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The weight distribution of parcels sent in a certain manner is normal with mean value \(12 \mathrm{lb}\) and standard deviation \(3.5 \mathrm{lb}\). The parcel service wishes to establish a weight value \(c\) beyond which there will be a surcharge. What value of \(c\) is such that \(99 \%\) of all parcels are at least \(1 \mathrm{lb}\) under the surcharge weight?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The surcharge weight value \(c\) is approximately \(21.16\) lb.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the normal distribution parameters

The problem states that parcel weights are normally distributed with a mean value (\(\mu\)) of \(12\) lb and a standard deviation (\(\sigma\)) of \(3.5\) lb. We need to find a value \(c\) such that \(99\%\) of parcels are weighing at least \(1\) lb less than \(c\). This means that \(99\%\) of the parcel weights should be \(\leq (c - 1)\).
02

Find the corresponding z-score

In a standard normal distribution, \(99\%\) of values are below a z-score of approximately \(2.33\). This means we need to equate \(c - 1\) to the value where a z-score of \(2.33\) would result in covers \(99\%\) of the distribution.
03

Set up the equation using the z-score formula

Use the z-score formula \(z = \frac{x - \mu}{\sigma}\), where \(z = 2.33\), \(x = c - 1\), \(\mu = 12\), and \(\sigma = 3.5\). Set up the equation: \[2.33 = \frac{(c - 1) - 12}{3.5}\]
04

Solve for c

First, solve the equation for \((c - 1)\): \[\begin{align*}2.33 &= \frac{c - 1 - 12}{3.5} \2.33 \times 3.5 &= c - 1 - 12 \8.155 &= c - 13 \c &= 8.155 + 13 \c &= 21.155\end{align*}\]Thus, \(c \approx 21.155\).
05

Conclusion

By calculating using the normal distribution properties and z-score, the surcharge weight value \(c\) is such that \(c \approx 21.155\). Thus, the surcharge threshold should be set at around \(21.16\) lb.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Understanding Z-scores
A z-score is a statistical measurement that describes a value's relation to the mean of a group of values. It's expressed in terms of standard deviations from the mean. If the z-score is 0, it indicates that the value's position is identical to the mean. To calculate the z-score of a particular data point, use the formula:\[z = \frac{x - \mu}{\sigma}\]where:
  • \(z\) is the z-score,
  • \(x\) is the value of the element,
  • \(\mu\) is the mean of the data set,
  • \(\sigma\) is the standard deviation.
Z-scores are used extensively when working with normal distributions. They tell us how far away a particular value is from the mean and allow us to gauge where that value falls within a standard normal distribution. With a standard normal distribution, a z-score of 2.33 means that 99% of the data values are below this z-score.
The Role of Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is a measure of the amount of variation or dispersion in a set of values. A lower standard deviation means that the values tend to be close to the mean value, while a higher standard deviation indicates that the values are spread out over a larger range. In the context of the normal distribution, it helps in understanding the z-score by indicating how spread out the data is. The standard deviation is crucial in interpreting z-scores since a bigger standard deviation means that the same z-score will represent a larger range of data values.Calculating the standard deviation involves finding the square root of the variance, which is the average of the squared differences from the Mean. More technically, for a data set:\[\sigma = \sqrt{\frac{1}{N} \sum_{i=1}^{N}(x_i - \mu)^2}\]where:
  • \(N\) is the number of observations,
  • \(x_i\) is each individual observation,
  • \(\mu\) is the mean of these observations.
Standard deviation, when paired with the mean, provides a complete picture of the data set's variability.
Mean Value in Normal Distribution
The mean value, often denoted as \(\mu\), is the average of all the data points in a set. In a normal distribution, it's the peak of the bell curve, where most data points are concentrated.To compute the mean, you'd sum all the data points and divide by the number of data points, which looks something like this:\[\mu = \frac{\sum_{i=1}^{N} x_i}{N}\]where:
  • \(x_i\) is each data point, and
  • \(N\) is the total number of data points.
In the context of the parcel weight problem, the mean helps in determining where most of the parcel weights lie. Knowing that the mean is 12 lb allows the service to assess how typical a given parcel’s weight is across all their parcels. The mean is critical in relation to the standard deviation, as it establishes a reference point or center from which variability is measured.

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