/*! This file is auto-generated */ .wp-block-button__link{color:#fff;background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;text-decoration:none;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);font-size:1.125em}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff;text-decoration:none} Problem 40 The defect length of a corrosion... [FREE SOLUTION] | 91Ó°ÊÓ

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The defect length of a corrosion defect in a pressurized steel pipe is normally distributed with mean value \(30 \mathrm{~mm}\) and standard deviation \(7.8 \mathrm{~mm}\) [suggested in the article "Reliability Evaluation of Corroding Pipelines Considering Multiple Failure Modes and TimeDependent Internal Pressure" \((J\). of Infrastructure Systems, 2011: 216-224)]. a. What is the probability that defect length is at most \(20 \mathrm{~mm}\) ? Less than \(20 \mathrm{~mm}\) ? b. What is the 75 th percentile of the defect length distribution-that is, the value that separates the smallest \(75 \%\) of all lengths from the largest \(25 \%\) ? c. What is the 15 th percentile of the defect length distribution? d. What values separate the middle \(80 \%\) of the defect length distribution from the smallest \(10 \%\) and the largest \(10 \%\) ?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a) 0.1003; b) 35.26 mm; c) 21.92 mm; d) 19.00 mm and 41.00 mm.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding Normal Distribution

The problem mentions a normally distributed random variable representing the defect length with a mean (\( \mu \)) of 30 mm and a standard deviation (\( \sigma \)) of 7.8 mm. We'll use properties of the normal distribution to solve the problem.
02

Calculating Probability P(X ≤ 20 mm)

To find the probability that defect length is at most 20 mm, we need the standard normal variable: \( Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma} = \frac{20 - 30}{7.8} \approx -1.28 \). By looking up \( Z = -1.28 \) in the standard normal distribution table, the probability \( P(X \leq 20) \approx 0.1003 \).
03

Calculating Probability P(X < 20 mm)

For continuous distributions, \( P(X < 20) = P(X \leq 20) \), so in this context \( P(X < 20) = 0.1003 \).
04

Finding 75th Percentile

To find the 75th percentile, determine \( z \) such that \( P(Z \leq z) = 0.75 \). From the standard normal distribution table, \( z \approx 0.6745 \). Using the formula: \( X = \mu + z \sigma = 30 + 0.6745 \cdot 7.8 \approx 35.26 \). The 75th percentile defect length is approximately 35.26 mm.
05

Finding 15th Percentile

For the 15th percentile, find \( z \) such that \( P(Z \leq z) = 0.15 \). From the table, \( z \approx -1.036 \). Then \( X = 30 - 1.036 \cdot 7.8 \approx 21.92 \). The 15th percentile defect length is approximately 21.92 mm.
06

Values Separating Middle 80%

The middle 80% is bounded by the 10th and 90th percentiles. For 10th percentile, \( z \approx -1.282 \) gives \( X = 30 - 1.282 \cdot 7.8 \approx 19.00 \). For 90th percentile, \( z \approx 1.282 \) gives \( X = 30 + 1.282 \cdot 7.8 \approx 41.00 \). The lengths separating the middle 80% are approximately 19.00 mm and 41.00 mm.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Percentile Calculation
Calculating percentiles is a useful tool when analyzing normal distributions, especially when attempting to understand how data values rank relative to one another.
In our exercise, we worked with a normal distribution to find specific percentiles of defect lengths on a steel pipe.

Percentiles give you the value below which a certain percentage of the data falls.
  • For example, the 75th percentile is the value below which 75% of the data lies.
  • Conversely, the 25% of data that is above this value provides a boundary for the upper quartile.

To find a specific percentile, you look up the corresponding z-value in a standard normal distribution table or use statistical software.Let's see how this applies. For the 75th percentile, the z-value we found was approximately 0.6745. Subsequently, using the formula \( X = \mu + z \sigma \), where \( \mu = 30 \) and \( \sigma = 7.8 \), gave us the specific defect length where 75% of all defects are shorter. This turns out to be about 35.26 mm.
This method helps provide a clear understanding of the diversity of lengths in the dataset.
Probability Calculation
Probability calculations in the context of normal distributions allow us to determine the likelihood of a random variable falling within a certain range.

Consider the example where we're interested in the probability that a corrosion defect length is at most 20 mm.By transforming our normal distribution into a standard normal distribution, we can easily use the cumulative distribution function (CDF) associated with normal distributions.

The formula to find the standard normal variable (z-score) is \( Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma} \).
  • Here, \( X \) is the value we're interested in (20 mm), \( \mu = 30 \) is the mean, and \( \sigma = 7.8 \) is the standard deviation.
  • This gives us \( Z = \frac{20 - 30}{7.8} \approx -1.28 \).

Using a standard normal distribution table or calculator, you find the probability that the defect length is less than or equal to 20 mm is approximately 0.1003.
This interpretation is crucial for understanding how likely certain defects occur within the dataset.
Standard Deviation
The standard deviation is a measure of how spread out the numbers in a data set are around the mean.

