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Suppose that the proportion of defective items in a large manufactured lot is 0.1. What is the smallest random sample of items that must be taken from the lot in order for the probability to be at least 0.99 that the proportion of defective items in the sample will be less than 0.13?

Short Answer

Expert verified

The smallest possible value of n is 542

Step by step solution

01

Given information

A huge produced batch contains 0.1 percent faulty goods.

The proportion of defective items is 0.13

02

Finding the smallest sample

The distribution of the proportion\({\bar X_n}\)of defective items in the sample will be approximately the normal distribution, with the mean is,

\(\mu = 0.1\)

The variance is,

\(\begin{array}{c}{\sigma ^2} = \frac{{0.1 \times 0.9}}{n}\\ = \frac{{0.09}}{n}\end{array}\)

The standard deviation is,

\(\begin{array}{c}\sigma = \sqrt {\frac{{0.09}}{n}} \\ = \frac{{0.3}}{{\sqrt n }}\end{array}\)

The distribution,

\(\begin{array}{c}Z = \frac{{\sqrt n \left( {{{\bar X}_n} - \mu } \right)}}{\sigma }\\ = \frac{{\sqrt n \left( {{{\bar X}_n} - 0.1} \right)}}{{0.3}}\end{array}\)

Then the distribution of Z will be an approximately standard normal distribution.

It follows that,

\(\begin{array}{c}\Pr \left( {{{\bar X}_n} < 0.13} \right) = \Pr \left( {Z < 0.1\sqrt n } \right)\\ \approx \Phi \left( {0.1\sqrt n } \right)\end{array}\)

But,

\(\begin{array}{c}\Phi \left( {0.1\sqrt n } \right) \ge 0.99\\0.1\sqrt n \ge {\Phi ^{ - 1}}\left( {0.99} \right)\\0.1\sqrt n \ge 2.327\\\sqrt n \ge 23.27\end{array}\)

\(\begin{array}{c}n \ge 541.4929\\n \ge 541.5\end{array}\)

Therefore, the smallest possible value of n is 542

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