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A regression of \(y=\) calcium content \((\mathrm{g} / \mathrm{L})\) on \(x=\) dissolved material \(\left(\mathrm{mg} / \mathrm{cm}^{2}\right)\) was reported in the article "Use of Fly Ash or Silica Fume to Increase the Resistance of Concrete to Feed Acids" (Magazine of Concrete Research, 1997: 337-344). The equation of the estimated regression line was \(y=\) \(3.678+.144 x\), with \(r^{2}=.860\), based on \(n=23\). a. Interpret the estimated slope .144 and the coefficient of determination \(.860\). b. Calculate a point estimate of the true average calcium content when the amount of dissolved material is \(50 \mathrm{mg} / \mathrm{cm}^{2}\). c. The value of total sum of squares was \(\mathrm{SST}=320.398\). Calculate an estimate of the error standard deviation \(\sigma\) in the simple linear regression model.

Short Answer

Expert verified
a) Slope: increases by 0.144 g/L; \(r^2=0.86\): 86% variance explained. b) 10.878 g/L. c) \(\sigma \approx 1.459\).

Step by step solution

01

Interpreting the Slope

In the regression equation, the coefficient of \(x\) is the slope, which is given as 0.144. This means that for every 1 mg/cm² increase in dissolved material, the average calcium content \(y\) increases by approximately 0.144 g/L.
02

Interpreting the Coefficient of Determination

The coefficient of determination \(r^2\), which is 0.860, indicates how well the regression line fits the data. It means that 86% of the variation in the calcium content \(y\) is explained by the variation in dissolved material \(x\). This is a strong explanatory power for the model.
03

Calculate the Point Estimate for Calcium Content at 50 mg/cm²

To find the point estimate of the calcium content when the dissolved material is 50 mg/cm², substitute \(x = 50\) into the regression equation \(y = 3.678 + 0.144x\): \[y = 3.678 + 0.144(50) = 3.678 + 7.2 = 10.878.\] So, the estimated average calcium content is 10.878 g/L.
04

Calculating Error Standard Deviation \(\sigma\)

The formula for calculating the standard error of the estimate \(\sigma\) in a linear regression is: \[\sigma = \sqrt{\frac{SSE}{n-2}}\] Where \(SSE = SST(1 - r^2)\). First, calculate \(SSE\): \[SSE = 320.398 \times (1 - 0.860) = 320.398 \times 0.140 = 44.85572.\]Now substitute \(SSE = 44.85572\) and \( n = 23 \) into the \(\sigma\) formula: \[\sigma = \sqrt{\frac{44.85572}{23-2}} = \sqrt{\frac{44.85572}{21}} \approx 1.459.\] Thus, the estimated error standard deviation is approximately 1.459.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Slope Interpretation
The slope in a linear regression model represents the relationship between the independent and dependent variables. In this example, the slope is given as 0.144. This number quantifies the expected change in the dependent variable, which is calcium content in grams per liter, for each one-unit increase in the independent variable, the dissolved material in milligrams per square centimeter. In simple terms, if you increase the dissolved material by one milligram per square centimeter, the calcium content is expected to rise by 0.144 grams per liter.

This interpretation is crucial because it allows us to understand the strength and direction of the relationship between two variables. Here, the positive slope indicates a positive relationship: as the dissolved material increases, the calcium content increases as well. Understanding the slope helps in predicting how changes in one variable can affect another.
Coefficient of Determination
The coefficient of determination, denoted as \(r^2\), is a key statistical measure in regression analysis. For the regression model provided, \(r^2 = 0.860\), which suggests that 86% of the variability in the calcium content can be explained by the changes in the dissolved material.

A high \(r^2\) value like 0.860 indicates that our model fits the data very well, capturing a substantial portion of the data's variation. It provides us with confidence that the model's predictions will be relatively accurate.
  • An \(r^2\) value close to 1 means a very good fit.
  • An \(r^2\) value close to 0 indicates a poor fit.
Thus, with \(r^2 = 0.860\), we can trust that our model reliably represents the data trends and relationships.
Point Estimation
Point estimation involves calculating an expected value of the dependent variable based on specific values of the independent variables. In this exercise, the task was to estimate the average calcium content when the dissolved material is 50 mg/cm².

By substituting \(x = 50\) into the regression equation \(y = 3.678 + 0.144x\), we calculated:
  • \(y = 3.678 + 0.144 \times 50 = 10.878\).
This result, 10.878 g/L, is the predicted average calcium content.

Point estimation is vital for making practical predictions in real-world applications. It helps us anticipate the dependent variable's value given certain conditions, providing valuable insights in various fields like economics, engineering, and environmental science.
Error Standard Deviation
The error standard deviation, represented as \(\sigma\), quantifies the typical distance that the data points fall from the regression line. It helps in assessing the accuracy of our regression model. In this case, the calculation process for \(\sigma\) involved the following steps:
  • Calculating the Sum of Squared Errors (SSE) using \(SSE = SST(1 - r^2)\), which resulted in \(SSE = 44.85572\).
  • Applying the formula \(\sigma = \sqrt{\frac{SSE}{n-2}}\), with \(n = 23\), to find \(\sigma \approx 1.459\).
The result, an error standard deviation of approximately 1.459, indicates the average deviation of observed calcium content values from the regression line.

Understanding \(\sigma\) helps in evaluating how well our model predicts actual outcomes. A lower \(\sigma\) suggests more precise predictions, whereas a higher \(\sigma\) points to greater variability and potential inaccuracies in the model.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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