Chapter 3: Problem 80
Two people took turns tossing a fair die until one of them tossed a \(6 .\) Person A tossed first, \(\mathrm{B}\) second, A third, and so on. Given that person B threw the first \(6,\) what is the probability that \(\mathrm{B}\) obtained the first 6 on her second toss (that is, on the fourth toss overall)?
Short Answer
Expert verified
The probability is \( \frac{125}{1296} \).
Step by step solution
01
Understand the Problem
First, we need to calculate the probability that Person B rolls a 6 for the first time on the fourth roll overall. This means that rolls 1, 2, and 3 are not 6s, and roll 4 is a 6.
02
Determine Probabilities for Individual Events
The probability that a single roll of a fair die is not a 6 is \( \frac{5}{6} \). Conversely, the probability that a roll of the die is a 6 is \( \frac{1}{6} \).
03
Calculate Probability of the First Three Rolls
Each of the first three rolls must not be a 6. Since the rolls are independent, the probability of the first three rolls being not 6 is: \( \left( \frac{5}{6} \right)^3 = \frac{125}{216} \).
04
Calculate Probability of the Fourth Roll Being a 6
The fourth roll, which is a roll by Person B, must be a 6. So, the probability is \( \frac{1}{6} \).
05
Combine the Probabilities
The probability that Person B rolls the first 6 on the fourth roll is the product of the probabilities calculated in Steps 3 and 4: \( \frac{125}{216} \times \frac{1}{6} = \frac{125}{1296} \).
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Key Concepts
These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.
Fair Die Probability
Rolling a fair die means each face (or side) of the die has an equal chance of landing face up. A standard six-sided fair die has numbers from 1 to 6, and each number is just as likely to appear as any other. This is because a fair die is unbiased, meaning there are no adjustments or weights that could favor one outcome.
When you roll a fair die, the probability of any specific number appearing, such as a 6, is calculated as the ratio of favorable outcomes (the single side showing a 6) to the total number of outcomes (all 6 sides). Thus, the probability of rolling a 6 is \( \frac{1}{6} \). Similarly, the probability of not rolling a 6 (getting either 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5) is \( \frac{5}{6} \).
When you roll a fair die, the probability of any specific number appearing, such as a 6, is calculated as the ratio of favorable outcomes (the single side showing a 6) to the total number of outcomes (all 6 sides). Thus, the probability of rolling a 6 is \( \frac{1}{6} \). Similarly, the probability of not rolling a 6 (getting either 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5) is \( \frac{5}{6} \).
- Every side has a cooperative chance.
- Total possible outcomes when rolling once: 6.
- Probability of each number being rolled: \( \frac{1}{6} \).
Independent Events
In probability theory, an event is said to be independent if the outcome of one event does not affect the outcome of another. This is a key concept, especially when dealing with games of chance like dice rolls, where each roll is independent.
Consider rolling a fair die multiple times. The result of one roll does not influence the result of any subsequent rolls. This means that the probability of rolling a 6 on your next roll remains \( \frac{1}{6} \), whether or not you rolled a 6 previously.
This consistency is why independent event calculations are foundational in probability theory.
Consider rolling a fair die multiple times. The result of one roll does not influence the result of any subsequent rolls. This means that the probability of rolling a 6 on your next roll remains \( \frac{1}{6} \), whether or not you rolled a 6 previously.
- No past roll affects future rolls.
- The probability remains constant.
This consistency is why independent event calculations are foundational in probability theory.
Sequential Probability
Sequential probability involves determining the likelihood of a series of events happening one after the other. In this context, it often means calculating the probability of specific outcomes occurring in a particular order.
Consider the exercise where each person takes turns rolling a die, trying to be the first to roll a 6. When we calculate the probability of Person B throwing the first 6 on her second throw (the fourth roll overall), we look at the sequence: three rolls that aren't 6, followed by a roll that is 6.
The key steps to solving such problems involve:
So, the calculation for the first three rolls not being a 6 is \( \left( \frac{5}{6} \right)^3 \), and the probability of the fourth roll being a 6 is \( \frac{1}{6} \). Therefore, multiplying these gives us the probability of the sequence we wanted: \( \frac{125}{1296} \).
This method systematically determines the chance of a specific order of events unfolding, reflecting the nature of sequential probability.
Consider the exercise where each person takes turns rolling a die, trying to be the first to roll a 6. When we calculate the probability of Person B throwing the first 6 on her second throw (the fourth roll overall), we look at the sequence: three rolls that aren't 6, followed by a roll that is 6.
The key steps to solving such problems involve:
- Identifying the required sequence of outcomes for the specific scenario.
- Calculating the probability of each event occurring in the desired order.
- Combining these probabilities to find the overall sequence probability.
So, the calculation for the first three rolls not being a 6 is \( \left( \frac{5}{6} \right)^3 \), and the probability of the fourth roll being a 6 is \( \frac{1}{6} \). Therefore, multiplying these gives us the probability of the sequence we wanted: \( \frac{125}{1296} \).
This method systematically determines the chance of a specific order of events unfolding, reflecting the nature of sequential probability.