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An experimenter is studying the effects of temperature, pressure, and type of catalyst on yield from a certain chemical reaction. Three different temperatures, four different pressures, and five different catalysts are under consideration. a. If any particular experimental run involves the use of a single temperature, pressure, and catalyst, how many experimental runs are possible? b. How many experimental runs are there that involve use of the lowest temperature and two lowest pressures? c. Suppose that five different experimental runs are to be made on the first day of experimentation. If the five are randomly selected from among all the possibilities, so that any group of five has the same probability of selection, what is the probability that a different catalyst is used on each run?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. 60 runs; b. 10 runs; c. Probability is approximately 0.0456.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Basic Setup for Part (a)

We are given three variables: temperature, pressure, and catalyst. For each of these, there are a number of options available: 3 temperatures, 4 pressures, and 5 catalysts. Each experimental run involves choosing one option from each category.
02

Calculate Total Runs for Part (a)

The total number of experimental runs is the product of the choices available for temperature, pressure, and catalyst. This is calculated as follows:\[3 \text{ (temperatures)} \times 4 \text{ (pressures)} \times 5 \text{ (catalysts)} = 60 \text{ (total runs)}\]
03

Understand the Conditions for Part (b)

For part (b), the experiment specifies using only the lowest temperature and the two lowest pressures. This reduces the number of choices for these variables.
04

Calculate Runs for Part (b)

The calculation for part (b) involves fixing one temperature and choosing from two pressures, while still choosing from all 5 catalysts:\[1 \text{ (temperature)} \times 2 \text{ (pressures)} \times 5 \text{ (catalysts)} = 10 \text{ runs}\]
05

Understand Selection Probability for Part (c)

We need to determine the probability of selecting 5 experimental runs such that each run uses a different catalyst. This is a combinatorial selection problem.
06

Calculate Total Possible Combinations for Part (c)

First, calculate the total number of ways to select 5 experimental runs from the 60 possible runs:\[\binom{60}{5}\text{ total combinations}\]
07

Determine Valid Combinations for Part (c)

To ensure each run uses a different catalyst, select 1 run from each of the 5 catalyst options. For each catalyst, the number of combinations available is the number of temperature-pressure pairings:\[3 \text{ (temperatures)} \times 4 \text{ (pressures)} = 12 \text{ pairings per catalyst}\]Therefore, the number of ways to select one pairing for each of the 5 catalysts is:\[12^5\]
08

Calculate Probability for Part (c)

Divide the number of valid combinations by the total combinations:\[\frac{12^5}{\binom{60}{5}}\text{ is the probability that each run uses a different catalyst}\]
09

Simplify the Expression

Calculate the values:\[12^5 = 248832\ \text{and}\ \binom{60}{5} = 5461512\]So the probability is:\[\frac{248832}{5461512} \approx 0.0456\]

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Experimental Design
Understanding how to systematically organize and perform experiments is crucial in scientific research. In this exercise, the experiment is focused on examining the effect of different temperatures, pressures, and catalysts on a chemical reaction's yield.

Experimental design involves planning how to vary these conditions to observe different outcomes. Here, the experimenter has three temperatures, four pressures, and five catalysts to choose from. This setup allows us to apply combinatorial probability calculations to predict the number of possible experimental runs. Each run represents a unique combination of one temperature, one pressure, and one catalyst. By designing experiments this way, researchers can better understand the independent and combined effects of these variables.

With this design, data can be collected systematically, helping experimenters make informed decisions about the optimal conditions for the highest yield.
Combinatorics
Combinatorics is a field of mathematics focused on counting, analyzing, and understanding combinations and permutations of objects. In our experiment, we use combinatorics to calculate the number of possible experimental runs.

  • Each experimental run consists of one temperature, one pressure, and one catalyst.
  • The number of combinations can be figured out by multiplying the number of choices for each variable: 3 temperatures, 4 pressures, and 5 catalysts.
This gives us a total of \(3 \times 4 \times 5 = 60\) experimental runs, representing all possible unique combinations.

By restricting the selection to specific conditions, as in part (b) of the exercise, we again apply combinatorics to calculate the new total. When the lowest temperature and only the two lowest pressures are used, we calculate: \(1 \times 2 \times 5 = 10\) possible runs. Combinatorics helps in systematically determining these possibilities, allowing us to handle complex variety without exhaustive or redundant testing.
Probability Calculation
Probability calculations help us understand the likelihood of certain outcomes in experiments with multiple possibilities. For this exercise, our goal is to find the probability that five different experimental runs will each use a different catalyst.

  • First, determine the total number of ways to pick 5 runs out of the possible 60, captured by the combination formula: \(\binom{60}{5}\).
  • Next, ensure each of these 5 runs uses a different catalyst. Choose one run from each catalyst option, where each catalyst has 12 temperature-pressure pairings: \(3 \cdot 4 = 12\).
  • Thus, the number of valid sets of 5 runs is \(12^5\).
Finally, the probability calculation involves dividing the valid combinations by the total combinations, giving us \(\frac{12^5}{\binom{60}{5}}\). This computation shows there is approximately a 4.56% chance that each selected run will use a different catalyst. Probability calculation is a powerful tool that enables us to quantify uncertainty and make informed predictions about experimental outcomes.

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