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Question:Suppose that a specific population of individuals is composed of k different strata (k ≥ 2), and that for i = 1,...,k, the proportion of individuals in the total population who belong to stratum i is pi, where pi > 0 and\(\sum\nolimits_{{\bf{i = 1}}}^{\bf{k}} {{{\bf{p}}_{\bf{i}}}{\bf{ = 1}}} \). We are interested in estimating the mean value μ of a particular characteristic among the total population. Among the individuals in stratum i, this characteristic has mean\({{\bf{\mu }}_{\bf{i}}}\)and variance\({\bf{\sigma }}_{\bf{i}}^{\bf{2}}\), where the value of\({{\bf{\mu }}_{\bf{i}}}\)is unknown and the value of\({\bf{\sigma }}_{\bf{i}}^{\bf{2}}\)is known. Suppose that a stratified sample is taken from the population as follows: From each stratum i, a random sample of ni individuals is taken, and the characteristic is measured for each individual. The samples from the k strata are taken independently of each other. Let\({{\bf{\bar X}}_{\bf{i}}}\)denote the average of the\({{\bf{n}}_{\bf{i}}}\)measurements in the sample from stratum i.

a. Show that\({\bf{\mu = }}\sum\nolimits_{{\bf{i = 1}}}^{\bf{k}} {{{\bf{p}}_{\bf{i}}}{{\bf{\mu }}_{\bf{i}}}} \), and show also that\({\bf{\hat \mu = }}\sum\nolimits_{{\bf{i = 1}}}^{\bf{k}} {{{\bf{p}}_{\bf{i}}}{{{\bf{\bar X}}}_{\bf{i}}}} \)is an unbiased estimator of μ.

b. Let\({\bf{n = }}\sum\nolimits_{{\bf{i = 1}}}^{\bf{k}} {{{\bf{n}}_{\bf{i}}}} \)denote the total number of observations in the k samples. For a fixed value of n, find the values for which the variance \({\bf{\hat \mu }}\)will be a minimum.

Short Answer

Expert verified

a. Proved.\(\hat \mu = \sum\nolimits_{i = 1}^k {{p_i}{{\bar X}_i}} \) is an unbiased estimator of\(\mu \)

b. \({n_i} = \frac{{n{p_i}{\sigma _i}}}{{\sum\limits_{j = 1}^k {{p_j}{\sigma _j}} }}\), the values \({n_1},...,{n_k}\) for which variance is minimum

Step by step solution

01

Given information

A certain population of individuals is k different strata.

The proportion of individuals in the total population belong to the stratum i is\({p_i}\)

For the individuals in stratum i, this characteristic has mean \({\mu _i}\) and variance \(\sigma _i^2\)

02

(a) Calculation for an unbiased estimator

Let X denote the value of the characteristic for a person chosen at random from the total population, and let\({A_i}\)denote the event that the person belongs to stratum i\(\left( {i = 1,...,k} \right)\)

Then,

\(\begin{aligned}{}\mu &= E\left( X \right)\\ &= \sum\limits_{i = 1}^k {E\left( {X\left| {{A_i}} \right.} \right)P\left( {{A_i}} \right)} \\ &= \sum\limits_{i - 1}^k {{\mu _i}{p_i}} \end{aligned}\)

Also,

\(\begin{aligned}{}E\left( {\hat \mu } \right) &= \sum\limits_{i = 1}^k {{p_i}E\left( {{{\bar X}_i}} \right)} \\ &= \sum\limits_{i = 1}^k {{p_i}{\mu _i}} \\ &= \mu \end{aligned}\)

Hence, \(\hat \mu = \sum\nolimits_{i = 1}^k {{p_i}{{\bar X}_i}} \) is an unbiased estimator of \(\mu \). [Proved]

03

(b) Calculation for the minimum variance

The samples are taken independently of each other; the variables\({\bar X_1},...,{\bar X_k}\)are independent

Therefore,

\(\begin{aligned}{}Var\left( {\hat \mu } \right) &= \sum\limits_{i = 1}^k {p_i^2Var\left( {{{\bar X}_i}} \right)} \\ &= \sum\limits_{i = 1}^k {\frac{{p_i^2\sigma _i^2}}{{{n_i}}}} \end{aligned}\)

Hence, the values of\({n_1},...,{n_k}\)must be chosen to minimize,

\(v = \sum\limits_{i = 1}^k {\frac{{{{\left( {{p_i}{\sigma _i}} \right)}^2}}}{{{n_i}}}} \)

Subject to the constraint that\(\sum\limits_{i = 1}^k {{n_i} = n} \)

If let, \[{n_k} = n - \sum\limits_{i = 1}^{k - 1} {{n_i}} \]

Then,

\(\begin{aligned}{}\frac{{\partial v}}{{\partial {n_i}}} &= \frac{\partial }{{\partial {n_i}}}\left( {\sum\limits_{i = 1}^k {\frac{{{{\left( {{p_i}{\sigma _i}} \right)}^2}}}{{{n_i}}}} } \right)\\ &= \frac{{ - {{\left( {{p_i}{\sigma _i}} \right)}^2}}}{{n_i^2}} + \frac{{{{\left( {{p_k}{\sigma _k}} \right)}^2}}}{{n_k^2}}\,\,\,for\,\,\,i = 1,...,k - 1\end{aligned}\)

When each of the partial derivatives is set equal to 0, it is found that\(\frac{{{n_i}}}{{\left( {{p_i}{\sigma _i}} \right)}}\)has the same value for\(i = 1,...,k\)

Therefore,

\({n_i} = c{p_i}{\sigma _i}\)for some constant c.

