begin{array}{l|cccccccccc} x & 47 & 62 & 65 & 70 & 70 & 78 & 95 & 100 & 114 & 118 \\ \hline y & 38 & 62 & 53 & 67 & 84 & 79 & 93 & 106 & 117 & 116 \\ x & 124 & 127 & 140 & 140 & 140 & 150 & 152 & 164 & 198 & 221 \\ \hline y & 127 & 114 & 134 & 139 & 142 & 170 & 149 & 154 & 200 & 215 \end{array} $$ Construct a scatter plot. Does there appear to be a very strong relationship between the two types of concentration measurements? Do the two methods appear to be measuring roughly the same quantity? Explain your reasoning.

Show that the "point of averages" \((\bar{x}, \bar{y})\) lies on the estimated regression line.

Suppose that in a certain chemical process the reaction time \(y\) (hr) is related to the temperature \(\left({ }^{\circ} \mathrm{F}\right)\) in the chamber in which the reaction takes place according to the simple linear regression model with equation \(y=5.00-.01 x\) and \(\sigma=.075\). a. What is the expected change in reaction time for a \(1^{\circ} \mathrm{F}\) increase in temperature? For a \(10^{\circ} \mathrm{F}\) increase in temperature? b. What is the expected reaction time when temperature is \(200^{\circ} \mathrm{F}\) ? When temperature is \(250^{\circ} \mathrm{F}\) ? c. Suppose five observations are made independently on reaction time, each one for a temperature of \(250^{\circ} \mathrm{F}\). What is the probability that all five times are between \(2.4\) and \(2.6 \mathrm{hr}\) ? d. What is the probability that two independently observed reaction times for temperatures \(1^{\circ}\) apart are such that the time at the higher temperature exceeds the time at the lower temperature?

The article "A Dual-Buffer Titration Method for Lime Requirement of Acid Mine- soils" (J. of Environ. Qual., 1988: \(452-456\) ) reports on the results of a study relating to revegetation of soil at mine reclamation sites. With \(x=\mathrm{KCl}\) extractable aluminum and \(y=\) amount of lime required to bring soil \(\mathrm{pH}\) to \(7.0\), data in the article resulted in the following summary statistics: \(n=24, \quad \sum x=48.15, \quad \sum x^{2}=\) \(155.4685, \sum y=263.5, \sum y^{2}=3750.53\), and \(\sum x y=658.455\). Carry out a test at significance level .01 to see whether the population correlation coefficient is something other than 0 .

The article "Objective Measurement of the Stretchability of Mozzarella Cheese" (J. of Texture Studies, 1992: 185-194) reported on an experiment to investigate how the behavior of mozzarella cheese varied with temperature. Consider the accompanying data on \(x=\) temperature and \(y=\) elongation \((\%)\) at failure of the cheese. [Note: The researchers were Italian and used real mozzarella cheese, not the poor cousin widely available in the United States.] $$ \begin{array}{l|rrrrrrr} x & 59 & 63 & 68 & 72 & 74 & 78 & 83 \\ \hline y & 118 & 182 & 247 & 208 & 197 & 135 & 132 \end{array} $$ a. Construct a scatter plot in which the axes intersect at \((0,0)\). Mark \(0,20,40,60,80\), and 100 on the horizontal axis and \(0,50,100,150,200\), and 250 on the vertical axis. b. Construct a scatter plot in which the axes intersect at ( 55 , 100 ), as was done in the cited article. Does this plot seem preferable to the one in part (a)? Explain your reasoning. c. What do the plots of parts (a) and (b) suggest about the nature of the relationship between the two variables?

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