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Eye color, Part II. Exercise 4.13 introduces a husband and wife with brown eyes who have 0.75 probability of having children with brown eyes, 0.125 probability of having children with blue eyes, and 0.125 probability of having children with green eyes. (a) What is the probability that their first child will have green eyes and the second will not? (b) What is the probability that exactly one of their two children will have green eyes? (c) If they have six children, what is the probability that exactly two will have green eyes? (d) If they have six children, what is the probability that at least one will have green eyes? (e) What is the probability that the first green eyed child will be the \(4^{\text {th }}\) child? (f) Would it be considered unusual if only 2 out of their 6 children had brown eyes?

Short Answer

Expert verified
(a) 0.109375 (b) 0.21875 (c) 0.1547 (d) 0.6651 (e) 0.0837 (f) Yes, unusual.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Problem

The problem involves calculating probabilities related to the eye color of children, given the probabilities of different eye colors for each child. The probabilities are: - Brown eyes: 0.75 - Blue eyes: 0.125 - Green eyes: 0.125.
02

Part (a): Probability of First Child with Green Eyes and Second Not

To find the probability of the first child having green eyes, use the given probability of 0.125. The probability that the second child does not have green eyes is 1 minus the probability of having green eyes, i.e., 0.875. Thus, the probability for this scenario is:\[ P(G, \sim G) = 0.125 \times 0.875 = 0.109375 \]
03

Part (b): Probability of Exactly One Child with Green Eyes

There are two scenarios: the first child has green eyes and the second does not, or the first does not and the second does. Calculate each:1. First child has green eyes, second does not: \[ P(G, \sim G) = 0.125 \times 0.875 = 0.109375 \]2. First child does not have green eyes, second does: \[ P(\sim G, G) = 0.875 \times 0.125 = 0.109375 \]Add these two probabilities for the final answer:\[ P(\text{exactly one green}) = 0.109375 + 0.109375 = 0.21875 \]
04

Part (c): Probability of Exactly Two Green-Eyed Children out of Six

Use the binomial probability formula \( P(X=k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k} \), where \( n = 6 \), \( k = 2 \), and \( p = 0.125 \) for green eyes:\[ P(X=2) = \binom{6}{2} (0.125)^2 (0.875)^{4} \]Calculating this gives:\[ P(X=2) = 15 \times 0.015625 \times 0.586181640625 = 0.1546630859375 \]
05

Part (d): Probability of At Least One Green-Eyed Child out of Six

Calculate the probability of zero children having green eyes, then subtract from 1:1. Zero green-eyed children: \[ P(X=0) = \binom{6}{0} (0.125)^0 (0.875)^6 = 1 \times 0.334934 \]Calculate the complement:\[ P(X \geq 1) = 1 - 0.334934 = 0.665066 \]
06

Part (e): Probability That the First Green-Eyed Child is the 4th Child

The first three children must not have green eyes, and the fourth must:\[ P(\sim G, \sim G, \sim G, G) = (0.875)^3 \times 0.125 = 0.669921875 \times 0.125 = 0.083740234375 \]
07

Part (f): Unusualness of Only 2 out of 6 Children Having Brown Eyes

Calculate the probability of having 2 brown-eyed children out of 6, using the probability of brown eyes (0.75):\[ P(X=2) = \binom{6}{2} (0.75)^2 (0.25)^4 \]This probability is very small, indicating it would indeed be unusual for only 2 of the 6 children to have brown eyes.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Binomial Distribution
In probability theory, the binomial distribution is a discrete probability distribution that describes the number of successes in a fixed number of independent experiments, each with the same probability of success. This concept was employed in the exercise for parts (c) and (d), where the probability that exactly two out of six children have green eyes was computed. To use the binomial distribution, we need to know:
  • The number of trials: For instance, having six children.
  • The number of successes: Such as exactly two children having green eyes.
  • The probability of success on an individual trial: Here, it's 0.125 for green eyes.
The formula for binomial distribution is given by:\[P(X=k) = \binom{n}{k}p^k(1-p)^{n-k}\]where \( \binom{n}{k} \) is the binomial coefficient, \( p \) is the probability of success, and \( n \) is the number of trials. For instance, the calculation:\[P(X=2) = \binom{6}{2}(0.125)^2(0.875)^{4}\]When computed, gives the probability that exactly two out of six children will have green eyes, allowing us to predict outcomes based on known probabilities.
Combinatorics
Combinatorics is a branch of mathematics that deals with counting, arrangement, and combination of objects. It plays a crucial role in understanding probabilities, particularly in scenarios where outcomes need to be selected from a set number of trials, as in the eye color problem. When solving questions involving combinations, such as determining the probability of a specific number of successes, we use combinatorial formulas. For instance, calculating the probability of exactly two green-eyed children out of six involves determining how many different ways you can choose two children to have green eyes out of six. Here, we use the binomial coefficient \( \binom{n}{k} \), which reads as 'n choose k' and represents the number of ways to choose \( k \) successes out of \( n \) trials. In our exercise, when computing:\[\binom{6}{2} = 15\]it determines there are 15 different ways to select which two out of the six children have green eyes. This helps us in accurately determining probabilities by considering all possible combinations.
Probability Calculation
Probability calculation involves using mathematical principles to determine the likelihood of a specific outcome. It's critical in understanding the overall chances of various events like eye color inheritance. To calculate the probability of a particular outcome, such as one child having green eyes and the other not, we multiply the respective probabilities of each event occurring. For example, if the first child can have green eyes with a probability of 0.125, and the second child can have a different eye color with a probability of 0.875, the probability for the sequence (first child green, second child not) is:\[P(G, \sim G) = 0.125 \times 0.875 = 0.109375\]This principle repeats itself in the overall method to calculate the probabilities of more complex sequences or combinations of events, keeping in mind each child's eye color result does not influence the others.
Independent Events
Understanding independent events is fundamental to solving problems in probability theory. Two events are independent if the occurrence of one does not affect the occurrence of the other. In the context of the exercise, each child's eye color is considered an independent event.For instance, the probability that the first child has green eyes does not alter the probability of the second child having or not having green eyes. This concept ensures that when we calculate the probability for multiple children, we treat each event separately and multiply the probabilities of each event.Calculating probabilities, such as finding exactly one green-eyed child, requires recognizing these independent events and figuring out each combination of outcomes (one child having green eyes: \( P(G, \sim G) \) or \( P(\sim G, G) \)). The calculation:\[0.109375 + 0.109375 = 0.21875\]reflects the principle of independent events being considered separately, ensuring all possible scenarios are accounted for accurately.

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