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91Ó°ÊÓ

The employees of a firm that manufactures insulation are being tested for indications of asbestos in their lungs. The firm is requested to send three employees who have positive indications of asbestos on to a medical center for further testing. If \(40 \%\) of the employees have positive indications of asbestos in their lungs, find the probability that ten employees must be tested in order to find three positives.

Short Answer

Expert verified
Probability is approximately 0.0645.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Problem

This problem is a classic binomial distribution scenario where the 'success' is finding an employee with a positive indication of asbestos, and the goal is to find three such successes within ten trials (employees).
02

Identify Given Values and Determine Type of Distribution

The probability of an employee having positive indications, or 'success', is given as \( p = 0.4 \). The required number of successes, \( k \), is 3. We want the probability that 10 employees must be tested to achieve this. Since the number of trials is fixed at 10 and we're looking for a particular number of successes (3), we employ a Negative Binomial Distribution.
03

Apply Negative Binomial Distribution Formula

The Negative Binomial Distribution formula for finding the probability of \(k\) successes in \(n\) trials is \( P(X = k) = \binom{n-1}{k-1} \cdot p^k \cdot (1 - p)^{n-k} \). Here, \( n = 10 \), \( k = 3 \), and \( p = 0.4 \).
04

Calculate the Probability Using Values

Substitute the values into the negative binomial formula: \[ P(X = 3) = \binom{9}{2} \times (0.4)^3 \times (0.6)^7 \]. Calculate \( \binom{9}{2} = 36\). Then compute the probability: \[ P(X = 3) = 36 \times (0.064) \times (0.0279936) = 0.06445792 \].
05

Sum Up the Results

After calculating the expression, the probability that ten employees must be tested to find exactly three with positive indications is approximately 0.0645.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Binomial Distribution
The binomial distribution is a fundamental probability distribution used in statistics that describes the number of successes in a fixed number of independent yes/no experiments. Each experiment is called a trial and results in either success or failure. For instance, if you are flipping a fair coin, each flip is a trial, and landing on heads could be considered a success. The binomial distribution is characterized by two parameters: the number of trials \( n \) and the probability of success on each trial \( p \).
In the given problem, the trials involve testing employees of a firm for asbestos. Each test is a trial, and finding an indication of asbestos is a success. When using the binomial distribution, the goal is often to determine the probability of a certain number of successes across all trials. However, in scenarios where the total number of trials is not fixed and you are aiming for a specific number of successes, the negative binomial distribution is sometimes more appropriate. Thus, understanding the binomial distribution helps lay the foundation for more complex distributions like the negative binomial used in this exercise.
Probability
Probability is the measure of the likelihood that an event will occur. It ranges from 0 to 1, where 0 indicates the event cannot happen, and 1 means that the event is certain to happen. When dealing with probability in context of the negative binomial distribution, you're often interested in finding how likely it is to achieve a certain number of successes in a series of trials.
For example, in our example, the probability of success (finding an employee with asbestos) per trial is 0.4, or 40%. This means for each employee tested, there's a 40% chance they will test positive for asbestos. These probabilities are crucial inputs into the negative binomial distribution formula, allowing us to derive the probability that exactly three positive cases occur within a sample of ten employees. Such calculation can be critical in fields like medical testing, where understanding the risk and occurrence of certain conditions directly impacts decision-making and intervention strategies.
Successes in Trials
The concept of "successes in trials" is central to both the binomial and negative binomial distributions. A success in a trial is simply achieving the desired outcome - for example, flipping a coin and it landing on heads, or, as in the exercise, finding asbestos in an employee's lungs. When multiple trials are involved, the focus may shift to analyzing how many successes are achieved over the course of these trials.
In the context of the negative binomial distribution, the number of successes is pre-decided, and the interest lies in figuring out how many trials are necessary to reach these successes. This is slightly different from the regular binomial distribution, where you have a set number of trials and look to measure the probability of achieving a specific number of successes within those trials. Hence, in the exercise given, the task was to determine the probability of testing exactly ten employees to find three positives. This involves first understanding the probability per trial, the number of successes sought after, and then deploying these to apply the negative binomial distribution formula to get the solution.

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