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You are told that a \(95 \%\) CI for expected lead content when traffic flow is 15 , based on a sample of \(n=10\) observations, is \((462.1,597.7)\). Calculate a CI with confidence level \(99 \%\) for expected lead content when traffic flow is \(15 .\)

Short Answer

Expert verified
The 99% CI for expected lead content is (440.7, 619.1).

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Confidence Interval

The provided confidence interval (CI) is a range that estimates the parameter with a certain level of confidence. Here, we have a 95% CI for the expected lead content given as (462.1, 597.7), which means we are 95% confident the true mean lies within this range.
02

Calculate the Margin of Error for 95% CI

For a 95% CI, the margin of error (ME) can be found using the equation: \( ME = \frac{\text{Upper limit} - \text{Lower limit}}{2} \). Substitute the given limits: \( ME = \frac{597.7 - 462.1}{2} = 67.8 \). This margin of error accounts for the variability in our sample.
03

Determine the Standard Error

The standard error (SE) can be found by dividing the margin of error by the critical value (z-value) for a 95% CI. The z-value for 95% confidence is approximately 1.96. Therefore, \(SE = \frac{67.8}{1.96} = 34.6 \).
04

Find the Critical Value for 99% CI

The next step is to find the critical value for a 99% Confidence Interval. For a normal distribution, the z-value for 99% confidence is approximately 2.576.
05

Calculate the Margin of Error for 99% CI

Using the standard error from Step 3 and the critical value from Step 4: \( ME_{99} = 2.576 \times 34.6 = 89.2 \).
06

Calculate the 99% Confidence Interval

Now, update the bounds of the confidence interval using the new margin of error. Start with the midpoint of the original 95% CI: \(\frac{462.1 + 597.7}{2} = 529.9 \). The new 99% CI is given by the midpoint ± the new margin of error: \([529.9 - 89.2, 529.9 + 89.2]\). Calculating these gives [440.7, 619.1].

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Margin of Error
The margin of error (often abbreviated as ME) is a statistical term used to measure the uncertainty in an estimate. It essentially tells us how much we can expect the result to vary from the true value. For a confidence interval, the margin of error represents the half-width of the interval.

For example, if you have an upper and lower limit for a confidence interval, you can calculate the margin of error by finding the difference between the two, divided by 2. Using the original exercise, the formula used was:
  • \( ME = \frac{597.7 - 462.1}{2} = 67.8 \)
This value indicates that when generating a 95% confidence interval, the true population parameter we are estimating (like the mean) is "67.8 units" closer or further away from the midpoint.

Understanding the margin of error is crucial because it not only tells us about the precision of our estimate but also helps when comparing different confidence intervals. The larger the margin of error, the less precise the estimate is.
Standard Error
The standard error (SE) is a measure of how much sampling variability exists in the data. It's calculated from the margin of error and the critical value linked to a specific confidence interval.

Simply put, standard error gives a clue about how spread out data points are in a sample. To find it, you can apply this formula:
  • \( SE = \frac{ME}{ ext{Critical Value}} \)
Using the 95% confidence level as a reference from the step-by-step solution, the critical value used was 1.96, giving us:
  • \( SE = \frac{67.8}{1.96} = 34.6 \)
This value of SE indicates the average distance of sample means from the overall population mean, providing a sense of the estimate's precision. The smaller the standard error, the more accurate the sample mean is as an estimate of the population mean. It acts as a foundation for constructing confidence intervals and hypothesis testing.
Critical Value
The critical value plays a pivotal role in determining the boundaries of confidence intervals. It's a point on a probability distribution that is associated with the level of confidence.

The critical value, often represented as a "z-score" in a normal distribution, determines how many standard deviations away from the mean your boundary lines are on either side. For the problem at hand, a 95% confidence interval used a critical value of 1.96, while a 99% confidence interval uses 2.576.

The general understanding is:
  • Higher confidence levels will have larger critical values because you're going further out to capture more of the bell curve.
  • The critical value directly impacts the margin of error; as the critical value increases, so does the margin of error.
In practical terms, knowing your critical value helps in accurately setting up your confidence interval limits, especially when you aim for greater certainty (like 99% rather than 95%). The z-scores are derived based on the desired confidence level and the inherent distribution characteristics.

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