Chapter 2: Q11E (page 65)
For any two events A and B with Pr(B) > 0, prove that Pr(Ac|B) = 1 鈭 Pr(A|B).
Short Answer
For any two events A and B with Pr(B) > 0, the following relation is true:
\(P\left( {{A^C}|B} \right) = 1 - P\left( {A|B} \right)\)
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Chapter 2: Q11E (page 65)
For any two events A and B with Pr(B) > 0, prove that Pr(Ac|B) = 1 鈭 Pr(A|B).
For any two events A and B with Pr(B) > 0, the following relation is true:
\(P\left( {{A^C}|B} \right) = 1 - P\left( {A|B} \right)\)
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Consider again the box containing the five different coins described in Exercise 7. Suppose that one coin is selected at random from the box and is tossed repeatedly until a head is obtained.
a. If the first head is obtained on the fourth toss, what is the posterior probability that theith coin was selected (i=1, . . .,5)?
b. If we continue to toss the same coin until another head is obtained, what is the probability that exactly three additional tosses will be required?
Consider a machine that produces items in sequence. Under normal operating conditions, the items are independent with a probability of 0.01 of being defective. However, it is possible for the machine to develop a 鈥渕emory鈥 in the following sense: After each defective item, and independent of anything that happened earlier, the probability that the next item is defective is\(\frac{{\bf{2}}}{{\bf{5}}}\). After each non-defective item, and independent of anything that happened earlier, the probability that the next item is defective is\(\frac{{\bf{1}}}{{{\bf{165}}}}\).
Please assume that the machine is operating normally for the whole time we observe or has a memory for the whole time we observe. LetBbe the event that the machine is operating normally, and assume that\({\bf{Pr}}\left( {\bf{B}} \right){\bf{ = }}\frac{{\bf{2}}}{{\bf{3}}}\). Let\({{\bf{D}}_{\bf{i}}}\)be the event that theith item inspected is defective. Assume that\({{\bf{D}}_{\bf{1}}}\)is independent ofB.
a. Prove that\({\bf{Pr}}\left( {{{\bf{D}}_{\bf{i}}}} \right){\bf{ = 0}}{\bf{.01}}\) for alli. Hint:Use induction.
b. Assume that we observe the first six items and the event that occurs is\({\bf{E = D}}_{\bf{1}}^{\bf{c}} \cap {\bf{D}}_{\bf{2}}^{\bf{c}} \cap {{\bf{D}}_3} \cap {{\bf{D}}_4} \cap {\bf{D}}_{\bf{5}}^{\bf{c}} \cap {\bf{D}}_{\bf{6}}^{\bf{c}}\). The third and fourth items are defective, but the other four are not. Compute\({\bf{Pr}}\left( {{\bf{B}}\left| {\bf{E}} \right.} \right)\).
Three studentsA,B, andC,are enrolled in the same class. Suppose thatAattends class 30 percent of the time,Battends class 50 percent of the time, andCattends class 80 percent of the time. If these students attend classindependently of each other, what is (a) the probability that at least one of them will be in class on a particular day and (b) the probability that exactly one of them will be in class on a particular day?
If five balls are thrown at random into n boxes, and all throws are independent, what is the probability that no box contains more than two balls?
Suppose that a balanced die is rolled three times, and let\({X_i}\)denote the number that appears on the ith roll (i = 1, 2, 3). Evaluate\({\rm P}\left( {{X_1} > {X_2} > X3} \right)\).
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