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The article "Modeling Sediment and Water Column Interactions for Hydrophobic Pollutants" (Water Res., 1984: 1169-1174) suggests the uniform distribution on the interval \((7.5,20)\) as a model for depth \((\mathrm{cm})\) of the bioturbation layer in sediment in a certain region. a. What are the mean and variance of depth? b. What is the cdf of depth? c. What is the probability that observed depth is at most 10? Between 10 and 15 ? d. What is the probability that the observed depth is within 1 standard deviation of the mean value? Within 2 standard deviations?

Short Answer

Expert verified
Mean is 13.75 and variance is 13.02. CDF is defined as per uniform distribution. Probabilities: P(X≤10)=0.2, 10<X≤15=0.4. Within 1 SD: 0.5736, within 2 SDs: 1.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Uniform Distribution

In a uniform distribution on the interval \((a, b)\), every value within the interval has an equal probability of occurring. Here, we are given \(a = 7.5\) and \(b = 20\). The random variable representing depth, say \(X\), follows a uniform distribution \(X \sim U(7.5, 20)\).
02

Calculating the Mean and Variance

For a uniform distribution \(U(a, b)\), the mean \(\mu\) is given by \(\mu = \frac{a + b}{2}\), and the variance \(\sigma^2\) is \(\sigma^2 = \frac{(b-a)^2}{12}\). Substituting the given values:\[\mu = \frac{7.5 + 20}{2} = 13.75\]\[\sigma^2 = \frac{(20 - 7.5)^2}{12} = \frac{12.5^2}{12} = 13.02\]
03

Deriving the Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF)

The CDF \(F(x)\) for a uniform distribution on \((a, b)\) is defined as \[F(x) = \begin{cases} 0, & x < a \\frac{x-a}{b-a}, & a \leq x \leq b \1, & x > b \end{cases}\]Applying \(a = 7.5\), \(b = 20\), the CDF becomes:\[F(x) = \begin{cases} 0, & x < 7.5 \\frac{x-7.5}{12.5}, & 7.5 \leq x \leq 20 \1, & x > 20 \end{cases}\]
04

Calculating Specific Probabilities

To find the probability that \(X\leq10\), use CDF:\[P(X \leq 10) = F(10) = \frac{10 - 7.5}{12.5} = 0.2\]For \(10 < X \leq 15\), \[P(10 < X \leq 15) = F(15) - F(10) = \left(\frac{15 - 7.5}{12.5}\right) - 0.2 = 0.6 - 0.2 = 0.4\]
05

Probability Within Standard Deviations

Use the mean \(13.75\) and standard deviation \(\sigma = \sqrt{13.02} \approx 3.61\).For one standard deviation, the interval is \((\mu - \sigma, \mu + \sigma) = (13.75 - 3.61, 13.75 + 3.61) = (10.14, 17.36)\):\[P(10.14 < X < 17.36) = F(17.36) - F(10.14) = 0.7848 - 0.2112 = 0.5736\]For two standard deviations, the interval is \((\mu - 2\sigma, \mu + 2\sigma) = (13.75 - 2\times 3.61, 13.75 + 2\times 3.61) = (6.53, 20.97)\):Since 6.53 < 7.5, we adjust to the interval \((7.5, 20)\):\[P(7.5 < X < 20) = F(20) - F(7.5) = 1 - 0 = 1\]

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Mean and Variance
In statistics, the mean is the average value of a data set, providing a central point around which other data points distribute. For a uniform distribution on an interval \(a, b\), calculating the mean involves a simple formula: \( \mu = \frac{a + b}{2} \). This formula finds the midpoint of the interval, representing the "center" of the distribution.
In this exercise, with the interval \(7.5, 20\), the mean becomes \( \mu = \frac{7.5 + 20}{2} = 13.75 \).

On the other hand, the variance measures how much the data varies around the mean. For a uniform distribution, the variance \(\sigma^2\) is given by: \(\sigma^2 = \frac{(b-a)^2}{12}\). It reflects the spread of the data points; a higher variance means data points are more spread out from the mean.
Here, the variance is computed as: \( \sigma^2 = \frac{(20 - 7.5)^2}{12} = 13.02\). This indicates how the depths within the interval are distributed around the average depth of 13.75 cm.
Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF)
The Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) helps us understand how probabilities accumulate over a range of values in a distribution. For a uniform distribution \(U(a, b)\), the CDF is expressed mathematically as a piecewise function:
  • \(F(x) = 0, \text{ for } x < a\)
  • \(F(x) = \frac{x-a}{b-a}, \text{ for } a \leq x \leq b\)
  • \(F(x) = 1, \text{ for } x > b\)
This function helps in understanding the probability that the variable, say depth \(X\), will take a value less than or equal to \(x\).
Applying this to our interval \(\[7.5, 20\]\), the CDF becomes:
  • \(F(x) = 0, \text{ when } x < 7.5\)
  • \(F(x) = \frac{x-7.5}{12.5}, \text{ when } 7.5 \leq x \leq 20\)
  • \(F(x) = 1, \text{ when } x > 20\)
The CDF provides a simple yet powerful tool for determining probabilities within specified intervals.
Probability Calculations
Probability calculations in statistics help us quantify the likelihood of a specific outcome in an experiment. Utilizing the cumulative distribution function (CDF), we can determine probabilities for a range of values within a uniform distribution.
For example, to calculate the probability of the depth being at most 10cm, evaluate the CDF at 10: \(P(X \leq 10) = F(10) = \frac{10-7.5}{12.5} = 0.2\).

To find the probability of depth between 10 and 15cm, we need the difference in CDF values: \(P(10 < X \leq 15) = F(15) - F(10) = 0.4\). This is helpful for gauging likelihoods within specific ranges.

Lastly, evaluating probabilities within standard deviations involves using both mean and variance. For one standard deviation, the depth range covers \(10.14\) to \(17.36\) cm. The probability is \(P(10.14 < X < 17.36) = 0.5736\). Similarly, the two standard deviation range covers from \(7.5\) to \(20\) cm, resulting in a probability of \(1\) or certainty that a depth falls within this range. These calculations give insights into how often certain conditions are met.

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