In the context of our exercise, the standard deviation plays a key role in interpreting the normal distribution of defect lengths.

The standard deviation \( \sigma = 7.8 \) mm indicates how much variation or "dispersion" there is from average defect lengths. More specifically:
  • A smaller standard deviation would imply that most defect lengths are close to the mean.
  • A larger standard deviation would denote that defect lengths are spread out over a wider range of values.

Understanding standard deviation is vital as it helps in calculating the z-scores, which in turn, facilitate the probability calculations and percentile determinations in a normal distribution.A solid grasp of standard deviation allows for better predictions about variability in data, which is critical in applications like material quality assessments.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Vehicle speed on a particular bridge in China can be modeled as normally distributed ("Fatigue Reliability Assessment for Long-Span Bridges under Combined Dynamic Loads from Winds and Vehicles" \(J\). of Bridge Engr., 2013: 735-747). a. If \(5 \%\) of all vehicles travel less than \(39.12 \mathrm{~m} / \mathrm{h}\) and \(10 \%\) travel more than \(73.24 \mathrm{~m} / \mathrm{h}\), what are the mean and standard deviation of vehicle speed? [Note: The resulting values should agree with those given in the cited article.] b. What is the probability that a randomly selected vehicle's speed is between 50 and \(65 \mathrm{~m} / \mathrm{h}\) ? c. What is the probability that a randomly selected vehicle's speed exceeds the speed limit of \(70 \mathrm{~m} / \mathrm{h}\) ?

Based on an analysis of sample data, the article "Pedestrians' Crossing Behaviors and Safety at Unmarked Roadways in China" (Accident Analysis and Prevention, 2011: 1927-1936) proposed the pdf \(f(x)=.15 e^{-.15(x-1)}\) when \(x \geq 1\) as a model for the distribution of \(X=\) time (sec) spent at the median line. a. What is the probability that waiting time is at most \(5 \mathrm{sec}\) ? More than \(5 \mathrm{sec}\) ? b. What is the probability that waiting time is between 2 and \(5 \sec\) ?

The article "A Model of Pedestrians" Waiting Times for Street Crossings at Signalized Intersections" (Transportation Research, 2013: 17-28) suggested that under some circumstances the distribution of waiting time \(X\) could be modeled with the following pdf: $$ f(x ; \theta, \tau)=\left\\{\begin{array}{cl} \frac{\theta}{\tau}(1-x / \tau)^{\theta-1} & 0 \leq x<\tau \\ 0 & \text { otherwise } \end{array}\right. $$ a. Graph \(f(x ; \theta, 80)\) for the three cases \(\theta=4,1\), and .5 (these graphs appear in the cited article) and comment on their shapes. b. Obtain the cumulative distribution function of \(X\). c. Obtain an expression for the median of the waiting time distribution. d. For the case \(\theta=4, \tau=80\), calculate \(P(50 \leq X \leq 70)\) without at this point doing any additional integration.

Consider babies born in the "normal" range of \(37-43\) weeks gestational age. Extensive data supports the assumption that for such babies born in the United States, birth weight is normally distributed with mean \(3432 \mathrm{~g}\) and standard deviation \(482 \mathrm{~g}\). [The article "Are Babies Normal?"' (The American Statistician, 1999: 298-302) analyzed data from a particular year; for a sensible choice of class intervals, a histogram did not look at all normal, but after further investigations it was determined that this was due to some hospitals measuring weight in grams and others measuring to the nearest ounce and then converting to grams. A modified choice of class intervals that allowed for this gave a histogram that was well described by a normal distribution.] a. What is the probability that the birth weight of a randomly selected baby of this type exceeds \(4000 \mathrm{~g}\) ? Is between 3000 and \(4000 \mathrm{~g}\) ? b. What is the probability that the birth weight of a randomly selected baby of this type is either less than \(2000 \mathrm{~g}\) or greater than \(5000 \mathrm{~g}\) ? c. What is the probability that the birth weight of a randomly selected baby of this type exceeds \(7 \mathrm{lb}\) ? d. How would you characterize the most extreme .1\% of all birth weights? e. If \(X\) is a random variable with a normal distribution and \(a\) is a numerical constant \((a \neq 0\) ), then \(Y=a X\) also has a normal distribution. Use this to determine the distribution of birth weight expressed in pounds (shape, mean, and standard deviation), and then recalculate the probability from part (c). How does this compare to your previous answer?

The article "Second Moment Reliability Evaluation vs. Monte Carlo Simulations for Weld Fatigue Strength" (Quality and Reliability Engr. Intl., 2012: 887-896) considered the use of a uniform distribution with \(A=.20\) and \(B=4.25\) for the diameter \(X\) of a certain type of weld (mm). a. Determine the pdf of \(X\) and graph it. b. What is the probability that diameter exceeds \(3 \mathrm{~mm}\) ? c. What is the probability that diameter is within \(1 \mathrm{~mm}\) of the mean diameter? d. For any value \(a\) satisfying .20

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