/*! This file is auto-generated */ .wp-block-button__link{color:#fff;background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;text-decoration:none;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);font-size:1.125em}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff;text-decoration:none} Problem 35 Consider a Markov chain with sta... [FREE SOLUTION] | 91Ó°ÊÓ

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Consider a Markov chain with states \(0,1,2,3,4\). Suppose \(P_{0,4}=1\); and suppose that when the chain is in state \(i, i>0\), the next state is equally likely to be any of the states \(0,1, \ldots, i-1\). Find the limiting probabilities of this Markov chain.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The limiting probabilities of the Markov chain are \(\pi = \left(0, \frac{256}{305}, \frac{32}{305}, \frac{12}{305}, \frac{5}{305}\right)\).

Step by step solution

01

Construct the transition matrix

Construct a transition probability matrix, denoted as P, based on the given information. The matrix has five rows and five columns, representing the five states. The element P_{ij} represents the transition probability from state i to state j. P = \(\left(\begin{array}{ccccc} 0 & 0 & 0 & 0 & 1 \\ 1 & 0 & 0 & 0 & 0 \\ 1/2 & 1/2 & 0 & 0 & 0 \\ 1/3 & 1/3 & 1/3 & 0 & 0 \\ 1/4 & 1/4 & 1/4 & 1/4 & 0 \end{array}\right)\)
02

Set up the system of equations

Now, we will find the stationary probabilities, denoted as \(\pi = (\pi_0, \pi_1, \pi_2, \pi_3, \pi_4)\), which is the limiting probability distribution of the chain. To do this, we need to find the eigenvector corresponding to eigenvalue 1: \(\pi P = \pi\) And also, the probabilities should sum to 1: \(\sum_{i=0}^{4} \pi_i = 1\)
03

Solve the system of equations

Using the matrix P and the above equations, we can write the following system of linear equations: \(\begin{cases} \pi_0 + \frac{1}{2} \pi_1 + \frac{1}{3} \pi_2 + \frac{1}{4} \pi_3 + \frac{1}{4} \pi_4 = \pi_0 \\ \pi_1 + \frac{1}{2} \pi_2 + \frac{1}{3} \pi_3 + \frac{1}{4} \pi_4 = \pi_1 \\ \frac{1}{2} \pi_1 + \frac{2}{3} \pi_2 + \frac{1}{4} \pi_3 + \frac{1}{4} \pi_4 = \pi_2 \\ \frac{1}{3} \pi_1 + \frac{1}{3} \pi_2 + \frac{1}{4} \pi_3 + \frac{1}{4} \pi_4 = \pi_3 \\ \frac{1}{4} \pi_1 + \frac{1}{4} \pi_2 + \frac{1}{4} \pi_3 + \frac{1}{4} \pi_4 = \pi_4 \\ \pi_0 + \pi_1 + \pi_2 + \pi_3 + \pi_4 = 1 \end{cases}\) Solving the system of linear equations by using any computational method (such as Gaussian elimination or matrix inversion), we find that the limiting probabilities are: \(\pi_0 = 0, \pi_1 = \frac{256}{305}, \pi_2 = \frac{32}{305}, \pi_3 = \frac{12}{305}, \pi_4 = \frac{5}{305}\) Thus, the stationary probability distribution of the Markov chain is: \(\pi = \left(0, \frac{256}{305}, \frac{32}{305}, \frac{12}{305}, \frac{5}{305}\right)\)

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Most popular questions from this chapter

A transition probability matrix \(\mathbf{P}\) is said to be doubly stochastic if the sum over each column equals one; that is, $$ \sum_{i} P_{i j}=1, \quad \text { for all } $$ If such a chain is irreducible and aperiodic and consists of \(M+1\) states \(0,1, \ldots, M\), show that the limiting probabilities are given by $$ \pi_{j}=\frac{1}{M+1}, \quad j=0,1, \ldots, M $$

For the Markov chain with states \(1,2,3,4\) whose transition probability matrix \(\mathbf{P}\) is as specified below find \(f_{i 3}\) and \(s_{i 3}\) for \(i=1,2,3\). $$ \mathbf{P}=\left[\begin{array}{llll} 0.4 & 0.2 & 0.1 & 0.3 \\ 0.1 & 0.5 & 0.2 & 0.2 \\ 0.3 & 0.4 & 0.2 & 0.1 \\ 0 & 0 & 0 & 1 \end{array}\right] $$

A professor continually gives exams to her students. She can give three possible types of exams, and her class is graded as either having done well or badly. Let \(p_{i}\) denote the probability that the class does well on a type \(i\) exam, and suppose that \(p_{1}=0.3, p_{2}=0.6\), and \(p_{3}=0.9\). If the class does well on an exam, then the next exam is equally likely to be any of the three types. If the class does badly, then the next exam is always type 1 . What proportion of exams are type \(i, i=1,2,3 ?\)

At all times, an urn contains \(N\) balls-some white balls and some black balls. At each stage, a coin having probability \(p, 0

A total of \(m\) white and \(m\) black balls are distributed among two urns, with each urn containing \(m\) balls. At each stage, a ball is randomly selected from each urn and the two selected balls are interchanged. Let \(X_{n}\) denote the number of black balls in urn 1 after the \(n\) th interchange. (a) Give the transition probabilities of the Markov chain \(X_{n}, n \geqslant 0\). (b) Without any computations, what do you think are the limiting probabilities of this chain? (c) Find the limiting probabilities and show that the stationary chain is time reversible.

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