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Confidence Interval Changes State whether each of the following changes would make a confidence interval wider or narrower. (Assume that nothing else changes.) a. Changing from a \(95 \%\) level of confidence to a \(90 \%\) level of confidence b. Changing from a sample size of 30 to a sample size of 20 c. Changing from a standard deviation of 3 inches to a standard deviation of \(2.5\) inches

Short Answer

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a) The confidence interval would be narrower when moving from a 95% level of confidence to a 90% level of confidence. b) The confidence interval would be wider when changing the sample size from 30 to 20. c) The confidence interval would be narrower when changing the standard deviation from 3 inches to 2.5 inches.

Step by step solution

01

Analyze the change in level of confidence

The level of confidence is directly proportional to the width of the confidence interval. A higher level of confidence will result in a wider confidence interval because you need a larger range to capture the unknown population parameter with more certainty. Therefore, moving from a 95% level of confidence to a 90% level of confidence would make the confidence interval narrower.
02

Analyze the change in sample size

The relationship between sample size and the width of the confidence interval is inversely proportional. A larger sample size would lead to a narrower confidence interval. This is because the larger the sample size, the more information you have, and the less variability there is in estimates of the population parameter. Thus, changing from a sample size of 30 to a sample size of 20 would make the confidence interval wider.
03

Analyze the change in standard deviation

The standard deviation is directly proportional to the width of the confidence interval. A larger standard deviation implies greater dispersion in the population, and hence you need a wider confidence interval to capture this uncertainty. Thus, changing from a standard deviation of 3 inches to a standard deviation of 2.5 inches would make the confidence interval narrower.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Level of Confidence
Understanding the level of confidence is crucial when we're constructing confidence intervals in statistics. Essentially, the level of confidence denotes the probability that the confidence interval will indeed contain the true population parameter upon repeated sampling. If we visualize confidence as a safety net, the level of confidence tells us how sure we are that this net will catch the true value every time we sample.

When you increase the level of confidence, say from 90% to 95%, you are asking for more assurance that your interval captures the population parameter. This added assurance requires making the net wider—hence, a wider confidence interval. Conversely, decreasing the level of confidence from 95% to 90% narrows your net, as you're accepting a higher risk of missing the parameter.

It's a bit like setting the sensitivity on a metal detector; higher sensitivity (confidence) may yield more false alarms (wider intervals), but you're less likely to miss something important. This concept helps in understanding why confidence interval width adjusts with the level of certainty you're aiming for.
Sample Size
Sample size has a significant impact on the accuracy of statistical estimates. Picture it as trying to understand the average height in a room—if you measure more people, you'll more likely conclude close to the actual average. In statistical terms, a larger sample size provides more information and usually results in a more accurate estimate of the population parameter, assuming that the sample is representative of the population.

As the sample size increases, the resulting confidence interval narrows because you have less variability and uncertainty. Each additional data point gives you a clearer picture of the true state of affairs. On the flip side, a smaller sample size means you have less assurance about your findings, leading to a broader confidence interval.

It's crucial to note that sample size changes are more impactful when the total number is relatively small. For example, increasing the sample size from 20 to 40 can have a more significant effect than going from 1000 to 1020. This non-linear relationship is a key consideration when planning studies or experiments.
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is a measure of the dispersion or spread of a set of values. In the context of confidence intervals, the standard deviation tells us about the variability of individual measurements. Think of it as how widely scattered the data points are around the mean.

A larger standard deviation indicates that the data points are spread out more widely, which translates to more uncertainty in estimating the population parameter. This uncertainty necessitates a wider confidence interval to ensure that it is likely to contain the true mean. Conversely, a smaller standard deviation suggests that data points are closer to the mean, leading to a narrower confidence interval, since there is less uncertainty about where the population parameter lies.

It's a bit like trying to predict where a scatterbrained cat will nap—you'll need a broad prediction net if she's all over the place (high standard deviation), but can be more specific if she mostly sticks to her favorite sunny spot (low standard deviation). Understanding how standard deviation affects the width of confidence intervals can greatly improve one’s statistical analysis.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Potatoes The weights of four randomly and independently selected bags of potatoes labeled 20 pounds were found to be \(21.0\), \(21.5,20.5\), and \(21.2\) pounds. Assume Normality. a. Find a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the mean weight of all bags of potatoes. b. Does the interval capture \(20.0\) pounds? Is there enough evidence to reject a mean weight of 20 pounds?

Ages A study of all the students at a small college showed a mean age of \(20.7\) and a standard deviation of \(2.5\) years. Are these numbers statistics or parameters? Explain. b. Label both numbers with their appropriate symbol (such as \(\bar{x}, \mu, s\), or \(\sigma)\).

Surfers Surfers and statistics students Rex Robinson and Sandy Hudson collected data on the number of days on which surfers surfed in the last month for 30 longboard (L) users and 30 shortboard (S) users. Treat these data as though they were from two independent random samples. Test the hypothesis that the mean days surfed for all longboarders is larger than the mean days surfed for all shortboarders (because longboards can go out in many different surfing conditions). Use a level of significance of \(0.05\). Longboard: \(4,9,8,4,8,8,7,9,6,7,10,12,12,10,14,12,15,13\), \(10,11,19,19,14,11,16,19,20,22,20,22\) Shortboard: \(6,4,4,6,8,8,7,9,4,7,8,5,9,8,4,15,12,10,11,12\), \(12,11,14,10,11,13,15,10,20,20\)

9.17 (Example 5) Age of Used Vans The mean age of all 118 used Toyota vans for sale (see exercise \(9.16\) ) was \(3.1\) years with a standard deviation of \(2.7\) years. The distribution of ages is rightskewed. For a statistics project, a student randomly selects 35 vans from this data set and finds the mean of the sample is \(2.7\) years with a standard deviation of \(2.1\) years. a. Find each of these values: \(\mu=? \quad \sigma=? \bar{x}=? \quad s=?\) b. Which of the values listed in part a are parameters? Which are statistics? c. Are the conditions for using the CLT fulfilled? What would be the shape of the approximate sampling distribution of a large number of means, each from a sample of 35 vans?

Deflated Footballs? Colts In the 2015 AFC Championship game, there was a charge the New England Patriots deflated their footballs for an advantage. The Patriots' opponents during the championship game were the Indianapolis Colts. Measurements of the Colts footballs were taken. The balls should be inflated to between \(12.5\) and \(13.5\) pounds per square inch (psi). The measurements were \(12.70,12.75,12.50,12.55,12.35,12.30,12.95\), and \(12.15 \mathrm{psi}\) (Source: http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/ Deflategate.pdf) a. Test the hypothesis that the population mean is less than \(12.5\) psi using ? significance level of \(0.05\). State clearly whether the Colts' balls are deflated or not. Assume the conditions for a hypothesis test are satisfied. b. Use the data to construct a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the mean psi for the Colts' footballs. How does this confidence interval support your conclusion in part a?

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