It follows that

\(\begin{aligned}{}n &= \sum\limits_{j = 1}^k {{n_j}} \\ &= c\sum\limits_{j = 1}^k {{p_j}{\sigma _j}} \end{aligned}\)

Hence, \(c = \frac{n}{{\sum\limits_{j = 1}^k {{p_j}{\sigma _j}} }}\)

Then,

\({n_i} = \frac{{n{p_i}{\sigma _i}}}{{\sum\limits_{j = 1}^k {{p_j}{\sigma _j}} }}\)

The minimum integers for v would presumably be near the minimizing values of\({n_1},...,{n_k}\)which have just been found.

Therefore, \({n_i} = \frac{{n{p_i}{\sigma _i}}}{{\sum\limits_{j = 1}^k {{p_j}{\sigma _j}} }}\), the values \({n_1},...,{n_k}\) for which variance is minimum

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Using the prior and data in the numerical example on nursing homes in New Mexico in this section, find (a) the shortest possible interval such that the posterior probability that \({\bf{\mu }}\) lies in the interval is 0.90, and (b) the shortest possible confidence interval for \({\bf{\mu }}\) which the confidence coefficient is 0.90.

The study on acid concentration in cheese included a total of 30 lactic acid measurements, the 10 given in Example 8.5.4 on page 487 and the following additional 20:

1.68, 1.9, 1.06, 1.3, 1.52, 1.74, 1.16, 1.49, 1.63, 1.99, 1.15, 1.33, 1.44, 2.01, 1.31, 1.46, 1.72, 1.25, 1.08, 1.25.

a. Using the same prior as in Example 8.6.2 on page 498, compute the posterior distribution of \({\bf{\mu }}\,\,{\bf{and}}\,\,{\bf{\tau }}\) based on all 30 observations.

b. Use the posterior distribution found in Example 8.6.2 on page 498 as if it were the prior distribution before observing the 20 observations listed in this problem. Use these 20 new observations to find the posterior distribution of \({\bf{\mu }}\,\,{\bf{and}}\,\,{\bf{\tau }}\)and compare the result to the answer to part (a).

Suppose that \({X_1},...,{X_n}\) are i.i.d. having the normal distribution with mean μ and precision \(\tau \) given (μ, \(\tau \) ). Let (μ, \(\tau \) ) have the usual improper prior. Let \({\sigma '^{2}} = \frac{{s_n^2}}{{n - 1}}\) . Prove that the posterior distribution of \(V = \left( {n - 1} \right){\sigma '^{2}}\tau \) is the χ2 distribution with n − 1 degrees of freedom.

Suppose that \({{\bf{X}}_{\bf{1}}}{\bf{, }}{\bf{. }}{\bf{. }}{\bf{. , }}{{\bf{X}}_{\bf{n}}}\) form a random sample from the normal distribution with unknown mean \({\bf{\mu }}\,\,{\bf{and}}\,\,{\bf{\tau }}\), and also that the joint prior distribution of \({\bf{\mu }}\,\,{\bf{and}}\,\,{\bf{\tau }}\) is the normal-gamma distribution satisfying the following conditions: \({\bf{E}}\left( {\bf{\mu }} \right){\bf{ = 0}}\,\,\,\,{\bf{,E}}\left( {\bf{\tau }} \right){\bf{ = 2,E}}\left( {{{\bf{\tau }}^{\bf{2}}}} \right){\bf{ = 5}}\,\,\,{\bf{and}}\,\,{\bf{Pr}}\left( {\left| {\bf{\mu }} \right|{\bf{ < 1}}{\bf{.412}}} \right){\bf{ = 0}}{\bf{.5}}\)Determine the prior hyperparameters \({{\bf{\mu }}_{\bf{0}}}{\bf{,}}{{\bf{\lambda }}_{\bf{0}}}{\bf{,}}{{\bf{\alpha }}_{\bf{0}}}{\bf{,}}{{\bf{\beta }}_{\bf{0}}}\)

In the situation of Example 8.5.11, suppose that we observe\({{\bf{X}}_{\bf{1}}}{\bf{ = 4}}{\bf{.7}}\;{\bf{and}}\;{{\bf{X}}_{\bf{2}}}{\bf{ = 5}}{\bf{.3}}\).

  1. Find the 50% confidence interval described in Example 8.5.11.
  2. Find the interval of possibleθvalues consistent with the observed data.
  3. Is the 50% confidence interval larger or smaller than the set of possibleθvalues?
  4. Calculate the value of the random variable\({\bf{Z = }}{{\bf{Y}}_{\bf{2}}}{\bf{ - }}{{\bf{Y}}_{\bf{1}}}\)as described in Example 8.5.11.
  5. Use Eq. (8.5.15) to compute the conditional probability that\(\left| {{{{\bf{\bar X}}}_{\bf{2}}}{\bf{ - \theta }}} \right|{\bf{ < 0}}{\bf{.1}}\)givenZ isequal to the value calculated in part (d).
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