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When comparing two sample proportions with a two-sided alternative hypothesis, all other factors being equal, will you get a smaller p-value if the sample proportions are close together or if they are far apart? Explain.

Short Answer

Expert verified
When all other factors are kept constant, you will get a smaller p-value if the sample proportions are far apart compared to when they are close together. This is because more extreme differences are less likely to occur by chance under the null hypothesis, leading to smaller p-values.

Step by step solution

01

Understand P-value

The p-value in hypothesis testing represents the probability of obtaining a result at least as extreme as the one that was actually observed, assuming that the null hypothesis is true. A small p-value (usually ≤ 0.05) leads us to reject the null hypothesis, as it indicates a low probability of obtaining such results if the null hypothesis was true. Conversely, a larger p-value suggests that the observed results can happen quite frequently under the null hypothesis, so there's not enough evidence to reject it.
02

Understand the Role of Proportions Distance

In comparing two sample proportions, when all other factors are equal, the farther apart the proportions are, the more evidence we have against the null hypothesis. An increased difference in proportions will make the observed results seem more 'extreme' and therefore less likely to occur under the null hypothesis of no difference.
03

Relate Proportions Distance and P-value

The p-value depends on the distance between the proportions. Larger distance between the proportions results in a smaller p-value assuming all else constant. This is because far apart proportions suggest that the two proportions are significantly different from each other, reducing the likelihood of the observed result under the null hypothesis of no difference, thus decreasing the p-value.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

P-value in Hypothesis Testing
In the realm of statistics, the p-value is a crucial metric that helps determine the strength of the evidence against the null hypothesis in a hypothesis test. It quantifies the probability of getting a sample statistic that is at least as extreme as the one observed, given that the null hypothesis is true. This might sound complex, but it's like finding out the odds of an incredibly rare event actually happening if we assume that everything is business as usual.

For example, if you were to compare the heights of men and women in a particular region and found a significant difference, the p-value tells you how likely it is to see such a difference just by chance. A smaller p-value (<0.05 is a common threshold) suggests that the difference in heights is uncommon enough under normal circumstances to consider it significant—the hypothesis that there is no difference could be rejected. Larger p-values show that the observed difference could very well happen by chance, and thus, the evidence isn't strong enough to oppose the notion of no significant difference.

When it comes to hypothesis testing, think of the p-value as a measuring stick for strangeness or rarity. The lower the p-value, the stranger your observed result is under the assumption that the null hypothesis is correct. Low p-values are red flags that indicate it might be time to ditch the old assumptions and accept that something more unusual may be occurring.
Null Hypothesis
At its core, the null hypothesis is a general statement or default position positing that there is no relationship between two measured phenomena. It serves as a skeptical friend, challenging researchers to prove it wrong with solid evidence before accepting an alternative as truth.

The null hypothesis is commonly symbolized as H0 and is what you test when performing any kind of hypothesis test. It's the starting line for any experiment or study, representing the skeptic's view that any observed differences or effects are due to chance alone. In the context of comparing sample proportions, the null hypothesis might state that the proportion of successes (like voters favoring a particular policy) in two groups is the same.

Why is it so important? The null hypothesis fulfills a critical role in the scientific method. It provides a clear and testable statement that can be challenged with data. Without it, researchers wouldn't have a standardized method to test for statistical significance. The goal of many studies is to gather enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis, thereby supporting the notion that there is indeed something interesting or significant happening that deserves further attention.
Sample Proportions Distance
Speaking of sample proportions distance, we're diving into how different two sample proportions are from one another. Imagine we have two baskets of fruit, and we're counting the number of apples in each. If one basket has a proportion of 0.5 apples (half of its contents are apples) and the other has a proportion of 0.7 apples, then the distance between the sample proportions is 0.2.

The greater the distance between these proportions, the more evidence we have to suggest that there's a significant difference between the two samples. This distance directly influences the p-value in hypothesis testing; it is a measure of the extremeness of the observed statistic under the assumption of the null hypothesis—how surprising or unusual it is.

In simpler terms, if those baskets represented groups in a study and you found a substantial distance between the sample proportions, you'd be more likely to say, 'Wow, these groups really are different!' The consequence? A smaller p-value, which translates to stronger evidence that these groups indeed differ in their proportion of apples, leading to potential rejection of the null hypothesis that both baskets have the same proportion of apples.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

A taste test is done to see whether a person can tell Coke from Pepsi. In each case, 20 random and independent trials are done (half with Pepsi and half with Coke) in which the person determines whether she or he is drinking Coke or Pepsi. One person gets 13 right out of 20 trials. Which of the following is the correct figure to test the hypothesis that the person can tell the difference? Explain your choice.

A proponent of a new proposition on a ballot wants to know the population percentage of people who support the bill. Suppose a poll is taken, and 580 out of 1000 randomly selected people support the proposition. Should the proponent use a hypothesis test or a confidence interval to answer this question? Explain. If it is a hypothesis test, state the hypotheses and find the test statistic, p-value, and conclusion. Use a \(5 \%\) significance level. If a confidence interval is appropriate, find the approximate \(95 \%\) confidence interval. In both cases, assume that the necessary conditions have been met.

A 2018 Gallup poll of 2228 randomly selected U.S. adults found that \(39 \%\) planned to watch at least a "fair amount" of the 2018 Winter Olympics. In \(2014,46 \%\) of U.S. adults reported planning to watch at least a "fair amount." a. Does this sample give evidence that the proportion of U.S. adults who planned to watch the 2018 Winter Olympics was less than the proportion who planned to do so in 2014 ? Use a \(0.05\) significance level. b. After conducting the hypothesis test, a further question one might ask is what proportion of all U.S. adults planned to watch at least a "fair amount" of the 2018 Winter Olympics. Use the sample data to construct a \(90 \%\) confidence interval for the population proportion. How does your confidence interval support your hypothesis test conclusion?

St. Louis County is \(24 \%\) African American. Suppose you are looking at jury pools, each with 200 members, in St. Louis County. The null hypothesis is that the probability of an African American being selected into the jury pool is \(24 \%\). a. How many African Americans would you expect on a jury pool of 200 people if the null hypothesis is true? b. Suppose pool A contains 40 African American people out of 200 , and pool B contains 26 African American people out of 200 . Which will have a smaller p-value and why?

The null hypothesis on true/false tests is that the student is guessing, and the proportion of right answers is \(0.50 .\) A student taking a five-question true/false quiz gets 4 right out of 5 . She says that this shows that she knows the material, because the one-tailed p-value from the one-proportion \(z\) -test is \(0.090\), and she is using a significance level of \(0.10 .\) What is wrong with her approach?

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