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Let \(\pi_{i}\) denote the long-run proportion of time a given irreducible Markov chain is in state \(i\). (a) Explain why \(\pi_{i}\) is also the proportion of transitions that are into state \(i\) as well as being the proportion of transitions that are from state \(i\). (b) \(\pi_{i} P_{i j}\) represents the proportion of transitions that satisfy what property? (c) \(\sum_{i} \pi_{i} P_{i j}\) represent the proportion of transitions that satisfy what property? (d) Using the preceding explain why $$ \pi_{j}=\sum_{i} \pi_{i} P_{i j} $$

Short Answer

Expert verified
The long-run proportion of time, π_i, represents the fraction of time spent in state i in the long run. It can be thought of as the steady-state probability of being in state i. Both the proportion of transitions into state i and the proportion of transitions from state i will be equal to π_i in the long run. The term π_i P_ij represents the fraction of transitions from state i to state j in the long run. The term ∑_i (π_i P_ij) is the long-run proportion of transitions that end up in state j. Since the long-run proportions of transitions into state j must be equal to the long-run proportions of transitions that end up in state j, the balance condition equation is: \[ \pi_{j}=\sum_{i} \pi_{i} P_{i j} \]

Step by step solution

01

(a) Proportion of transitions

The long-run proportion of time π_i represents the fraction of time the Markov chain spends in state i in the long run. It can be thought of as the steady-state probability of being in state i. Since the Markov chain keeps transitioning between states, this proportion π_i essentially represents the probability of being in state i at any given time in the long run. Now, since the chain is spending a proportion π_i of its time in state i, it naturally implies that both the proportion of transitions into state i and the proportion of transitions from state i will be same as π_i in the long run. This occurs in order to maintain that equilibrium state (steady-state) in which the proportion of time in state i remains constant over time.
02

(b) Proportion of transitions and the property

The term π_i P_ij represents the proportion of transitions that have two specific properties: the chain being in state i and transitioning from state i to state j. In other words, this term represents the fraction of transitions in the Markov chain where the chain transits from state i to state j in the long run.
03

(c) Proportion of transitions and the property

The term ∑_i (π_i P_ij) sums up the product of π_i and P_ij over all states i. This represents the proportion of transitions in the Markov chain where the chain ends up in state j, regardless of which state it started from. In other words, ∑_i (π_i P_ij) is the long-run proportion of transitions that end up in state j.
04

(d) Deriving the equation

Since we know that the long-run proportion of transitions into state j (π_j) must be equal to the long-run proportion of transitions that end up in state j (∑_i (π_i P_ij)), we can write the equation as: \[ \pi_{j}=\sum_{i} \pi_{i} P_{i j} \] This equation represents the balance condition in a Markov chain, which helps in finding the steady-state distribution of the states.

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