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Using the correction for continuity, determine the probability required in Exercise 2 of Sec. 6.3.

Short Answer

Expert verified

Probability that the number of people from the suburbs attending the concert will be fewer than 270 is \(0.0210\).

Step by step solution

01

Given information

75% of peoples from the metropolitan area live in the city.

25% of the people live in the suburbs.

02

Calculating the probability of the number of people from the suburbs attending the concert will be fewer than 270.

The total number of people X from the suburbs attending the concert can be regarded as the sum of 1200 independent random variables, each of which has a Bernoulli distribution with parameter\(p = \frac{1}{4}\)and\(q = 1 - p\)

Therefore, the distribution of X will be approximately normal distribution with mean,

\(\begin{array}{c}np = 1200\left( {\frac{1}{4}} \right)\\ = 300\end{array}\)

and the variance,

\(\begin{array}{c}npq = 1200\left( {\frac{1}{4}} \right)\left( {\frac{3}{4}} \right)\\ = 225\end{array}\)

Let\(Z = \frac{{\left( {X - 300} \right)}}{{15}}\)

Then the distribution of Z will be approximately a standard normal distribution.

Hence,

\(\begin{array}{c}{\rm P}\left( {H < 270} \right) = {\rm P}\left( {X \le 269.5} \right)\\ = {\rm P}\left( {Z \le \frac{{269.5 - 300}}{{15}}} \right)\end{array}\)

\({\rm P}\left( {H < 270} \right) \approx 1 - \phi \left( {2.033} \right)\)

\({\rm P}\left( {H < 270} \right) \approx 0.0210\)

Therefore,Probability that the number of people from the suburbs attending the concert will be fewer than 270 is\(0.0210\).

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Suppose that 75 percent of the people in a certain metropolitan area live in the city and 25 percent of the people live in the suburbs. If 1200 people attending a certain concert represent a random sample from the metropolitan area, what is the probability that the number of people from the suburbs attending the concert will be fewer than 270?

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