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An ecologist wishes to mark off a circular sampling region having radius \(10 \mathrm{~m}\). However, the radius of the resulting region is actually a random variable \(R\) with pdf $$ f(r)=\left\\{\begin{array}{cl} \frac{3}{4}\left[1-(10-r)^{2}\right] & 9 \leq r \leq 11 \\ 0 & \text { otherwise } \end{array}\right. $$ What is the expected area of the resulting circular region?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The expected area is found by evaluating the integral of \(\frac{3\pi}{4}(20r^3 - r^4 - 99r^2)\) from 9 to 11.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Problem

We are required to find the expected area of a circular region, where the radius is a random variable \(R\) with a given probability density function (pdf).
02

Recall the Formula for Area of a Circle

The area \(A\) of a circle with radius \(r\) is given by \(A = \pi r^2\). Since \(r\) is a random variable in this problem, we need to find the expected value \(E(\pi R^2)\).
03

Set Up the Expected Value Calculation

The expected value of a function \(g(R)\) where \(R\) is a continuous random variable is given by \(E[g(R)] = \int_{a}^{b} g(r) f(r) \, dr\). Here, \(g(r) = \pi r^2\) and the limits are \(9\) and \(11\).
04

Integrate to Find the Expected Value

Substitute \(g(r) = \pi r^2\) and \(f(r) = \frac{3}{4}(1 - (10-r)^2)\) into the expected value integral from Step 3:\[E[\pi R^2] = \int_{9}^{11} \pi r^2 \cdot \frac{3}{4}(1 - (10-r)^2) \, dr\]
05

Simplify and Compute the Integral

First, simplify the integrand: \(\pi r^2 \cdot \frac{3}{4}[1 - (10-r)^2] = \frac{3\pi}{4} r^2 (1 - (100 - 20r + r^2)) = \frac{3\pi}{4} r^2 (-r^2 + 20r - 99)\).Integrate this expression with respect to \(r\) from \(9\) to \(11\).
06

Solve the Integral

Calculate the integral from the previous step:\[\frac{3\pi}{4} \int_{9}^{11} (20r^3 - r^4 - 99r^2) \, dr\]Compute each term separately and evaluate the definite integral from \(r = 9\) to \(r = 11\).
07

Evaluate and Combine Results

Compute the antiderivatives of each term, evaluate at the limits, and combine the results to find \(E[\pi R^2]\). Simplify the expression to get the expected area.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability Density Function
A probability density function (pdf) is a critical concept in statistics that describes the likelihood of a continuous random variable taking on a specific value. Unlike discrete probability distributions that use probabilities for individual outcomes, a pdf is used for continuous random variables where the exact probability of the random variable assuming a specific value is zero. Instead, we use a pdf to describe the probability of the variable being within a certain range of values.Some key characteristics of a pdf include:
  • The function must be non-negative for all possible values.
  • The integral of the pdf across the entire space is equal to 1, which ensures that the total probability is 1 (or 100%).
In our original problem, the pdf is given as:\[ f(r)=\left\{\begin{array}{cl} \frac{3}{4}\left[1-(10-r)^{2}\right] & 9 \leq r \leq 11 \ 0 & \text{otherwise} \end{array}\right.\]This implies that the radius \(R\) can vary between 9 and 11 meters, with different probabilities depending on the value of \(r\) within this range.
Continuous Random Variable
A continuous random variable is a type of variable that can take an infinite number of values within a given range. Unlike a discrete random variable, which can only assume distinct and separate values, a continuous random variable can take on any value in an interval. For continuous variables, probability calculations often require integration over the range of possible values to find the probability of the variable being in a specific interval.In the context of the exercise, the radius \(R\) of the circle is a continuous random variable. It is described by a probability density function, allowing it to assume any real value between 9 and 11 meters. This randomness stems from variations in the actual measured radius compared to the intended 10 meters.Importantly, for continuous random variables, the probability of the variable assuming any specific value itself is zero. Instead, we calculate probabilities over intervals, often involving integration. For instance, to calculate the expected value, which is a type of average value of the random variable, we integrate using the pdf over its range.
Area of a Circle
The formula for the area of a circle is essential in this exercise because the expected area is what we're calculating. The area \(A\) of a circle is given by the formula:\[ A = \pi r^2 \]This basic geometric formula provides the relationship between the radius and the area of the circle.In our problem, because the radius \(R\) is not fixed and can vary based on a probability distribution, calculating the area is more complex than merely inserting a radius into the formula. We use the expected value of the area, \(E(\pi R^2)\), by integrating over the possible values of \(R\) given by the pdf.This involves setting up an integration where the function inside the integration is the area formula itself weighted by the probability of each radius value. By solving this integration, we find the expected, or mean, area accounting for all possible radii \(R\) and their likelihood.
Integral Calculus
Integral calculus is a branch of mathematics used to calculate areas, volumes, and accumulations, among other things. It plays a vital role in finding the expected values for continuous random variables, like in our original problem.Integrals allow us to calculate the area under curves, such as the area under a probability density function, to find total probabilities or expected values. In this exercise, we use integral calculus to find the expected value of \(\pi R^2\), which represents the expected area of the circular region.The integral used in this example is:\[ \int_{9}^{11} \pi r^2 \cdot \frac{3}{4}\left(1 - (10-r)^2\right) \, dr \]This integral calculates the area under the curve of the function described, over the interval from 9 to 11. It helps account for the probability-adjusted area calculations, giving us a way to express the likely average area of the sampling region with the random radius \(R\).

