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The article "Response of \(\mathrm{SiC}_{2} / \mathrm{Si}_{3} \mathrm{~N}_{4}\) Composites Under Static and Cyclic Loading-An Experimental and Statistical Analysis" (J. of Engr: Materials and Technology, 1997: 186-193) suggests that tensile strength (MPa) of composites under specified conditions can be modeled by a Weibull distribution with \(\alpha=9\) and \(\beta=180\). a. Sketch a graph of the density function. b. What is the probability that the strength of a randomly selected specimen will exceed 175 ? Will be between 150 and \(175 ?\) c. If two randomly selected specimens are chosen and their strengths are independent of one another, what is the probability that at least one has a strength between 150 and 175 ? d. What strength value separates the weakest \(10 \%\) of all specimens from the remaining \(90 \%\) ?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. Sketch the Weibull pdf. b. \( P(X > 175) \approx 0.2602 \); \( P(150 < X < 175) \approx 0.3943 \). c. Probability \( \approx 0.6216 \). d. Strength \( \approx 134.33 \) MPa.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Weibull Distribution

The Weibull distribution is a continuous probability distribution defined by a shape parameter \( \alpha \) and a scale parameter \( \beta \). Given \( \alpha = 9 \) and \( \beta = 180 \), the probability density function (pdf) is \( f(x; \alpha, \beta) = \left( \frac{\alpha}{\beta} \right) \left( \frac{x}{\beta} \right)^{\alpha - 1} e^{-(x/\beta)^\alpha} \).
02

Sketch the Density Function

To sketch the pdf of the given Weibull distribution, you can plot \( x \) against \( f(x; 9, 180) \). Notice that with \( \alpha = 9 \), the distribution resembles the normal distribution but is slightly skewed. The density starts at zero, rises to a peak, and then falls back to zero.
03

Calculate Probability of Exceeding 175

Find \( P(X > 175) \) using the complementary cumulative distribution function (ccdf): \[ P(X > 175) = 1 - F(175; 9, 180) = 1 - e^{-(175/180)^9} \].Calculate the probability using the values for \( \alpha \) and \( \beta \).
04

Calculate Probability Between 150 and 175

For probability between two values, find \( P(150 < X < 175) \) by computing:\[ F(175; 9, 180) - F(150; 9, 180) = e^{-(150/180)^9} - e^{-(175/180)^9} \].
05

Probability for Two Specimens

Here, each specimen has the probability of its strength between 150 and 175 given by step 4. Denote this probability as \( p \). The probability that at least one strength is in the range is:\[ 1 - (1-p)^2 \].
06

