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A test of whether a coin is fair will be based on \(n=50\) tosses. Let \(X\) be the resulting number of heads. Consider two rejection regions: \(R_{1}=\\{x\) : either \(x \leq 17\) or \(x \geq 33\\}\) and \(R_{2}=\\{x\) : either \(x \leq 18\) or \(x \geq 37\\}\) a. Determine the significance level (type I error probability) for each rejection region. b. Determine the power of each test when \(p=.49\). Is the test with rejection region \(R_{1}\) a uniformly most powerful level .033 test? Explain. c. Is the test with rejection region \(R_{2}\) unbiased? Explain. d. Sketch the power function for the test with rejection region \(R_{1}\), and then do so for the test with the rejection region \(R_{2}\). What does your intuition suggest about the desirability of using the rejection region \(R_{2}\) ?

Short Answer

Expert verified
R1 has significance 0.0322 and R2 has 0.0389. R1 is close to uniformly most powerful; R2 is unbiased.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate Type I Error for R1

The null hypothesis here is that the coin is fair, implying that the number of heads follows a binomial distribution with parameters \(n = 50\) and \(p = 0.5\). The significance level for \(R_1\) is the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true, calculated as\[ P(X \leq 17) + P(X \geq 33) \].Using a binomial distribution table or a calculator:\[ P(X \leq 17) \approx 0.0161 \] and \[ P(X \geq 33) \approx 0.0161 \]. Therefore, the significance level for \(R_1\) is approximately \[ 0.0161 + 0.0161 = 0.0322 \].
02

Calculate Type I Error for R2

For \(R_2\), the significance level is:\[ P(X \leq 18) + P(X \geq 37) \].Using a binomial distribution:\[ P(X \leq 18) \approx 0.0386 \] and \[ P(X \geq 37) \approx 0.0003 \]. Therefore, the significance level for \(R_2\) is approximately \[ 0.0386 + 0.0003 = 0.0389 \].
03

Calculate Power of Test for R1 with p=0.49

Power of a test is calculated as the probability of correctly rejecting the null hypothesis:\[ P(X \leq 17 \text{ or } X \geq 33 \mid p = 0.49) \].With \(p = 0.49\), use the binomial distribution:\[ P(X \leq 17) \approx 0.0215 \text{ and } P(X \geq 33) \approx 0.0106 \]. Thus, power for \(R_1\) is \[ 0.0215 + 0.0106 = 0.0321 \].
04

Evaluate Uniformly Most Powerful Test for R1

A test is uniformly most powerful at a given level if it has the highest power among all tests of that level. Since the significance level for \(R_1\) is close to 0.033, and the power calculation aligns with this, \(R_1\) is a candidate for being uniformly most powerful at this level. However, numerical computations alone (in the absence of comparison with other tests) might not confirm this designation absolutely.
05

Assess Unbiasedness of R2

A test is unbiased if, for all alternative hypotheses, the probability of rejecting the null is greater than the significance level. Given that the significance level is 0.0389, compare \(P(X \leq 18 \text{ or } X \geq 37 \mid p = 0.49)\) to this value. Since \(P \approx 0.0395\) is slightly greater at \(p = .49\) than the significance level, it means \(R_2\) may be considered unbiased.
06

Sketch Power Function for R1

The power function gives the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis for each potential true value of \(p\). Calculate power values at endpoints and several midpoints in given \(p\) range for \(R_1\). Plot these values, showing increase in power as \(p\) deviates more from 0.5.
07

Sketch Power Function for R2

Repeat the procedure for \(R_2\), plotting the power at a sampled set of potential true \(p\) values. The graph for \(R_2\) will start lower near \(p=0.5\) but may rise differently from \(R_1\), indicating different sensitivity and desirability based on the hypothesized value.
08

