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NBC News reported on May 2,2013 , that 1 in 20 children in the United States have a food allergy of some sort. Consider selecting a random sample of 25 children and let \(X\) be the number in the sample who have a food allergy. Then \(X \sim \operatorname{Bin}(25, .05)\). a. Determine both \(P(X \leq 3)\) and \(P(X<3)\). b. Determine \(P(X \geq 4)\). c. Determine \(P(1 \leq X \leq 3)\). d. What are \(E(X)\) and \(\sigma_{X}\) ? e. In a sample of 50 children, what is the probability that none has a food allergy?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. P(X ≤ 3) = 0.8571, P(X < 3) = 0.7168; b. P(X ≥ 4) = 0.1429; c. P(1 ≤ X ≤ 3) = 0.8416; d. E(X) = 1.25, σ_X = 1.091; e. P(X = 0) ≈ 0.0758.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Problem

We're dealing with a binomial distribution, where each child either has or does not have a food allergy. The number of trials is 25, and the probability of a child having a food allergy is 0.05.
02

P(X ≤ 3) Calculation

To find \( P(X \leq 3) \), compute the sum of probabilities for \( X = 0, 1, 2, 3 \) using the binomial probability formula: \[ P(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k} \] where \( n = 25 \) and \( p = 0.05 \).
03

Calculate Individual Probabilities

Compute the individual probabilities: \( P(X = 0) \), \( P(X = 1) \), \( P(X = 2) \), and \( P(X = 3) \) using the formula from Step 2.
04

Sum Probabilities for P(X ≤ 3)

Add the probabilities from Step 3 to find \( P(X \leq 3) \).
05

Calculate P(X < 3)

Calculate \( P(X < 3) \) by summing \( P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) \).
06

Determine P(X ≥ 4) Using Complement

Find \( P(X \geq 4) \) using the complement rule: \( P(X \geq 4) = 1 - P(X \leq 3) \).
07

Calculate P(1 ≤ X ≤ 3)

Sum the probabilities \( P(X = 1), P(X = 2), \text{ and } P(X = 3) \) calculated in Step 3.
08

Calculate E(X) and \(\sigma_X\)

Find the expected value \( E(X) = np = 25 \times 0.05 = 1.25 \) and the standard deviation \( \sigma_X = \sqrt{np(1-p)} = \sqrt{25 \times 0.05 \times 0.95} \).
09

Use Binomial Formula for 50 Children

To find the probability that none of the 50 children has an allergy, use \( P(X = 0) = \binom{50}{0} (0.05)^0 (0.95)^{50} \). Calculate this using the same formula used in Step 3.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability Calculation
In the context of the binomial distribution, probability calculation involves finding the likelihood that a certain number of trials result in success, which in our case is a child having a food allergy. This is done using the binomial probability formula:

\[ P(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k} \]
where:
  • \( n \) is the total number of trials (children sampled, 25 in our case),
  • \( k \) is the number of successful trials (children with allergies),
  • \( p \) is the probability of success on a single trial (0.05 for a food allergy),
  • \( \binom{n}{k} \) is a binomial coefficient representing the number of ways to choose \( k \) successes from \( n \) trials.

For this exercise, you'll calculate probabilities for various values of \( X \) using this formula. For instance, finding \( P(X \leq 3) \) requires summing the individual probabilities for \( X = 0, 1, 2, \) and \( 3 \). It's important to carefully compute each part of the formula to ensure correct results.
Expected Value
The expected value in a binomial distribution gives us the average number of successes we'd expect from a large number of trials. It's a central measure that helps predict future outcomes based on the distribution's parameters.

The expected value \( E(X) \) of a binomial distribution is calculated using:
\[ E(X) = np \]
In our exercise, the expected value can be found by multiplying the number of trials \( n = 25 \) by the probability of success \( p = 0.05 \), which results in:
\[ E(X) = 25 \times 0.05 = 1.25 \]
This means that, on average, out of the 25 children sampled, we expect about 1.25 children to have a food allergy. Even though practically, a fraction of a child doesn't make sense, this calculation helps guide expectations over many repeated samples.
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation in a binomial distribution tells us how much the number of successes (children with food allergies) is expected to vary from the average (expected value). It's a key component in understanding the distribution's spread or variability.

To find the standard deviation \( \sigma_X \) for a binomial distribution, use the formula:
\[ \sigma_X = \sqrt{np(1-p)} \]
For our case, plug in the values: \( n = 25 \), \( p = 0.05 \), and \( 1-p = 0.95 \).
Thus, the calculation is:
\[ \sigma_X = \sqrt{25 \times 0.05 \times 0.95} \]
Calculating this gives us a standard deviation, indicating the extent of variation from the expected value of approximately 1.25 children with allergies in our sample.
Complement Rule
The complement rule is an essential concept in probability that helps when it's easier to calculate the probability of the opposite (complementary) event, especially when you want probabilities like "at least" or "at most".

If you want to find the probability of at least 4 children having a food allergy (\( P(X \geq 4) \)), you can use the complement rule.

The formula using the complement rule is:
\[ P(X \geq 4) = 1 - P(X \leq 3) \]
Here, \( P(X \leq 3) \) can be calculated as the sum of probabilities for \( X = 0, 1, 2, \) and \( 3 \). Once you have \( P(X \leq 3) \), subtract it from 1 to find \( P(X \geq 4) \).

This approach simplifies computations by focusing on the probabilities of fewer outcomes, effectively making precise calculations more accessible.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

After all students have left the classroom, a statistics professor notices that four copies of the text were left under desks. At the beginning of the next lecture, the professor distributes the four books in a completely random fashion to each of the four students \((1,2,3\), and 4) who claim to have left books. One possible outcome is that 1 receives 2 's book, 2 receives 4 's book, 3 receives his or her own book, and 4 receives l's book. This outcome can be abbreviated as \((2,4,3,1)\). a. List the other 23 possible outcomes. b. Let \(X\) denote the number of students who receive their own book. Determine the pmf of \(X\).

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An individual who has automobile insurance from a certain company is randomly selected. Let \(Y\) be the number of moving violations for which the individual was cited during the last 3 years. The pmf of \(Y\) is \begin{tabular}{l|cccc} \(y\) & 0 & 1 & 2 & 3 \\ \hline\(p(y)\) & \(.60\) & \(.25\) & \(.10\) & \(.05\) \end{tabular} a. Compute \(E(Y)\). b. Suppose an individual with \(Y\) violations incurs a surcharge of \(\$ 100 Y^{2}\). Calculate the expected amount of the surcharge.

Each time a component is tested, the trial is a success ( \(S\) ) or failure \((F)\). Suppose the component is tested repeatedly until a success occurs on three consecutive trials. Let \(Y\) denote the number of trials necessary to achieve this. List all outcomes corresponding to the five smallest possible values of \(Y\), and state which \(Y\) value is associated with each one.

The article "Expectation Analysis of the Probability of Failure for Water Supply Pipes" (J. of Pipeline Systems Engr. and Practice, May 2012: 36-46) proposed using the Poisson distribution to model the number of failures in pipelines of various types. Suppose that for cast-iron pipe of a particular length, the expected number of failures is 1 (very close to one of the cases considered in the article). Then \(X\), the number of failures, has a Poisson distribution with \(\mu=1\). a. Obtain \(P(X \leq 5)\) by using Appendix Table A.2. b. Determine \(P(X=2)\) first from the pmf formula and then from Appendix Table A.2. c. Determine \(P(2 \leq X \leq 4)\). d. What is the probability that \(X\) exceeds its mean value by more than one standard deviation?

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