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Exponential Probability Between 12:00pm and 1:00pm, cars arrive at Citibank’s drive-thru at the rate of 6cars per hour (0.1car per minute). The following formula from statistics can be used to determine the probability that a car will arrive within t minutes of 12:00pm.

Ft=1-e-0.1t

(a) Determine how many minutes are needed for the probability to reach 50%.

(b) Determine how many minutes are needed for the probability to reach 80%.

(c) Is it possible for the probability to equal 100%? Explain

Short Answer

Expert verified

(a) We need 6.93min to reach 50%.

(b) We need 16.09min to reach 80%.

(c) It is not possible for the probability to be100%.

Step by step solution

01

Part (a) Step 1. Given information

It is given thatFt=1-e-0.1t. We need to determine how many minutes are needed for the probability to reach50%.

02

Step 2. Simplify

50% is 0.5substitute 0.5to Ftin role="math" localid="1647185215992" Ft=1-e-0.1t.

0.5=1-e-0.1t.

0.5-1=-e-0.1t.

e-0.1t=0.5.

-0.1t=ln0.5.

t=ln0.50.1.

t≈6.93min.

03

Part (b) Step 1. Given information

It is given thatFt=1-e-0.1t.We need to determine how many minutes are needed for probability to reach80%.

04

Step 2. Simplify

80%is 0.8. Substitute 0.8to Ftin role="math" localid="1647185499742" Ft=1-e-0.1t.

0.8=1-e-0.1t.

0.8-1=-e-0.1t.

-0.2=e-0.1t.

t=ln0.2-0.1.

t≈16.09min.

05

Part (c) Step 1. Given information

It is given that Ft=1-e-0.1t.We need to explain it is possible for the probability to equal100%.

06

Step 2. Explanation

100%is 1,substitute 1to Ftin,

Ft=1-e-0.1t.

1-=1-e-0.1t.

-e-0.1t=0.

The value ofe-0.1twill never is zero. Thus it is not possible for the probability to be100%.

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