/*! This file is auto-generated */ .wp-block-button__link{color:#fff;background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;text-decoration:none;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);font-size:1.125em}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff;text-decoration:none} Problem 41 In a certain species of rats, bl... [FREE SOLUTION] | 91Ó°ÊÓ

91Ó°ÊÓ

In a certain species of rats, black dominates over brown. Suppose that a black rat with two black parents has a brown sibling. (a) What is the probability that this rat is a pure black rat (as opposed to being a hybrid with one black and one brown gene)? (b) Suppose that when the black rat is mated with a brown rat, all five of their offspring are black. Now, what is the probability that the rat is a pure black rat?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability that the rat is a pure black rat (as opposed to being a hybrid) is \( \frac{1}{3} \) without any additional information. When given the information that the black rat is mated with a brown rat, and all five of their offspring are black, the probability that the rat is a pure black rat is updated to \( \frac{16}{17} \).

Step by step solution

01

Understand the problem and the genetic rules

In a case where black dominates over brown, a black rat can have one of the following two genotypes BB (pure black with two black genes) or Bb (hybrid with one black and one brown gene). Brown rats will have the genotype bb (two brown genes). The fact that a black rat with two black parents has a brown sibling suggests that the parents are hybrid. If any parent had been pure black (BB), they wouldn't be able to produce a brown offspring since they would only pass on a black gene (B) to any of their offsprings. Therefore, the parents must have the genotypes Bb.
02

Calculate the probability(a)

To calculate the probability of the rat being a pure black rat, we need to consider all the possible genotypes it can have and find the probability of having a BB genotype. When a hybrid rat (Bb) mates with another hybrid (Bb), the offspring can have 4 different combinations of genotypes: BB, Bb, bB, and bb. Let's find the probability of the offspring being BB given that it’s a black rat: P(BB | Black Rat) = \( \frac{P(BB \cap Black Rat)}{P(Black Rat)} \) Since all BB rats are black, P(BB | Black Rat) = 1. Now, we need to find the probability of the offspring being a black rat: P(Black Rat) = P(BB or Bb or bB) = P(BB) + P(Bb) + P(bB) Since the parents are hybrids (Bb), the probability of each genotype outcome is: P(BB) = \( \frac{1}{4} \) P(Bb) = \( \frac{1}{4} \) P(bB) = \( \frac{1}{4} \) P(bb) = \( \frac{1}{4} \) Then, P(Black Rat) = \( \frac{1}{4} \) + \( \frac{1}{4} \) + \( \frac{1}{4} \) = \( \frac{3}{4} \) Now, we can find the probability of the offspring being a pure black rat (BB): P(BB | Black Rat) = \( \frac{P(BB)}{P(Black Rat)} \) = \( \frac{\frac{1}{4}}{\frac{3}{4}} \) = \( \frac{1}{3} \) Thus, the probability that the rat is a pure black rat (BB) is \( \frac{1}{3} \).
03

Update the probability after mating information (b)

Now that we know that when the black rat is mated with a brown rat (bb), all five offspring are black, we need to find the probability that the rat is a pure black rat considering this additional information. Let's label the events: Event A: The rat is a pure black rat (BB) Event B: All five offspring are black Now, we need to find P(A | B), i.e., the probability that the rat is a pure black rat given that all five offspring are black. P(A | B) = \( \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)} \) From step 2, we know that: P(A) = \( \frac{1}{3} \) P(B | A) represents the probability that all five offspring are black when the black rat is a pure black. Since a pure black rat can only pass the black gene to its offspring, P(B | A) = 1. P(B | A') represents the probability that all five offspring are black when the black rat is not pure black (Bb). A hybrid rat (Bb) mating with a brown rat (bb) can produce black (Bb) or brown (bb) offspring with equal probability. Thus, P(B | A') = \( (0.5)^5 \) = \( \frac{1}{32} \) P(A') = 1 - P(A) = \( \frac{2}{3} \) Now, we can find P(A ∩ B) and P(B): P(A ∩ B) = P(A) * P(B | A) = \( \frac{1}{3} \) * 1 = \( \frac{1}{3} \) P(A' ∩ B) = P(A') * P(B | A') = \( \frac{2}{3} \) * \( \frac{1}{32} \) = \( \frac{1}{48} \) P(B) = P(A ∩ B) + P(A' ∩ B) = \( \frac{1}{3} \) + \( \frac{1}{48} \) = \( \frac{17}{48} \) Finally, we can find P(A | B): P(A | B) = \( \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)} \) = \( \frac{\frac{1}{3}}{\frac{17}{48}} \) = \( \frac{16}{17} \) Thus, the updated probability that the rat is a pure black rat given that all five offspring are black is \( \frac{16}{17} \).

Unlock Step-by-Step Solutions & Ace Your Exams!

  • Full Textbook Solutions

    Get detailed explanations and key concepts

  • Unlimited Al creation

    Al flashcards, explanations, exams and more...

  • Ads-free access

    To over 500 millions flashcards

  • Money-back guarantee

    We refund you if you fail your exam.

Over 30 million students worldwide already upgrade their learning with 91Ó°ÊÓ!

One App. One Place for Learning.

All the tools & learning materials you need for study success - in one app.

Get started for free

Most popular questions from this chapter

Three prisoners are informed by their jailer that one of them has been chosen at random to be executed, and the other two are to be freed. Prisoner \(A\) asks the jailer to tell him privately which of his fellow prisoners will be set free, claiming that there would be no harm in divulging this information, since he already knows that at least one will go free. The jailer refuses to answer this question, pointing out that if \(A\) knew which of his fellows were to be set free, then his own probability of being executed would rise from \(\frac{1}{3}\) to \(\frac{1}{2}\), since he would then be one of two prisoners. What do you think of the jailer's reasoning?

Suppose we have ten coins which are such that if the \(i\) th one is flipped then heads will appear with probability \(i / 10, i=1,2, \ldots, 10\). When one of the coins is randomly selected and flipped, it shows heads. What is the conditional probability that it was the fifth coin?

A box contains three marbles: one red, one green, and one blue. Consider an experiment that consists of taking one marble from the box then replacing it in the box and drawing a second marble from the box. What is the sample space? If, at all times, each marble in the box is equally likely to be selected, what is the probability of each point in the sample space?

Suppose that \(P(E)=0.6\). What can you say about \(P(E \mid F)\) when (a) \(E\) and \(F\) are mutually exclusive? (b) \(E \subset F ?\) (c) \(F \subset E ?\)

Suppose all \(n\) men at a party throw their hats in the center of the room. Each man then randomly selects a hat. Show that the probability that none of the \(n\) men selects his own hat is $$ \frac{1}{2 !}-\frac{1}{3 !}+\frac{1}{4 !}-+\cdots \frac{(-1)^{n}}{n !} $$ Note that as \(n \rightarrow \infty\) this converges to \(e^{-1}\). Is this surprising?

See all solutions

Recommended explanations on Math Textbooks

View all explanations

What do you think about this solution?

We value your feedback to improve our textbook solutions.

Study anywhere. Anytime. Across all devices.