Discuss Suitability of R2

\(R_2\) has a slightly higher significance level and potentially different power profile. Its suitability depends on the context; if minimizing Type I error is crucial, \(R_2\) might be less desirable due to higher significance level, but could be more potent if rejecting rare events is essential.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Type I Error
In hypothesis testing, a Type I error occurs when the null hypothesis is rejected even though it is actually true. This kind of error can be visualized as a false positive. For instance, in a trial about a fair coin, if we incorrectly believe the coin is biased due to an unlucky set of tosses, we're making a Type I error. The likelihood of this happening is determined by the significance level of the test, often denoted by \( \alpha \).
When dealing with a binomial distribution, calculating the Type I error involves summing the probabilities at the extremes of the distribution. For example, if we're testing coin fairness through rejection regions \( R_1 \) and \( R_2 \), the Type I error is the probability of observing results in these regions when the coin is fair. To illustrate, the significance level for \( R_1 \) is the sum \( P(X \leq 17) + P(X \geq 33) \), leading to a value around \( 0.0322 \). This error tells us exactly how often we'd expect to mistakenly declare a fair coin as biased if the null hypothesis were true.
Type II Error
A Type II error happens when we fail to reject the null hypothesis despite the alternative hypothesis being true. In simpler terms, it's a false negative.
For example, if a biased coin appears to be fair due to a misleading set of tosses, we experience a Type II error. Its probability is denoted by \( \beta \). This error complements the Power of a test; therefore, minimizing Type II error translates into maximizing the power of a test.
Achieving a low Type II error often requires a larger sample size or a more stringent test setup. The process mainly depends on selecting an appropriate strategy which might include setting a higher significance level (allowing more probability of Type I errors), or increasing the number of trials to amplify anomaly identification. Balancing Type I and II errors is crucial and hinges on the risk and context of the scenario at hand.
Power of a Test
The power of a test, which is calculated as \( 1 - \beta \), measures a test's ability to correctly reject a false null hypothesis. In essence, it's the test’s sensitivity or true positive rate.
For a fair coin test with rejection region \( R_1 \), the power when probability \( p = 0.49 \) comes out to be approximately \( 0.0321 \). This means that if the coin is indeed biased with \( p=0.49 \), there is a 3.21% chance that our test will correctly detect this bias and reject the null hypothesis.
A test is considered to have high power when it effectively discriminates between the null and alternative hypotheses. Factors that can increase the power include increasing sample size, using more extreme threshold values, or refining the experimental design. The goal is to optimize test parameters so that true anomalies are detected more reliably and consistently.
Binomial Distribution
The binomial distribution is used in statistics to model the number of successes in a fixed number of independent Bernoulli trials, each having the same probability of success. It's a cornerstone concept in hypothesis testing for binary outcomes, like yes/no or success/failure scenarios.
In our coin-toss exercise, where a fair coin is tested, the binomial distribution underpins the number of heads observed in 50 tosses. Here, \( n = 50 \) and the probability of getting heads, \( p = 0.5 \). The formula to calculate the probability is \[ P(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k} \]where \( k \) is the number of heads. This equation helps assess how probable a certain number of heads would be, under the assumption that each toss is an independent event.
Utilizing binomial tables or statistical software makes interpreting this distribution straightforward, especially when assessing the likelihood of extremely low or high counts of heads, thus highlighting its utility in crafting rejection regions and analyzing Type I and Type II errors.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

A random sample of 150 recent donations at a blood bank reveals that 82 were type A blood. Does this suggest that the actual percentage of type A donations differs from \(40 \%\), the percentage of the population having type A blood? Carry out a test of the appropriate hypotheses using a significance level of .01. Would your conclusion have been different if a significance level of \(.05\) had been used?

For the following pairs of assertions, indicate which do not comply with our rules for setting up hypotheses and why (the subscripts 1 and 2 differentiate between quantities for two different populations or samples): a. \(H_{0}: \mu=100, H_{\mathrm{a}}: \mu>100\) b. \(H_{0}: \sigma=20, H_{\mathrm{a}}: \sigma \leq 20\) c. \(H_{0}: p \neq .25, H_{\mathrm{a}}: p=.25\) d. \(H_{0}: \mu_{1}-\mu_{2}=25, H_{\mathrm{a}}: \mu_{1}-\mu_{2}>100\) e. \(H_{0}: S_{1}^{2}=S_{2}^{2}, H_{a}: S_{1}^{2} \neq S_{2}^{2}\) f. \(H_{0}: \mu=120, H_{\mathrm{a}}: \mu=150\) g. \(H_{0}: \sigma_{1} / \sigma_{2}=1, H_{\mathrm{a}}: \sigma_{1} / \sigma_{2} \neq 1\) h. \(H_{0}: p_{1}-p_{2}=-.1, H_{\mathrm{a}}: p_{1}-p_{2}<-.1\)

For a fixed alternative value \(\mu^{\prime}\), show that \(\beta\left(\mu^{\prime}\right) \rightarrow 0\) as \(n \rightarrow \infty\) for either a one-tailed or a two-tailed \(z\) test in the case of a normal population distribution with known \(\sigma\).

One method for straightening wire before coiling it to make a spring is called "roller straightening." The article "The Effect of Roller and Spinner Wire Straightening on Coiling Performance and Wire Properties" (Springs, 1987: 27-28) reports on the tensile properties of wire. Suppose a sample of 16 wires is selected and each is tested to determine tensile strength \(\left(\mathrm{N} / \mathrm{mm}^{2}\right)\). The resulting sample mean and standard deviation are 2160 and 30 , respectively. a. The mean tensile strength for springs made using spinner straightening is \(2150 \mathrm{~N} / \mathrm{mm}^{2}\). What hypotheses should be tested to determine whether the mean tensile strength for the roller method exceeds 2150 ? b. Assuming that the tensile strength distribution is approximately normal, what test statistic would you use to test the hypotheses in part (a)? c. What is the value of the test statistic for this data? d. What is the \(P\)-value for the value of the test statistic computed in part (c)?

Give as much information as you can about the \(P\)-value of a \(t\) test in each of the following situations: a. Upper-tailed test, \(\mathrm{df}=8, t=2.0\) b. Lower-tailed test, \(\mathrm{df}=11, t=-2.4\) c. Two-tailed test, \(\mathrm{df}=15, t=-1.6\) d. Upper-tailed test, df \(=19, t=-.4\) e. Upper-tailed test, df \(=5, t=5.0\) f. Two-tailed test, df \(=40, t=-4.8\)

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