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Most popular questions from this chapter

The defect length of a corrosion defect in a pressurized steel pipe is normally distributed with mean value \(30 \mathrm{~mm}\) and standard deviation \(7.8 \mathrm{~mm}\) [suggested in the article "Reliability Evaluation of Corroding Pipelines Considering Multiple Failure Modes and TimeDependent Internal Pressure" \((J\). of Infrastructure Systems, 2011: 216-224)]. a. What is the probability that defect length is at most \(20 \mathrm{~mm}\) ? Less than \(20 \mathrm{~mm}\) ? b. What is the 75 th percentile of the defect length distribution-that is, the value that separates the smallest \(75 \%\) of all lengths from the largest \(25 \%\) ? c. What is the 15 th percentile of the defect length distribution? d. What values separate the middle \(80 \%\) of the defect length distribution from the smallest \(10 \%\) and the largest \(10 \%\) ?

When a dart is thrown at a circular target, consider the location of the landing point relative to the bull's eye. Let \(X\) be the angle in degrees measured from the horizontal, and assume that \(X\) is uniformly distributed on \([0,360]\). Define \(Y\) to be the transformed variable \(Y=h(X)=\) \((2 \pi / 360) X-\pi\), so \(Y\) is the angle measured in radians and \(Y\) is between \(-\pi\) and \(\pi\). Obtain \(E(Y)\) and \(\sigma_{Y}\) by first obtaining \(E(X)\) and \(\sigma_{X}\), and then using the fact that \(h(X)\) is a linear function of \(X\).

Consider babies born in the "normal" range of \(37-43\) weeks gestational age. Extensive data supports the assumption that for such babies born in the United States, birth weight is normally distributed with mean \(3432 \mathrm{~g}\) and standard deviation \(482 \mathrm{~g}\). [The article "Are Babies Normal?"' (The American Statistician, 1999: 298-302) analyzed data from a particular year; for a sensible choice of class intervals, a histogram did not look at all normal, but after further investigations it was determined that this was due to some hospitals measuring weight in grams and others measuring to the nearest ounce and then converting to grams. A modified choice of class intervals that allowed for this gave a histogram that was well described by a normal distribution.] a. What is the probability that the birth weight of a randomly selected baby of this type exceeds \(4000 \mathrm{~g}\) ? Is between 3000 and \(4000 \mathrm{~g}\) ? b. What is the probability that the birth weight of a randomly selected baby of this type is either less than \(2000 \mathrm{~g}\) or greater than \(5000 \mathrm{~g}\) ? c. What is the probability that the birth weight of a randomly selected baby of this type exceeds \(7 \mathrm{lb}\) ? d. How would you characterize the most extreme .1\% of all birth weights? e. If \(X\) is a random variable with a normal distribution and \(a\) is a numerical constant \((a \neq 0\) ), then \(Y=a X\) also has a normal distribution. Use this to determine the distribution of birth weight expressed in pounds (shape, mean, and standard deviation), and then recalculate the probability from part (c). How does this compare to your previous answer?

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When circuit boards used in the manufacture of compact disc players are tested, the long-run percentage of defectives is \(5 \%\). Suppose that a batch of 250 boards has been received and that the condition of any particular board is independent of that of any other board. a. What is the approximate probability that at least \(10 \%\) of the boards in the batch are defective? b. What is the approximate probability that there are exactly 10 defectives in the batch?

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