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Suppose that you want to estimate the mean pH of rainfalls in an area that suffers from heavy pollution due to the discharge of smoke from a power plant. Assume that \(\sigma\) is in the neighborhood of \(.5 \mathrm{pH}\) and that you want your estimate to lie within. 1 of \(\mu\) with probability near. 95 Approximately how many rainfalls must be included in your sample (one pH reading per rainfall)? Would it be valid to select all of your water specimens from a single rainfall? Explain.

Short Answer

Expert verified
You need about 97 rainfalls. No, sampling from a single rainfall would not be valid due to potential bias.

Step by step solution

01

Identify Formula for Sample Size

To determine the number of samples needed to estimate the mean with a specific confidence level and margin of error, we use the formula for sample size: \[ n = \left( \frac{Z \sigma}{E} \right)^2 \]where \(Z\) is the Z-value for the desired confidence interval, \(\sigma\) is the standard deviation, and \(E\) is the margin of error.
02

Determine Z-Value for 95% Confidence

For a 95% confidence level, the Z-value is approximately 1.96. This value is derived from the standard normal distribution corresponding to a cumulative probability of 0.975 (since we need to account for both tails of the distribution).
03

Define Given Variables

The standard deviation \(\sigma\) is given as 0.5 pH. The margin of error \(E\) is specified as 0.1 pH. These are the inputs needed to utilize the sample size formula.
04

Calculate Required Sample Size

Substitute the known values into the sample size formula:\[ n = \left( \frac{1.96 \times 0.5}{0.1} \right)^2 = \left( \frac{0.98}{0.1} \right)^2 = (9.8)^2 = 96.04 \]Since the sample size must be a whole number, we round up to ensure the desired confidence level is achieved. Therefore, \(n = 97\) rainfalls must be included in the sample.
05

Validity of Single Rainfall Source

Selecting all samples from a single rainfall would not provide a representative sample of the area's rainfall pH levels. Each rainfall might have different pH levels due to varying environmental conditions, and a single rainfall could lead to biased results. Hence, it is not valid to choose samples from only one rainfall event.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Confidence Interval
Understanding the concept of a confidence interval is crucial when estimating the mean of a population, such as the pH levels of rainfall. A confidence interval provides a range of values in which the true population parameter, like the mean pH, is expected to lie. It is defined by two limits with a degree of confidence, often expressed as a percentage. For example, in the exercise, a 95% confidence interval implies that if we were to repeat the study many times, 95% of the intervals would contain the true mean pH value. This confidence level gives an indication of the reliability of the estimate and how sure you can be about the boundaries set by the interval. To set this interval, standard deviation, margin of error, and the sample size all play significant roles.
Standard Deviation
The standard deviation (\( \sigma \)) is a measure of how spread out the numbers in a data set are. For this exercise, the given standard deviation is 0.5 pH, representing the typical deviation of rainfall pH from the mean pH.A lower standard deviation means the data points are close to the mean, indicating consistent pH readings across different rainfalls. Conversely, a higher standard deviation suggests more variability in pH levels. Understanding this concept helps in determining how accurately we can estimate the population parameter with the sample data available. The standard deviation is directly involved in the calculation of sample size, as it helps determine how many samples are needed to achieve a specific margin of error with a particular level of confidence.
Margin of Error
The margin of error (\( E \)) represents how close we expect our sample mean to be to the true population mean, within the level of confidence chosen. In the problem provided, this margin is set at 0.1 pH.This value shows the range on either side of the sample mean that the true population mean is likely to fall into. The smaller the margin of error, the more precise the estimate is considered to be. However, achieving a smaller margin of error usually requires a larger sample size, which might increase the cost or time needed for data collection. Choosing an appropriate margin of error involves balancing the need for precision against practical constraints.
Representative Sample
A representative sample is vital to make accurate inferences about a population. It ensures that all subsets of the population are proportionately included in the sample, reflecting the diversity of the population characteristics. In the exercise about rainfalls, the question highlights the importance of not selecting all samples from a single rainfall. Doing so would fail to capture the variability in pH levels that might arise due to different environmental conditions. A non-representative sample could lead to bias and inaccurate estimates of the mean pH. Thus, samples must be chosen thoughtfully across various rain events to truly reflect the population characteristics and provide reliable results.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

The length of time between billing and receipt of payment was recorded for a random sample of 100 of a certified public accountant (CPA) firm's clients. The sample mean and standard deviation for the 100 accounts were 39.1 days and 17.3 days, respectively. Find a \(90 \%\) confidence interval for the mean time between billing and receipt of payment for all of the CPA firm's accounts. Interpret the interval.

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