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Show that \(E(X)=n p\) when \(X\) is a binomial random variable. [Hint: First express \(E(X)\) as a sum with lower limit \(x=1\). Then factor out \(n p\), let \(y=x-1\) so that the remaining sum is from \(y=0\) to \(y=n-1\), and show that it equals 1.]

Short Answer

Expert verified
For a binomial random variable \( X \), the expected value \( E(X) = np \).

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Binomial Random Variable

A binomial random variable \( X \) represents the number of successes in \( n \) independent Bernoulli trials, each with probability \( p \) of success.
02

Define the Expected Value of X

The expected value \( E(X) \) of a binomial random variable is given by the sum:\[ E(X) = \sum_{x=0}^{n} x \binom{n}{x} p^x (1-p)^{n-x}. \]
03

Change the Index of Summation

We rewrite \( E(X) \) starting the summation from \( x=1 \) since the term for \( x=0 \) contributes nothing:\[ E(X) = \sum_{x=1}^{n} x \binom{n}{x} p^x (1-p)^{n-x}. \]
04

Factor Out n*p

Notice that we can factor out \( n p \) because of the relationship \( \binom{n}{x} = \frac{n}{x} \binom{n-1}{x-1} \). Thus, rewrite the sum:\[ E(X) = np \sum_{x=1}^{n} \binom{n-1}{x-1} p^{x-1} (1-p)^{n-x}. \]
05

Change the Variable from x to y

Let \( y = x-1 \). Then the sum becomes:\[ \sum_{y=0}^{n-1} \binom{n-1}{y} p^y (1-p)^{(n-1)-y}. \]
06

Recognize the Binomial Theorem

The expression\[ \sum_{y=0}^{n-1} \binom{n-1}{y} p^y (1-p)^{(n-1)-y} \]is a binomial expansion, which equals \( (p + (1-p))^{n-1} = 1^{n-1} = 1 \).
07

Conclude the Derivation

Since the sum equals \( 1 \), we have shown that:\[ E(X) = np \times 1 = np. \]

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Expected Value
The expected value, often represented as \( E(X) \), is a fundamental concept in probability and statistics. It gives us the average or mean value we expect when a random experiment or process is repeated many times. For binomial random variables, which are tied to situations with only two possible outcomes (like flip heads or tails), the expected value formula simplifies to \( np \). This means that if you perform \( n \) independent trials, each with a success probability of \( p \), you can expect \( np \) successes on average.

The formula for expected value in a binomial distribution comes from summing the products of each outcome (labeled as \( x \)) times the probability of that outcome. This can be written as:

  • \( E(X) = \sum_{x=0}^{n} x \binom{n}{x} p^x (1-p)^{n-x} \)
In the initial steps, we factored out \( np \) which lets us focus on the core portion of the equation. By recognizing and transforming the remaining equation using substitutions and binomial theory, the entire sum simplifies to 1, confirming that \( E(X) = np \), thus demonstrating the predictability of the binomial model.
Binomial Coefficient
The binomial coefficient, often encountered as \( \binom{n}{x} \), is a crucial mathematical tool. It tells us how many different ways we can choose \( x \) successes in \( n \) trials without caring about the order. Essentially, it's the building block for determining probabilities in binomial distributions.

To calculate a binomial coefficient, use the formula:

  • \( \binom{n}{x} = \frac{n!}{x!(n-x)!} \)
This formula might seem complex at first, but it boils down to a simple counting problem. How many different ways can we form a group of \( x \) items from \( n \) items, where the order doesn't matter? As we solve problems like determining expected values, the binomial coefficient helps us break down and calculate complex probability expressions.

In the context of deriving the expected value, such coefficients play a role in structuring the sum that defines \( E(X) \). They directly link the problem to combinations of successes and failures, making them indispensable in binomial distributions.
Bernoulli Trials
Bernoulli trials are the backbone of understanding binomial distributions. Named after the Swiss mathematician Jacob Bernoulli, these trials highlight situations with exactly two outcomes, usually termed 'success' and 'failure'.

Key characteristics of Bernoulli trials include:
  • Each trial is independent of others.
  • The probability of success remains constant across trials.
  • Trials have only two possible outcomes: success or failure.
When you run several Bernoulli trials in sequence, you essentially engage in a binomial experiment. For example, flipping a coin is a Bernoulli trial, with a \( 50\% \) chance of landing heads (success) and tails (failure).

In the given exercise, these trials inform the core structure of the binomial distribution \( X \). Understanding how each trial acts independently and contributes toward the expected number of successes helps in unraveling the broader distribution and in making accurate predictions through binomial models.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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