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The population of the world in 1987 was 5 billion and the annual growth rate was estimated at 2 percent per year. Assuming that the world population follows an exponential growth model, find the projected world population in 2015 .

Short Answer

Expert verified
The projected world population in 2015 is approximately 8.75 billion.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding Exponential Growth

Exponential growth can be modeled using the formula: \[ P(t) = P_0 \cdot e^{rt} \]where \( P(t) \) is the population at year \( t \), \( P_0 \) is the initial population, \( r \) is the growth rate, and \( t \) is the time in years since the initial measurement.
02

Identifying Given Values

From the problem, we know the initial population \( P_0 = 5 \) billion (in 1987), the growth rate \( r = 0.02 \) (2 percent per year), and we want to find the population in 2015. Therefore, \( t = 2015 - 1987 = 28 \) years.
03

Applying the Exponential Growth Formula

Substitute the known values into the exponential growth formula:\[ P(28) = 5 \cdot e^{0.02 \times 28} \]
04

Calculating the Exponent

Calculate the value of the exponent:\( 0.02 \times 28 = 0.56 \).
05

Computing the Exponential

Substitute 0.56 into the exponential function \( e^{0.56} \). The approximate value is \( e^{0.56} \approx 1.75 \).
06

Calculating Projected Population

Now, calculate \( P(28) = 5 \times 1.75 = 8.75 \). Thus, the projected world population in 2015 is approximately 8.75 billion.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Population Growth
Population growth is a fundamental concept in biology and environmental science. It refers to the change in the number of individuals within a population over time. In real-world situations, population growth can be influenced by various factors, such as birth rates, death rates, immigration, and emigration.

Here are a few key points about population growth to consider:
  • **Natural Increase:** This is typically calculated as the difference between birth rates and death rates. A positive natural increase means the population is growing, while a negative one indicates a decline.
  • **Carrying Capacity:** This is the maximum number of individuals that an environment can support sustainably. Population growth tends to slow down as it approaches carrying capacity due to resource limitations.
  • **Growth Rate:** This can be linear or exponential, with exponential growth indicating a rapid increase, often seen when resources are abundant and environmental conditions are ideal.
Understanding population growth is crucial for planning resource allocation, workforce demands, and environmental conservation efforts. It also helps in predicting future demographic changes and potential challenges.
Mathematical Modeling
Mathematical modeling is a powerful tool used for representing real-world phenomena in mathematical terms. Through models, we can simulate, analyze, and predict behaviors and trends in various fields such as economics, engineering, and biology.

In the context of population growth, mathematical modeling typically involves formulas that account for variables such as initial population, growth rate, and time. A common model used for population growth is the exponential growth model, which is ideally suited for populations increasing rapidly over time without constraints.

**Benefits of Mathematical Modeling:**
  • **Prediction:** Models enable us to predict future population sizes based on current data and growth rates.
  • **Understanding Trends:** By analyzing model outputs, we can identify patterns and trends in population dynamics.
  • **Decision-Making:** Models provide quantitative data that facilitate informed decision-making in policies related to urban planning, resource management, and environmental protection.
Mathematical models are integral in learning how different factors influence population growth and can be adapted or refined as new data becomes available.
Exponential Functions
Exponential functions are mathematical expressions of the form \( y = a \cdot e^{bx} \), where \( a \) and \( b \) are constants, and \( e \) is Euler's number (approximately 2.718). These functions are characterized by their rapid growth rate, making them suitable for modeling scenarios like population growth.

In exponential growth, the rate of increase is proportional to the current value, leading to faster change as the function progresses. This is expressed in the exponential growth formula: \( P(t) = P_0 \cdot e^{rt} \), where:
  • \( P(t) \) is the population at time \( t \)
  • \( P_0 \) is the initial population
  • \( r \) is the growth rate
  • \( t \) is the time elapsed since the initial measurement
Exponential functions demonstrate the concept of compounding, where growth accumulates continuously over time.

This continuous compounding makes exponential functions especially powerful in representing real-world phenomena where growth occurs in an accelerating manner. Understanding these functions helps students grasp how small differences in growth rates or initial conditions can lead to significant variations in outcomes over time.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Suppose that you have a bowl of 500 M\&M candies, and each day you eat \(1 / 4\) of the candies you have. Is the number of candies left changing linearly or exponentially? Write an equation to model the number of candies left after \(n\) days.

Recursive equations can be very handy for modeling complicated situations for which explicit equations would be hard to interpret. As an example, consider a lake in which 2000 fish currently reside. The fish population grows by \(10 \%\) each year, but every year 100 fish are harvested from the lake by people fishing. a. Write a recursive equation for the number of fish in the lake after \(n\) years. b. Calculate the population after 1 and 2 years. Does the population appear to be increasing or decreasing? c. What is the maximum number of fish that could be harvested each year without causing the fish population to decrease in the long run?

A new truck costs \(\$ 32,000\). The car's value will depreciate over time, which means it will lose value. For tax purposes, depreciation is usually calculated linearly. If the truck is worth \(\$ 24,500\) after three years, write an explicit formula for the value of the car after \(n\) years.

One hundred trout are seeded into a lake. Absent constraint, their population will grow by \(70 \%\) a year. The lake can sustain a maximum of 2000 trout. Using the logistic growth model, a. Write a recursive formula for the number of trout b. Calculate the number of trout after 1 year and after 2 years.

Ten blackberry plants started growing in my yard. Absent constraint, blackberries will spread by \(200 \%\) a month. My yard can only sustain about 50 plants. Using the logistic growth model, a. Write a recursive formula for the number of blackberry plants in my yard b. Calculate the number of plants after \(1,2,\) and 3 months

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