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A study seeks to compare hospitals based on the performance of their intensive care units. The dependent variable is the mortality ratio, the ratio of the number of deaths over the predicted number of deaths based on the condition of the patients. The comparison will be between hospitals with nurse staffing problems and hospitals without such problems. Assume, based on past experience, that the standard deviation of the mortality ratio will be around \(.2\) in both types of hospital. How many of each type of hospital should be included in the study in order to have both the type I and type II error probabilities be \(.05\), if the true difference of mean mortality ratio for the two types of hospital is .2? If we conclude that hospitals with nurse staffing problems have a higher mortality ratio, does this imply a causal relationship? Explain.

Short Answer

Expert verified
Each group needs 13 hospitals. Higher mortality doesn't imply causation.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Hypotheses

First, define the null and alternative hypotheses. The null hypothesis \( H_0 \) is that there is no difference in the mean mortality ratios between hospitals with and without nurse staffing problems. The alternative hypothesis \( H_a \) is that there is a difference of \( 0.2 \) in the mean mortality ratios between these two groups of hospitals.
02

Determine the Effect Size

The effect size, which is the difference in means the study aims to detect, is given as \( 0.2 \). Since both groups have the same standard deviation, the standardized effect size (Cohen's d) is \( \frac{0.2}{0.2} = 1 \).
03

Select Significance Level and Power

The problem states that both type I (\( \alpha \)) and type II (\( \beta \)) error probabilities should be \( 0.05 \). This usually implies a significance level of \( \alpha = 0.05 \) and power of \( 1 - \beta = 0.95 \).
04

Use Sample Size Formula for t-Test

For an independent samples t-test, the sample size \( n \) for each group can be calculated using the formula: \[ n = \left( \frac{{(Z_{1-\alpha/2} + Z_{1-\beta}) \cdot \sigma}}{{\text{Effect Size}}} \right)^2 \] where \( \sigma = 0.2 \), \( Z_{1-\alpha/2} = 1.96 \) and \( Z_{1-\beta} = 1.645 \) for \( 95\% \) confidence and power.
05

Plug in Values and Solve

Substitute the values into the formula: \[ n = \left( \frac{{(1.96 + 1.645) \cdot 0.2}}{0.2} \right)^2 = \left(3.605\right)^2 \approx 12.99 \] So, at least 13 hospitals are needed for each group.
06

Assess Causal Implications

Correlation does not imply causation. Finding that hospitals with nurse staffing problems have a higher mortality ratio does not mean that the staffing issues directly cause higher mortality; other factors could be responsible.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Type I Error
In hypothesis testing, a Type I error is the incorrect rejection of a true null hypothesis. It is sometimes called a "false positive" or "alpha error." Imagine you are in a scenario where you conclude that the mean mortality ratio differs between hospitals with and without nurse staffing problems, even though in reality, there is no difference. This would be a Type I error. The significance level (\( \alpha \)) denotes the probability of this error occurring. If \( \alpha = 0.05 \), it implies a 5% risk of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is actually true. Therefore, setting this level is a trade-off: lower \( \alpha \) means fewer Type I errors, but this might increase Type II errors. For the given study, having a Type I error probability of 0.05 is fairly typical, representing a balance in risk for most scientific studies. Remember, reducing a Type I error does not inherently solve for causation, but it ensures results are not due to chance.
Type II Error
A Type II error occurs when the null hypothesis is not rejected when it is false; essentially, it is a missed detection of an effect or difference, also known as a "false negative." In the hospital study, suppose the hospitals with nurse staffing problems do have higher mortality rates, yet the study fails to recognize this difference. That would be a Type II error. The power of a test, defined as \(1 - \beta\), measures the test's ability to detect an effect. Here, \( \beta = 0.05 \), equating to a power of \(0.95\). This high power level means there's a low chance of a Type II error, making the study highly reliable in detecting actual differences when they exist. Minimizing \( \beta \) ensures fewer missed findings, but it can be challenging without a large enough sample size. That's why accurate calculations and adequate sample sizes are critical.
Sample Size Calculation
Determining the correct sample size is crucial to ensure that both Type I and Type II errors remain at acceptable levels. In this exercise, we used the t-test formula for independent samples to find the sample size required for each hospital group:\[ n = \left( \frac{{(Z_{1-\alpha/2} + Z_{1-\beta}) \cdot \sigma}}{{\text{Effect Size}}} \right)^2 \]The variables were:
  • \( Z_{1-\alpha/2} = 1.96 \) for a 95% confidence level
  • \( Z_{1-\beta} = 1.645 \) for a 95% power level
  • \( \sigma = 0.2 \) as the standard deviation
Plugging these numbers into our formula gave a sample size (\( n \approx 13 \)) for each group. This means 13 hospitals in each category are needed to meet the study's criteria, thus validating any findings on differences in mortality ratios based on nurse staffing issues.A thorough sample size calculation provides robust results, reducing the risk of errors and improving the study's overall credibility.

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