Calculate the 10th Percentile

To find the strength value separating the weakest 10%, calculate the 10th percentile using:\[ x_p = \beta (-\ln(1-p))^{1/\alpha} \] where \( p = 0.10 \). This expresses the value of \( x \) which the bottom 10% of strengths do not exceed.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Tensile Strength
Tensile strength is a crucial property for materials, revealing how much pulling or tensile force a material can withstand before breaking. It is measured in units of force per area, such as MegaPascals (MPa). Tensile strength gives insights into the durability and lifespan of materials, making it significant for engineering and material science. Consider tensile strength as a performance measure that helps determine how suitable a material is for specific applications.
In the case of composites such as SiC/N4 materials, tensile strength can vary widely influenced by factors like the production process and inherent material properties. In mathematical models, these variations can be captured through statistical distributions such as the Weibull distribution, which can efficiently model the distribution of tensile strengths among different specimens.
Probability Calculations
Probability calculations are essential for understanding the likelihood of certain events occurring within a distribution. For a Weibull distribution, these calculations often involve determining how likely it is that a specimen's tensile strength exceeds or falls within certain bounds.
For example, calculating the probability that tensile strength exceeds 175 MPa involves using the cumulative distribution function (CDF). The CDF is used to calculate the area under the probability density function (PDF) up to a point, representing the likelihood of randomness creating an outcome less than this value. Here, calculations are done using the complementary CDF to find the probability of tensile strength exceeding this threshold, providing valuable insights for reliability tests and quality assessments.
Percentile Calculation
Percentile calculation helps identify the value below which a certain percentage of observations fall in. In engineering and material science, it's often used to determine thresholds such as the weakest 10% of specimens.
To find this threshold value in a Weibull distribution, you apply statistical formulas that take the shape and scale parameters into account. Specifically, the formula \( x_p = \beta (-\ln(1-p))^{1/\alpha} \) is utilized to determine the strength value that separates a specified lower percentile from the rest. Here, the weakest 10% is determined by setting \( p = 0.10 \), capturing a precise and meaningful assessment of lower strength limits.
Weibull Density Function
The Weibull density function is a mathematical representation used to describe the distribution of a random variable, modeled by its shape \( \alpha \) and scale \( \beta \) parameters. By defining these parameters, the function can accurately model a wide range of behaviors from a quick failure rate to a failure time that increases with usage.
For tensile strength studies, this density function is particularly beneficial in determining the probability of observing certain strengths across various specimens. As such, when the Weibull pdf is graphed, it gives a visualization of how common or rare certain tensile strengths are within a given data set. Its flexibility makes the Weibull density function valuable for modeling strength distributions in composite materials.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Let \(V\) denote rainfall volume and \(W\) denote runoff volume (both in mm). According to the article "Runoff Quality Analysis of Urban Catchments with Analytical Probability Models" (J. of Water Resource Planning and Management, 2006: 4 -14), the runoff volume will be 0 if \(V \leq v_{d}\) and will be \(k\left(V-v_{d}\right)\) if \(V>v_{d}\). Here \(v_{d}\) is the volume of depression storage (a constant), and \(k\) (also a constant) is the runoff coefficient. The cited article proposes an exponential distribution with parameter \(\lambda\) for \(V\). a. Obtain an expression for the cdf of \(W\). [Note: \(W\) is neither purely continuous nor purely discrete; instead it has a "mixed" distribution with a discrete component at 0 and is continuous for values \(w>0\).] b. What is the pdf of \(W\) for \(w>0\) ? Use this to obtain an expression for the expected value of runoff volume.

The article "Modeling Sediment and Water Column Interactions for Hydrophobic Pollutants" (Water Research, 1984: 1169-1174) suggests the uniform distribution on the interval \((7.5,20)\) as a model for depth (cm) of the bioturbation layer in sediment in a certain region. a. What are the mean and variance of depth? b. What is the cdf of depth? c. What is the probability that observed depth is at most 10 ? Between 10 and 15 ? d. What is the probability that the observed depth is within 1 standard deviation of the mean value? Within 2 standard deviations?

The article "The Statistics of Phytotoxic Air Pollutants" (J. of Royal Stat. Soc., 1989: 183-198) suggests the lognormal distribution as a model for \(\mathrm{SO}_{2}\) concentration above a certain forest. Suppose the parameter values are \(\mu=1.9\) and \(\sigma=.9\). a. What are the mean value and standard deviation of concentration? b. What is the probability that concentration is at most 10 ? Between 5 and 10 ?

Let \(X\) denote the temperature at which a certain chemical reaction takes place. Suppose that \(X\) has pdf $$ f(x)=\left\\{\begin{array}{cl} \frac{1}{9}\left(4-x^{2}\right) & -1 \leq x \leq 2 \\ 0 & \text { otherwise } \end{array}\right. $$ a. Sketch the graph of \(f(x)\). b. Determine the cdf and sketch it. c. Is 0 the median temperature at which the reaction takes place? If not, is the median temperature smaller or larger than 0? d. Suppose this reaction is independently carried out once in each of ten different labs and that the pdf of reaction time in each lab is as given. Let \(Y=\) the number among the ten labs at which the temperature exceeds 1. What kind of distribution does \(Y\) have? (Give the names and values of any parameters.)

Let \(X=\) the time (in \(10^{-1}\) weeks) from shipment of a defective product until the customer returns the product. Suppose that the minimum return time is \(\gamma=3.5\) and that the excess \(X-3.5\) over the minimum has a Weibull distribution with parameters \(\alpha=2\) and \(\beta=1.5\) (see "Practical Applications of the Weibull Distribution" Industrial Quality Control, Aug. 1964:71-78). a. What is the cdf of \(X\) ? b. What are the expected return time and variance of return time? [Hint: First obtain \(E(X-3.5)\) and \(V(X-3.5)\).] c. Compute \(P(X>5)\). d. Compute \(P(5 \leq X \leq 8)\).

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