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The authors of the article "A Probabilistic Insulation Life Model for Combined Thermal-Electrical Stresses" (IEEE Trans. on Elect. Insulation, 1985: 519-522) state that "the Weibull distribution is widely used in statistical problems relating to aging of solid insulating materials subjected to aging and stress." They propose the use of the distribution as a model for time (in hours) to failure of solid insulating specimens subjected to \(\mathrm{AC}\) voltage. The values of the parameters depend on the voltage and temperature; suppose \(\alpha=2.5\) and \(\beta=200\) (values suggested by data in the article). a. What is the probability that a specimen's lifetime is at most 250 ? Less than 250 ? More than 300 ? b. What is the probability that a specimen's lifetime is between 100 and 250 ? c. What value is such that exactly \(50 \%\) of all specimens have lifetimes exceeding that value?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. 0.858, 0.858, 0.0143; b. 0.696; c. 165.69.

Step by step solution

01

Weibull Probability Density Function

The Weibull distribution's probability density function (pdf) is defined as \( f(t; \alpha, \beta) = \frac{\alpha}{\beta} \left(\frac{t}{\beta}\right)^{\alpha - 1} e^{-(t/\beta)^\alpha} \) for \( t \geq 0 \). Here \( \alpha = 2.5 \) and \( \beta = 200 \). However, we will focus on the cumulative distribution function (CDF) for calculating probabilities.
02

Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF)

The CDF of a Weibull distribution, which gives the probability that a random variable is less than or equal to a certain value, is \( F(t; \alpha, \beta) = 1 - e^{-(t/\beta)^\alpha} \). We'll apply this to find different probabilities.
03

Probability that the Lifetime is at Most 250

We calculate \( P(T \leq 250) \) using the CDF: \( F(250) = 1 - e^{-(250/200)^{2.5}} \). Plug in the values and evaluate.
04

Probability Calculation for Lifetime at Most 250

Compute \( 250/200 = 1.25 \). Raise to the power of 2.5 to get \( 1.25^{2.5} \approx 1.95 \). Then compute \( e^{-1.95} \approx 0.142 \). Thus, \( F(250) = 1 - 0.142 = 0.858 \). So, the probability is \( 0.858 \).
05

Probability that Lifetime is Less than 250

Since \( P(T < 250) = P(T \leq 250) \), the probability that the specimen's lifetime is less than 250 is also \( 0.858 \).
06

Probability that Lifetime is More than 300

This is given by \( P(T > 300) = 1 - F(300) \). Compute \( F(300) = 1 - e^{-(300/200)^{2.5}} \). Follow similar computation steps to find \( F(300)= 1- e^{-4.2187} \approx 0.9857 \). Thus, \( P(T > 300) = 1 - 0.9857 = 0.0143 \).
07

Probability that Lifetime is Between 100 and 250

Compute this as \( P(100 < T \leq 250) = F(250) - F(100) \). Calculate \( F(100) = 1 - e^{-(100/200)^{2.5}} \). Follow steps to find \( e^{-0.1768} \approx 0.838 \). So, \( F(100) \approx 0.162 \). Hence, \( P(100 < T \leq 250) = 0.858 - 0.162 = 0.696 \).
08

Calculating the 50th Percentile (Median)

Find \( t \) such that \( F(t) = 0.5 \). This means solving \( 1 - e^{-(t/200)^{2.5}} = 0.5 \). Hence, \( e^{-(t/200)^{2.5}} = 0.5 \). Take the natural logarithm: \( -(t/200)^{2.5} = \ln(0.5) \). Solve for \( t \): \[ t = 200 \cdot (-\ln(0.5))^{1/2.5} \approx 165.69 \].

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Statistical Modeling
Statistical modeling is a powerful tool used to understand and predict behaviors and outcomes in various fields. In the context of the Weibull distribution, it helps us model the aging and failure time of materials, such as solid insulating specimens. This model can adapt to different environments and conditions by adjusting its parameters.
For instance, the Weibull distribution is often applied by altering its shape parameter \( \alpha \) and scale parameter \( \beta \). These parameters influence the distribution's form and the interpretation of its results. Through statistical modeling, we can bring mathematics and real-world data together to make informed predictions.
It is not only about fitting a model to data but understanding the phenomena we are studying. In engineering and material science, it assists in predicting product longevity and identifying failure risks. By incorporating statistical modeling, engineers can improve product reliability and design more robust systems.
Probability Density Function
The Probability Density Function (PDF) is a fundamental concept in probability and statistics, especially in continuous distributions like the Weibull. The PDF provides the likelihood of a random variable taking a specific value, though for continuous variables, it is more about understanding the area under the curve.
The Weibull distribution's PDF is expressed by the formula: \[ f(t; \alpha, \beta) = \frac{\alpha}{\beta} \left(\frac{t}{\beta}\right)^{\alpha - 1} e^{-(t/\beta)^\alpha} \]This function allows us to examine how different values of \( t \) affect the probability densities. The coefficients \( \alpha \) (shape parameter) and \( \beta \) (scale parameter) tailor the distribution's behavior to fit specific data sets.
  • At low or high parameter values, the PDF curve changes dramatically, influencing the interpretation of failure times.
  • With engineering applications, the PDF helps identify times where failures are most likely, useful in quality control and reliability testing.
Understanding the PDF is essential for interpreting data distributions and executing more sophisticated statistical analyses.
Cumulative Distribution Function
The Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) plays a crucial role in understanding and using statistical distributions like the Weibull. It represents the probability that a random variable is less than or equal to a certain value. This function builds from the idea that we might be more interested in the cumulative probability up to a point, rather than the probability at a single instance.
For the Weibull distribution, the CDF is given by:\[ F(t; \alpha, \beta) = 1 - e^{-(t/\beta)^\alpha} \]By using the CDF, we can calculate various probabilities effectively, such as the likelihood a material will fail before a certain time. This distribution function is vital for engineers assessing risk and reliability as it provides an aggregated view of failure times across a whole population of products.
  • The CDF helps calculate probabilities for ranges (e.g., the probability that life is between two time points).
  • It is particularly useful for finding certain percentiles, such as the median lifetime in reliability testing.
By leveraging the CDF, we can model real-life materials' performance under stress and make proactive adjustments.
Reliability Engineering
Reliability engineering encompasses the principles and practices dedicated to ensuring a product or system performs its intended function without failure over a specified period. The Weibull distribution is frequently used in this discipline to model and predict failures of products over time.
Reliability engineers rely on statistical models to understand how and when products may fail. With Weibull analysis, they can probe different life stages of a product from its early life failures to its expected long lifetime. By estimating parameters like \( \alpha \) and \( \beta \), engineers gain insights into the product's durability and improvement areas.
Key responsibilities in reliability engineering include:
  • Conducting life data analysis using tools like the Weibull distribution.
  • Performing risk assessments to evaluate potential failure impacts.
  • Creating designs that are robust to a variety of stress factors and environmental conditions.
Overall, reliability engineering focuses on minimizing failure rates, thereby enhancing the safety, quality, and longevity of products or systems by applying statistical methods and analysis.

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